The boiling frog apologue seems increasingly, and alarmingly appropriate for global, including Nepali, water woes. What was thought of as a crisis—large-scale but manageable—has turned into a paradigm-shattering realisation of irreversible bankruptcy on a planetary scale. In a new report, the United Nations University (UNU) confirmed that we have now entered a state of global water bankruptcy. Water bankruptcy alludes to a scenario beyond mere water crisis—an overused term used to describe water scarcity—to a state where local hydrological systems have been pushed to the point of collapse, rendering the systems unable to revert to their past state. Decades of excessive and rampant exploitation of water sources and vacillating precipitation patterns, along with rising temperatures, have pushed the local hydrological cycle beyond operating limits. These acts have reduced the rejuvenating capacity of most rivers, lakes, groundwater reserves, soil moisture, and glaciers.

Global scenario

The report reveals that many rivers across the world now fail to reach the sea for significant parts of the year. Over 30 percent of glaciers that augment river flow in the spring have disappeared. Meanwhile, large lakes are drying up, impacting a quarter of the global population that depends on them. Simultaneously, the water-holding capacity of soil has declined due to unchecked erosion and land degradation.

To put this in perspective, these concurrent losses can be compared with the melting of the polar ice sheet. The loss of terrestrial water from sources such as soil moisture and groundwater between 2000 and 2016 amounts to about 40 percent of the combined ice melt from Greenland and the Antarctic during the same period. Worryingly, this terrestrial water loss is irreversible for some regions because replacing it may require above-average precipitation for over a decade, which appears quite unlikely in the context of rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns.

The situation has become so dire that in many places the term ‘water crisis’ is no longer sufficient. The water crisis may generally be addressed by the right policy and appropriate and timely actions. Unfortunately, those are not enough anymore because these lost sources, as per the UNU report, cannot be replaced, at least not within our time scale.

Nepal's context

Rainfall patterns in Nepal have undergone drastic changes over the years. Instead of jhari (Nepali term for low-intensity continuous rain), monsoons are dominated by short-duration, high-intensity localised rain, leading to increased debris flow and floods, simultaneously significantly reducing groundwater replenishment. Saune mool (Nepali word for springs that appear in August at higher elevations when aquifers in the mountains have been replenished) have slowly waned over the last three decades. Consequently, streams and springs at lower elevations also started drying up.

The government’s 2022 national survey to assess climate impacts revealed some startling facts about droughts and depleting water sources in this century. About 43 percent of sample households across the country reported that their streams and rivulets have dried completely—57 percent in the hills, 30 percent in Tarai, and 77 percent of those in the hills of Sudurpaschim Province reported the same. Over 88 percent of households in the high-hills and hills and 66 percent of households in the Tarai suggested that the flow in their streams had reduced.

Natural springs serve as the primary water source for domestic use for millions of people in mountain settlements. However, approximately 55 percent of households surveyed nationwide reported that discharge from springs and wells has decreased over the years. Those reporting complete drying up of springs and wells were 48 percent in the high-hills and 58 percent in the hills. The households reporting the same were even higher in the hills in Koshi, Karnali and Sudurpaschim provinces (80 percent, 76 percent and 75 percent respectively).

Groundwater continues to be the only reliable water source in Tarai, but it too is depleting rapidly. A six-week delay in the monsoon in 2025 compelled both the federal and provincial governments to declare the area drought-stricken, as farmers couldn't plant paddy on time. People had to rely on distant sources to avail water for domestic use.

Dry winters have posed an added challenge. Most parts of the country east of the Karnali Basin are largely experiencing their fifth successive dry winter. As per the DHM's forecast, the likelihood of below-normal rainfall for the 2026 winter increased from 55 percent last year to 65 percent, especially in the hills of Koshi and Sudurpaschim provinces, where over 75 percent of households interviewed reported complete drying up of springs.

Pressing questions

The decline in local water sources across the country raises some pressing questions: Can we, with our existing policies, institutions and knowledge, revive our lost springs? Can we replenish the falling groundwater in the Tarai region, restoring it to a depth of 40 feet from the current 200–300 feet? Will the dried-up streams in the hills flow again? Will those who migrated, following the loss of water sources, return to their original homes? And, more fundamentally, can we stop existing local water sources from declining further?

If we cannot revive lost springs or streams or stop existing sources from declining further, particularly considering that the loss of our water sources is part of the larger terrestrial water systems that have suffered irreversible loss, then we are on the same path of water bankruptcy as countries like Iran. For a large number of households in the hills contending with dry springs or for those in Tarai where groundwater has fallen below the reach of shallow tube wells, water bankruptcy is not impending; it’s already here.

Herein lies a lesson for all, particularly the aspiring political leaders hoping to change the status quo. Despite years of global efforts focused on water resource development and natural resource management, beginning in 1992 at the Earth Summit all the way to Agenda 2030 emphasising sustainable management of water resources, including Sustainable Development Goal 6, the incipient water bankruptcy suggests that these efforts over the last decades were either ineffective or the institutions and strategies adopted couldn’t grasp the evolving social, economic, and environmental dynamics, while the unending demands on the limited water sources continued.

Our water policies must shift away from seeking remedies where problems appear, and toward intervention strategies that address the very root of the issue. Water strategies must target both floods and droughts simultaneously; otherwise, both problems will continue to worsen as has happened so far.

Addressing our water concerns could help achieve common ground in our divided national politics, offering an issue that touches on all of our lives. In this context, our impending water bankruptcy should become a shared agenda for all contesting the forthcoming elections. How urgently and effectively this happens will determine how we cope with the water bankruptcy we are slipping into in the coming days.