Madhesh Province, which sends 32 members to the House of Representatives, has emerged as one of the most closely watched electoral battlegrounds, with 1,054 candidates contesting the polls. Dhanusha has the highest number of candidates at 154, while Saptari has the fewest, with 104.

Home to the country’s largest population, Madhesh has long been considered the stronghold of Madhesh-based parties. But major national forces—the Nepali Congress (NC), CPN-UML and the Nepal Communist Party (NCP)—have consistently invested heavily in the region in a bid to expand their footprint, making each election fiercely competitive.

This time, the contest is marked by an unusual mix: senior leaders abandoning long-held parties, former ministers, party chiefs and even prime ministerial aspirants all entering the fray, raising the stakes across constituencies.

Who is contesting where

Janata Samajbadi Party, Nepal (JSP-N) chair Upendra Yadav is contesting from Saptari-3. Defeated from Saptari-2 in the 2022 elections, Yadav entered Parliament later through a by-election from Bara-2. His 2022 victor, Janamat Party chair CK Raut, is again contesting from Saptari-2.

Adding intrigue, Satish Singh—whom Raut had helped install as Madhesh chief minister—has quit Janamat to contest from Saptari-2 on a Swabhiman Party ticket, after resigning as a provincial assembly member.

JSP-N vice-chair and former minister Raj Kishor Yadav has returned to his old constituency, Siraha-4. Bablu Gupta, who served as youth and sports minister in the post–Gen Z movement government, resigned to contest from Siraha-1 as a Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) candidate.

CPN-UML deputy general secretary Raghuvir Mahaseth is contesting from Dhanusha-4, while his wife Julikumari Mahato is in the race from Dhanusha-3. The same constituency also features Nepali Congress former vice-president Bimalendra Nidhi and RSP spokesperson Manish Jha.

NCP leader Matrika Prasad Yadav is contesting from Dhanusha-1, where he lost in 2022 to JSP-N’s Dipak Karki. JSP leader and former minister Sharat Singh Bhandari is contesting from Mahottari-2, while NCP’s Giriraj Mani Pokharel is in Mahottari-1.

In Sarlahi-2, Rastriya Mukti Party Nepal chair Rajendra Mahato is up against NCP’s Mahendra Ray Yadav, while senior NCP leader Narayan Kaji Shrestha is contesting from Sarlahi-3. Sarlahi-4 has drawn particular attention, with Nepali Congress president and declared prime ministerial candidate Gagan Thapa in the race, alongside former Congress leader Amresh Singh from the RSP.

Former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal is contesting from Rautahat-1 on an NCP ticket. Aam Janata Party chair Prabhu Sah is in Rautahat-3, while journalist Rishi Dhamala is contesting from Rautahat-4. Two-time Congress MP Dev Prasad Timilsina is also seeking re-election there.

Congress co-general secretary Farmullah Mansur is contesting from Bara-3. In Parsa-1, JSP leader Pradeep Yadav—who has previously won from the seat—switched parties at the last moment to contest on a CPN-UML ticket. Congress has repeated former minister Ajay Chaurasia in Parsa-2.

The presence of established figures, high-profile defectors and new faces has injected excitement into Madhesh’s electoral contest.

New forces seek momentum, old parties defend turf

Since nominations closed, campaign activity has intensified. Candidates from old and new parties, as well as independents, have stepped up door-to-door outreach, rallies and strategic meetings. Election debates now dominate streets and social media alike.

As elsewhere in the country, Madhesh voters are weighing old versus new parties. Public frustration with traditional parties runs deep, fuelled by allegations of corruption, poor governance, factionalism and unmet expectations—posing challenges even for established forces to retain their core vote.

However, turning discontent into votes has not been easy for emerging parties either. Former teacher Vishnu Prasad Yadav of Mirchaiya notes that while social media buzz can influence urban voters, it is harder to convert online momentum into ballots in rural areas.

“In villages, votes are driven by organisation, candidates’ public image, personal ties and local issues—not just social media trends,” he said. “Old parties field experienced, well-known candidates, while new parties often put up unfamiliar faces, making it harder to translate anger into votes.”

Madhesh voters are particularly sensitive to issues of federalism, self-governance, inclusion, identity and rights. Critics say the RSP, despite its popularity elsewhere, remains formally unclear on these agendas.

Political analyst Randhir Chaudhary says this has left many voters conflicted. “There is deep resentment against traditional parties, but the new force has yet to inspire confidence in Madhesh,” he said, pointing to the RSP’s earlier boycott of provincial elections. “As a result, voters are caught between dissatisfaction and caution—politically aware, yet highly sensitive.”

As polling day approaches, Madhesh’s 32 seats appear set to decide not only winners and losers, but whether voter anger reshapes the region’s politics—or entrenched networks hold firm once again.