Pushpa Kamal Dahal, coordinator of Nepali Communist Party and leader of the Maoist insurgency, has once again shifted his electoral constituency. For the upcoming election of the House of Representatives slated for March 5, Dahal, also a former prime minister, has opted for Rukum East, a district long regarded as a bastion of the Maoist movement.

While addressing a party mass meeting in neighbouring Rukum West recently, Dahal publicly revealed his plan to contest from Rukum East. Party insiders say Dahal’s decision to contest from Rukum East is almost certain, with only formal nomination remaining.

Dahal has a history of hopping constituencies. Over the years, Dahal has chosen constituencies where the Maoists enjoyed organisational depth and loyal voter bases. He contested from Rolpa-2 and Kathmandu-10 in the 2008 Constituent Assembly elections, winning from both constituencies. In the second Constituent Assembly elections in 2013, he was elected from Siraha-5 but lost in Kathmandu-10. He shifted to Chitwan-3 in 2017. And then to Gorkha-2 in 2022. Now he is preparing to return to what many describe as the ideological birthplace of the Maoist insurgency.

Dahal, however, has ditched the explicit ‘Maoist’ branding. After unifying with the CPN (Unified Socialist) led by Madhav Kumar Nepal, Dahal became the coordinator of the newly minted Nepali Communist Party. His ideological deviations—from opposing parliamentary politics altogether to forging an alliance with the right-wing pro-monarchy Rastriya Prajatantra Party to form the goverment—are well-noted. In 2023, he worshiped at a Hindu temple in Madhya Pradesh, India, an act that critics described as unsuitable for a politician of the Marxist-Maoist stripe.

Now critics point out the irony that Dahal has had to rely on former Maoist strongholds to enter Parliament. Rukum and Rolpa remain districts where the legacy of the conflict still shapes political loyalties.

Rukum was divided into Rukum East and Rukum West after the promulgation of the constitution in 2015. Since the 2008 elections, Maoist candidates have consistently won from both the districts. In the undivided Rukum, former Maoist leader and minister Janardan Sharma won consecutive elections. After the split, Kamala Roka won from Rukum East in 2017, followed by Purna Bahadur Gharti in 2022. In Rukum West, Sharma remained dominant, but this year he parted ways with Dahal and launched his own Pragatisheel Loktantrik Party.

That split has opened space for new contenders. Among them is Sandip Pun, a young leader who lost both parents during the Maoist insurgency and is expected to contest from Sharma’s PLP. Candidates from the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML and the Rastriya Swatantra Party are also preparing to challenge Dahal. Hence, winning the election is unlikely to be smooth sailing for Dahal.

Bikram Pun, ward 6 chair of Bhume Rural Municipality in Rukum East, sees both opportunity and challenge in Dahal’s candidacy. “When a national leader contests from the district, our issues reach the highest level. But local leaders can be overshadowed,” he said, adding that internal party disputes have grown in recent years, prompting the district committee itself to recommend Dahal’s candidacy. “A widely accepted central leader could reduce factionalism within the party,” said Bikram, who was elected as the ward chief as Maoist candidate.

Factional feud has indeed troubled the party. In the 2022 provincial elections, Maoist rebel candidate in Rukum East (A) Sarul Pun defeated the party’s official candidate Tej Bahadur Oli, intensifying internal rifts. “We expect the coordinator to restore balance,” said a local party worker, claiming opposition parties remain weak organisationally.

Electoral data supports NCP strength in Rukum East. There are three local units—Sisne, Bhume and Putha Uttarganga— in the district. Chiefs of all three local bodies are from the NCP. Of 31 wards, more than half are held by the party.

Yet voter sentiment is not uniform. Samir Shah, aged 23, is the first-time voter from the district headquarters. He plans to vote for a new face. “Dahal has had many chances. Now someone new should get the opportunity,” said Shah, who recently completed Grade 12 and helps his parents run a hotel. According to him, the Gen Z movement has influenced young voters to demand accountability and inclusion.

Jeet Bahadur Budha Magar of Mahat village, who is on a home leave from foreign employment, expressed deep frustration. “Leaders ruined the country. That’s why we go abroad,” he said while painting his house before returning to Portugal. “The Maoist ideology was good, but leaders failed in implementation.” He said families of martyrs and the disappeared have received little beyond symbolic compensation.

“All our leaders seem to do is drain the state coffers. It is better [for those like us] to go abroad, earn some money and support one’s family,” said Jeet Bahadur. He said that because the country’s overall situation and politics remain unstable, the younger generation is increasingly being forced to seek opportunities overseas. “You find young men and women leaving for foreign countries in almost every household in the district,” he said.

Rukum East is among the districts with a high number of youths migrating for foreign employment. In recent times, the number of young people from Rukum, Dang and neighbouring districts who have travelled to the United States through ‘donkey trail’ and later been deported has also increased.

Elderly locals are skeptical too. “We hear Dahal may come, but no one has asked for votes yet,” said 65-year-old Ash Bahadur Budha Magar, chair of a local agricultural cooperative in Mahat village. “Is he coming to ensure food, shelter and clothing where the war was fought, or just because he cannot win elsewhere?” Around 80 percent of Rukum East’s 34,772 voters belong to the Magar community, with 660 new voters registered this year.

Insurgency memories remain vivid in Mahat village, where many people were killed by security forces and Maoist rebels. A “war museum”, statues of fallen police and Maoist fighters and a peace park now stand there. Lain Kumari Sunar, who works at the museum, said Dahal’s candidacy excites her. “This place is deeply tied to the conflict,” she said. “Whoever we elect must improve roads, irrigation projects, drinking water projects and schools.” She noted that taps run dry in the dry season and irrigation remains inadequate for barley, wheat and maize.

Despite the Mid-Hill Highway passing through Rukum East, many wards still lack road access. “We carry produce on mules at high cost,” said Jeet Bahadur Khatri of ward 8 of Putha Uttarganga Rural Municipality. Only half of the total 14 wards in the rural municipality have access to the road. Health services are limited, forcing patients to be carried or airlifted. “Leaders promise roads during elections and disappear until the next one,” said Dhan Budha of Sisne.

Rukum East also holds symbolic weight. The Chunwang meeting that pushed the Maoists towards the peace process was held here, as were key disciplinary decisions during the war. Former Speaker Purna Bahadur Gharti, leaders Ganeshman Pun and Kamala Roka all hail from this region.

In 2022, Maoist candidate Gharti secured 12,262 votes while his nearest rival Kailash Kumar Malla of UML bagged 5,211 votes.

Tibra Gautam, chief of Sisne Campus, believes voter behaviour may change this time. “Older voters are tired, but young people show curiosity,” he said, warning that Maoist legacy alone may no longer suffice. “After the Gen Z movement, there is hope for something new.”

Meanwhile, dissent persists within the NCP itself. Some leaders say that local leaders should contest the election, not an outsider like Dahal. Subodhraj Sherpali, a local NCP activist, argues that a local candidate deserves the chance. But the party district in-charge Tej Bahadur Oli insists Dahal’s candidacy is final. “Our responsibility is to make him win,” he said.