A decade after the third Madhesh revolt–a climate so tense the country stood on the precipice of a rupture–Nepal may be on the verge of electing its first Madheshi to the highest executive position. If the Rastriya Swatantra Party’s (RSP) crowd sizes and social media buzz are anything to go by, Balen Sah, the darling of youth and a rapper-turned-mayor, may be Nepal’s youngest and South Asia’s second-youngest elected prime minister. His steep rise from an artist to a potential PM at 35 has no parallel in the region’s gerontocratic politics and will mark the dawn of a new era.

Yet the exuberance surrounding Balen risks obscuring the contradictions and risks embedded in his rise. Insights on him and the RSP can help understand the politics of tomorrow–and they begin with his upbringing.

Raised in Kathmandu, Balen’s early foray into hip-hop endowed him with sharp communication skills that would catapult him to the centre of Nepali politics. Hip-hop, which emerged in New York in the 1970s in response to the marginalisation of African American youth, spread globally because of its power to catalyse social change. One way in which the art form manifests is through rap battles, a competitive exchange where rappers perform verses aimed at outperforming and outsmarting each other in front of an audience. They require close attention to the opposition’s verses, rapid formulation of critiques, and effective delivery to weaken the opposition. Balen’s early training in such a climate would later establish him as an anti-establishment figure and lead him to concentrate enormous power to regulate the country’s political temperature with mere social media posts.

A closet Madheshi

Rap is about identity, resistance and reclaiming space. In a rap battle in his early 20s, Balen shied away from correcting his opponent, who assumed Balen to be a Pahadi ‘Shah.’ In 2021, he deflected an ex-mayor’s remarks on his ethnic identity, knowing how it could be a liability in Kathmandu. In an art form tied to identity and resistance, Balen did not channel his rage toward advocating for the Madheshi community protesting against the state’s injustices and exclusion. Contrarily, his music videos selectively portray hilly life, casting Pahadi people as the primary characters to showcase the pain of Nepalis, excluding the multi-layered struggles of Dalits, Madheshis, or other marginalised groups.

Balen likely never had a lived experience of a typical Madheshi, such as struggles over citizenship or questions of loyalty. He is, in many ways, a product of Mahendra’s homogenisation policy. Dressed in a Bhadgaule Topi and Daura Surwal and fluent in Nepali, Balen ironically evokes the king for hard-core nationalists with his black Wayfarer glasses. While other Madheshis have faced scrutiny for their dress and language in Kathmandu, Balen, with his Kathmandu upbringing, sheds some of the baggage plain-living Madheshis bear.

Balen’s layered identity and life experience have meant wider palatability across groups. To the crowd of anti-old-guards, his consistent rap-laced anti-establishment stance elicits confidence. To the hilly nationalists, who learned about his Madheshi roots recently, his evidence of ‘Nepaliness’ dislodges their anxieties that he would sell Madhesh to India, unlike dhoti-wearing Madheshis. And, for Madheshis, they are at last happy to see a Madheshi become a prime minister. Together, these groups form an electorate to watch in this election.

Contradictions

Yet, cut through the fog, and Balen emerges as a contradictory figure. In delivering his Janakpur speech in Maithili–a token effort to court Madheshi voters eager to hear a potential PM speak their language–Balen marked his official coming out and showed how he can instrumentalise his identity to be politically profitable. While there were several occasions as a mayor to visit and empathise with protesting Madhesh-based groups in Kathmandu, he did not meet any; instead, he poorly defended his inaction in his speech. In fact, as a mayor, he actively removed low-income street vendors, many of whom were Madheshis. His actions do not square with his socialist claims or identity. By siding with the ideas of meritocracy and supra-nationalism, he steamrolled the complexities and struggles of different groups.

His mayorship had also received pushback from activist groups and different ward offices, accusing him of unaccountability and unilateralism. His indiscretions are well documented. From a F-bomb post to threatening to burn Singha Durbar, he appears impetuous. While confrontation paid off as an anti-establishment figure, it will hurt him in power.

Values

It is also important to understand the values he espouses. In the same rap video where he distanced himself from his identity, he was misogynistic, anti-queer and toxically masculine. How far has he moved from these beliefs? Given that most of his supporters are men, does he risk further solidifying these beliefs?

Balen also appears to be cut from the same cloth as Oli: narcissistic with a touch of messiah-complex. Balen may confuse the majoritarian sentiment as a legitimate decree to be unaccountable. Elevated to demi-god status this election cycle, Balen is portrayed as the figure who can take Nepal out of the political rut. However, little is being discussed about where we would go once we’re out.

The whisperers

Together, Balen and his whisperers, mostly RSP cadres, will not only determine what type of leader Balen will be, but also the direction of the country.

RSP, in itself, does not elicit much confidence for progressivism. Rabi Lamichhane, its chieftain and a formerly sensationalistic journalist, and his acolytes have harboured a narrow definition of ‘Nepaliness’, including calling a pro-Madhesh citizen bill anti-national. Rabi’s jail term over serious allegations erodes confidence. Two of the three RSP executive members and election candidates are Khas Aryas. While the party gloats over more women candidates than the old parties, it is simply setting a low bar and fulfilling it. The RSP has also been wishy-washy on federalism and ambiguous on secularism to court Hindu voters. Composed of urban professionals residing inside the Kathmandu ring road, these whispers remain insular from Nepal beyond the valley. While its popularity has surged outside the valley lately, the new recruits, especially in Madhesh, risk being tokens, operating under the dominance of the Khas Arya elites.

Yet, novelty is on their side. As long as Balen and the RSP are reflective of their flaws, possess whisperers who don’t buttress their ego and bring down their insular walls, and commit to self-improvement, they will avoid the old guards’ fate as they age in Nepali politics. Oli is at the dusk of his career, and his arrogant, chauvinist days are numbered. To borrow political scientist Steven Levitsky’s words from the 2011 Peruvian elections, reframed for Nepal: There are doubts about Balen, but against Oli, there is proof.