The Israel-US attack on Iran, which killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is going to have serious repercussions for the Middle East geopolitics and Pakistan’s approach to the region. Pakistan, through its participation in the inaugural Board of Peace meeting in Washington, which concluded on February 19, with 49 countries participating, may, for the time being, put in question the Gaza peace plan. The US committed $10 billion to US President Donald Trump’s 20-point Gaza Peace plan. Some Muslim-majority countries committed both troops and funds to implement Trump’s much-vaunted peace plan. According to reports, nine Muslim countries have committed to providing a total of $7 billion. Pakistan welcomed the 20-point peace plan and, on February 20, joined the Board of Peace.

Pakistan Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif signed the Charter of the Board of Peace. However, Pakistan has decided not to contribute to the International Stabilisation Force (ISF) in spite of overwhelming domestic support for troop contribution to the force. Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Albania have committed troops to the proposed 400,000-person ISF military force. Egypt and Jordan have agreed to train Palestinian police officers in Gaza.

Pakistan wants to know the scope of this military deployment before it commits its troops. The resolution aims to ‘demilitarise’ the Gaza Strip, permanently decommission weapons from non-state armed groups, and secure reconstruction zones to support a post-conflict governance arrangement in Gaza. The resolution does not require the participation of Palestinians, which has been criticised internationally.

Pakistan’s dilemma

After the Pakistan-US rapprochement—which started with two private Presidential lunches for Pakistan Army Chief, Field Marshal Asif Munir— Pakistan feels that it cannot annoy Trump, though it initially remained lukewarm to the proposal. India, in spite of the invitation, has kept itself away without any commitment to the peace plan in which Palestinians are not stakeholders. But the Iran episode has unsettled regional politics.

Pakistan has condemned the attack on Iran, and at the same time, it also condemned attacks on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates by Iran, showing how the country is navigating this fresh turmoil.

Palestine, however, remains an emotive issue in Pakistan. But there are several things that Pakistan needs to consider first. Trump expects a $1 billion contribution to become a permanent member of the board. Given Pakistan’s financial situation, this is not possible. Domestically, both Jamaat Islami and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf have criticised the Gaza plan and Pakistan’s decision to join. Both opposition parties are critical not just about the provision of BoP but also the government not taking the Parliament and cabinet into confidence before it decided to join the Board. Domestic criticism of opposition notwithstanding, there is popular support for Pakistan’s decision to join the Board, and many in Pakistan think it should contribute troops for the cause of Palestine.

The Iran problem

The attack on Iran has added another dimension to the peace in the Middle East. The regime change in Iran, midwifed by Israel and the US, will test Pakistan’s own relations with both the post-Khamenei Iran and the US, which does not abide by international law. Destabilisation in Iran would have implications for Pakistan. It is yet not clear who will control Iran, as the powerful Revolutionary Guard has vowed revenge. Its main foreign policy challenge would be to navigate the complex geopolitics without being seen as taking sides either with the US and its ally Israel in this conflict.

In 2024, Pakistan and Iran were engaged in cross-border strikes but de-escalated immediately. In June 2025, when the US bombed Iran’s nuclear sites, Pakistan condemned the action. Pakistan has been extremely cautious as the situation in the Middle East unfolds and is interested in how this crisis in Iran shapes up. At the same time, there are reports that Pakistan is trying to normalise its relations with Israel by recognising the government. Much of the dynamics in Pakistan’s relations with Iran is likely to change. Pakistan’s diplomatic steps also keep in mind India’s evolving robust relations with countries that at one point in time were Pakistan’s ‘robust partners’.

The Afghan conundrum

Adding to Pakistan’s problem is the recent cross-border conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The two countries have been engaged in military conflict since Pakistan attacked Afghanistan. The conflict has resurfaced after a Shia mosque bombing in Islamabad on February 6 that left 32 dead and more than 170 injured, effectively collapsing the fragile ceasefire brokered by Saudi Arabia and Turkey last year.

Pakistan believes that the Taliban have provided shelter to the Pakistani Taliban outfit Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), while the Afghan regime continues to deny its involvement. Pakistan conducted airstrikes on Nangarhar, Paktika and southern Kandahar, which allegedly killed 13 civilians as Afghanistan prepared for retaliation against the violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, terming it as a ‘Sharia responsibility’. As the conflict escalates, countries like Iran, China and Russia called for a truce since Pakistan has described its attack as open war with its operation Ghazab lil-Haq (Righteous Fury). The Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict only adds to the volatility of the region that is reeling under the regime change in Iran.

The situation in Iran and the conflict with Afghanistan would not make Pakistan’s Middle East push easier. Yet its projection of strategic heft as an important Muslim country with nuclear weapons would make it relevant to global actors who want an anchorage point for the Middle East policy. However, as Trump moves forward with his Gaza Peace plan, Pakistan is increasingly pressured to contribute troops. It would not be an easy choice for Pakistan, as its border volatility would not allow any further military commitments in Gaza.