Three important elections are going to take place in the northeastern part of the South Asian region, promising transformational politics. Myanmar will conduct the first phase of its parliamentary elections on December 28, followed by Bangladesh on February 12 and Nepal on March 5.

While the election in Myanmar has been rejected by the main opposition, including the National Unity Government (NUG) and the Ethnic Armed Organisations, Bangladesh political parties—mainly the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizens Party (NCP)—are looking forward to participating in the election, as the Awami League (AL), the ousted party led by Sheikh Hasina, remains under a ban. In Nepal, the CPN-UML initially rejected the call for elections but later registered itself with the Election Commission. Several petitions are filed in the Supreme Court asking for the restoration of parliament that was dissolved following the Gen Z revolt, adding a bit of uncertainty.

Are these elections transformative?

None of the three countries would likely witness transformative politics post-election. The election in Myanmar is predicted to strengthen the military’s hold on power, as its main adversaries are not contesting in the election. Yet, the Myanmar military is going ahead with one-sided phased elections, with the main political parties rejecting this election. Fifty-seven parties are contesting, out of which 29 parties are ethnic-based parties, and six parties will contest nationwide. No reforms to the political system are proposed; rather, the Myanmar Army retains 25 percent of seats in the parliament and may occupy more seats as the army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party is likely to win. The opposition claims that their participation would legitimise the Army’s role; however, non-participation would have little impact on the Tatmadaw. The ongoing battle to control territory between military and ethnic armed groups has made the situation volatile. Election, which is mandated within a five-year interval by the Myanmar constitution, will exacerbate conflict rather than bring peace.

Bangladesh is going to have a referendum on the political reforms introduced by the interim regime, as well as the 13th parliamentary election, on February 12. As of now, the AL remains banned, and the President of Bangladesh, Mohammed Shahabuddin Chuppu, has expressed his desire to resign from his position, as he felt humiliated by the interim regime headed by Mohammad Yunus. The country also recently saw radical leader Osman Hadi, leader of the Inqilab Mancha, being shot as he started his campaign as an independent candidate. Hadi had played a significant role in the July 2024 uprising. In November, there was an attack on the BNP rally in Chattogram, which killed one person. Law and order continue to remain an issue in the forthcoming election, as such killings are being normalised. Like the previous non-inclusive elections held under the AL regime, the party’s nonparticipation due to its ban will raise legitimacy concerns.

Transformative politics in Bangladesh remain an aspiration, as the political culture of the country remains the same. The incumbent government is intolerant of the opposition’s point of view; it squeezes their voices by arresting journalists and civil society members critical of the government. Political reforms proposed by the interim regime await people’s approval through a referendum.

Nepal is gearing up to hold elections on March 5. UML chief KP Sharma Oli has called the Gen Z revolt ‘bogus’, thereby terming it as a grave plot to drive the country towards uncertainty. The Nepali Congress, which was indecisive about whether to challenge the dissolution of the House of Representatives or go for a fresh election, has finally filed a petition in the Supreme Court asking for the formation of a new government as mandated by Article 76 of the Constitution.

Political instability has long been a problem in Nepal. After a new constitution was promulgated by the elected Constituent Assembly, promising naya Nepal, the frequent change of governments has been the norm. Power revolves within a small circle of political leaders—Oli, Dahal and Deuba. The intra-party and inter-party leadership rivalry has seen factionalism that adds to instability. Political patronage and corruption remain entrenched and have seeped through the system. The Gen Z revolution promised hopes of change and reformed politics. But if the past is any indicator, the yearning for reformative politics still remains a hope. The election will not change the political malaise that affects the body politic in Nepal.

The gap

The Gen Z uprising in Bangladesh and Nepal created a hope for new politics marked by a responsive and clean government that ends patronage politics. Though the undercurrents of unemployment and underemployment angered the youth, the outburst of anger was attributed to the regime’s attempt to gag criticism that was long in the making. Parliaments in both countries became the venue to express the anger against the lack of accountability demonstrated by the political leaders.

An election is the only way to re-establish a legitimate government with the people’s mandate. However, the degeneration of electoral politics cannot ensure reformative change. While Bangladesh will see whether the reforms that have been adopted make way for transformative politics, Nepal, after a new constitution passed in 2015, has very little to hope for. In the context of Myanmar, where the process of electioneering is going to start this month, it is about the entrenchment of the army rather than the political change that Bangladesh and Nepal are hoping for.

Elections in South Asia have not led to the entrenchment of democratic norms or accountable politics. Rather, it has strengthened political power in the hands of a few politicians. Yet, democracy, even though flawed, has received considerable traction in people’s minds and is the only viable way to change the government.

Democratic political culture is a work in progress. Transformative politics will remain a chimaera if political parties do not exercise inner-party democracy; elections become an exercise of money and muscle power. Nepal’s Gen Z did not have a leader; Bangladeshi youth have formed a political party—the National Citizens Party—that is preparing to fight the election. Only time will tell whether Bangladesh and Nepal will transition to robust democracy as Myanmar falls back into the hands of the military and consequently continues its civil war.