The third government formed after the 2022 provincial elections in Madhesh Pradesh collapsed on Saturday.

Saroj Kumar Yadav became the chief minister in January 2023 and held the position for 146 days. Then his government was toppled and Satish Kumar Singh became the chief minister.

Singh served for 130 days. His government, too, fell after the political equation went against him. After Singh resigned on October 15, Jitendra Sonal became the chief minister. Sonal’s government has now been ousted after failing to secure a majority in the provincial assembly.

Sonal announced his resignation on Saturday evening realising that he was sure to lose the imminent vote of confidence. He had to quit after the Janamat Party, which supported him, split and its vote was divided.

In the 107-member Provincial Assembly, at least 54 seats are required for a majority government. Former chief minister Singh and Tribhuwan Shah were absent from the Provincial Assembly meeting, pushing Sonal’s government to the brink.

In the Madhesh Provincial Assembly, the ruling coalition has 8 seats from the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP), 18 from the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) Nepal, 13 from the Janamat Party, 9 from the CPN (Maoist Centre), and 7 from the CPN (Unified Socialist).

The Nagarik Unmukti Party had already decided to give Sonal the vote of confidence. However, Sanghiya Samajbadi Party lawmaker Bimala Ansari, who had assured Sonal of support, was absent on Saturday.

Assembly members Rahabar Ansari and Mala Karna from the Maoist Centre rebelled against the party policy and announced not to vote. Ansari even showed up in the meeting with “black soot” on his face.

On the day of the confidence vote, after CPN (Maoist Centre)’s Ansari and Karna defied the party’s decision, the Sonal government found itself cornered.

Realising that he did not have a majority on his side, Sonal resigned even before the process for the vote of confidence began.

On October 15 , Sonal was appointed chief minister with the support of 56 lawmakers from five parties—the Janata Samajbadi Party, the Janamat Party, the Maoist Centre, the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP), and the CPN (Unified Socialist).

As per Article 168(3) of the constitution, the provincial head will now invite the leader of the largest party in the assembly to form a new government. Under the provision, the provincial parliamentary party leader of the CPN-UML is set to be appointed the chief minister.

The constitutional provision stipulates that if a chief minister appointed under Article 168(2) fails to get a vote of confidence, the leader of the party with the most members is invited to lead the government. Should the next chief minister also fail, Article 168(5) allows any assembly member who can demonstrate majority support to be appointed.

Sonal’s resignation underscores the persistent political instability in Madhesh Province, where shifting alliances and fractured mandates have led to repeated changes in government since the introduction of the federal system in 2015.