Farmers are heroes without capes. They’ve been around for a long time, braved political systems and dealt with unpredictable markets, trade policies and extreme weather events. They built the foundation on which human civilisation stands today—wherever agriculture flourished, societies thrived.

The occupation is also one of the most ingenious. Farmers raise living organisms in a complex environment without which we wouldn’t have food, without which civilisations would quickly spiral into chaos and consequently collapse. History is full of anecdotes. Whenever times are tough for farmers, the socioeconomic and political order takes the heat.

And these are not easy times.

Governments worldwide are taking stock of the fuel, food and fertiliser price shocks linked to the Russia-Ukraine war, and the effects on supply chains amid the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Trade restrictions on essential commodities in the wake of the war have further aggravated worldwide inflationary pressures. It has forced governments to take drastic steps to protect their economies and increase stockpiles of essentials as farmers brace for fertiliser shortages.

In its analysis of the commodity markets, the World Bank last week said the impacts of the war will be felt most in the developing countries, and could last until at least the end of 2024, raising stagflation risks.

If Farming 101 or the proverbial "as you sow, so shall you reap" means anything to the Deuba-led coalition government, it is time we prevented more harm to the country and averted undesirable situations that we may quickly find ourselves in if we do nothing more than respond with knee-jerk reactions as challenges arise. And challenges will arise given the global context and how all our economic indicators have turned red, depleting the national coffers of foreign reserves.

That global prices of essential fertilisers have more than doubled or may soar higher is not news anymore. What should worry the leadership and stakeholders is that there might be no fertiliser to procure even if we are willing to pay. Or even food. That kind of scenario is highly likely because fertilisers from Russia and Ukraine, the two biggest suppliers, have been severely disrupted, affecting even India and China. Like lifesaving Covid-19 vaccines, what will we do if India, our primary supplier of fuel, food and fertiliser, turns its head to fix its shortages first? What if cargo movement from China remains under a quota system?

As inconvenient as these questions are or the endless loop of uncertainties that the farmers and eventually all of us find ourselves in every year, both the government and stakeholders need to drop their business-as-usual approach and move from short-term fixes to long-term solutions.

Like in the pandemic, the impacts of the ongoing war is another opportunity to tackle the fertiliser shortage head on, but fertiliser is just one part of the problem. Many important questions about our agronomy, which heavily relies on imported seeds and fertilisers, remain unanswered. The leadership needs to grasp that agriculture is the mainstay of our economy. Without creative and scientific answers, our economy will continue to take a direct hit.