a week after the formation of the new political alliance between the CPN-UML, the CPN (Maoist Centre), the Rastriya Swatantra Party, the Janata Samajbadi Party and the CPN (Unified Socialist), followed by changes in the Cabinet, signs of hope and stability appear elusive.

Almost all ruling parties are suffering one after another setbacks and crises of confidence.

“Neither the leaders nor the party cadres seem happy with our alliance with the Maoist Centre,” a UML central committee member said. “Our only objective was to dismantle the previous Congress-Maoist Centre alliance, which we did, and this is the only achievement.”

In the name of giving free hand to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the UML has sent to the Cabinet comparatively low profile and inexperienced ministers, assigning them less important portfolios which are also less connected to the day-to-day concerns of the people.

The Post spoke to several UML leaders on the prospects of the present coalition, which was engineered mainly by KP Oli, chairman of the CPN-UML. “We are unsure how long this alliance will continue. Initial indications are not positive,” said a central committee member, requesting anonymity.

But UML Deputy General Secretary Pradeep Gyawali accused “some elements” of trying to sabotage the ruling coalition.

“Some elements want to see instability in Nepal. They are trying to sow divisions. As the focus of the new government will be on service delivery and good governance, the UML will try its best to sustain this coalition until its full term,” Gyawali said.

All is not well inside the Maoist Centre too.

After Prime Minister Dahal unilaterally decided to nominate Narayan Dahal as candidate for upper house chair, the party rank and file has expressed deep frustration.

A close relative of the prime minister, his candidacy was officially confirmed by the party on Sunday, but party leaders are unsure about how to defend this decision.

With the UML’s support locked in, Narayan Dahal is said to be almost certain to win the coveted post.

Previously, when Narayan Dahal’s name was recommended for membership of the National Assembly, UML Chairman Oli had publicly lashed out the decision by deliberately mispronouncing his name as “Narayan Kamal Dahal.” Kamal is Prime Minister Dahal’s middle name. Narayan Dahal was nominated to the National Assembly in 2022 by the then President Bidya Devi Bhandari on the recommendation of then Sher Bahadur Deuba government.

Now, the same UML has to vote for Narayan Dahal.

“Oli is grappling with a moral dilemma about how to vote for Dahal. There is deep anger and frustration in the party over this decision,” a Maoist central committee leader said.

Those who have a full six-year term in the National Assembly should be given the chance, said Haribol Gajurel, who served as chief political adviser to the prime minister till December last year.

“We are also surprised why [Narayan] Dahal, who has only four years of his term left, was made the candidate,” said Gajurel.

Majority of Maoist Centre leaders were in favour of having Jhakku Subedi in the post of National Assembly chair, as he would serve a full six-year term in the upper house. The incumbent vice chair, Urmila Aryal, from the same party was also a contender for the post. But the prime minister and party chair disregarded the party’s decision and pushed for his distant brother’s nomination.

On the fate of the current alliance, Gajurel said different kinds of political manoeuvring and manipulation were going on, and so he cannot say anything with certainty.

“We did not do adequate homework before ditching the Nepali Congress,” said the Maoist leader. “There still is a huge gap, misunderstanding, and difficulty in finding common goals and objectives on how to effectively manage this alliance. This kind of confusion and lack of direction has made it difficult to predict the alliance’s future.”

The way the government was formed without enough internal discussion also became an issue in another ruling party, the Rastriya Swatantra Party.

During the party’s central committee meeting, some committee members had raised concerns about lack of such discussion.

“Some members had expressed reservations about joining the government, while some others said time had come to ensure delivery, as the party chair is himself leading the party in the government,” a RSP leader said. Party chair and deputy prime minister Rabi Lammichhane, party vice-president Swarnim Wagle and spokesperson Mukul Dhakal offered long explanations in order to address the anger and reservations, according to the leader.

Some leaders also expressed concerns about the failure to maintain balance and inclusiveness when appointing ministers, the RSP leader said.

“The most important thing all members were concerned about is the government’s service delivery. If the government fails to deliver, it will be disastrous for the party, which is in the process of building a base for the next set of local and federal elections.”

The RSP does not have a policy of contesting provincial elections.

This is probably the first time that the RSP leadership is feeling the heat from the grassroots as well as the party’s central level.

Another party in the ruling coalition, the CPN (Unified Socialist), publicly announced on Monday that it will not give a vote of confidence to Prime Minister Dahal if he does not address some of the party’s grievances in writing. (The party has already sent two ministers to the new Dahal Cabinet.)

A meeting of the Unified Socialist parliamentary party on Monday decided not to give a vote of confidence to the Prime Minister Dahal if he fails to give a written commitment to address its concerns. “Otherwise we will not vote for the Maoist Centre candidate for upper house chair, and we will not give a vote of confidence to Prime Minister Dahal in the floor test on Wednesday,” said Metmani Chaudhary, chief whip of the party. “Whether the government will sustain or perish, it all depends on the prime minister’s behaviour and working style.”

The situation in the Janata Samajbadi Party, which has just joined the government, is also not favourable for party chairman Upendra Yadav who is almost in minority in the party’s central committee.

“Our situation is similar to that of the Unified Socialist,” said Raj Kishore Yadav, an influential party leader. “Our concern is the continuation of the present provincial government in Madhesh province. The decision taken by the Unified Socialist will affect our party. If the Unified Socialist does not vote, we will also take a similar decision.”

Yadav said that the party had called a meeting on Tuesday to decide on whether to give Dahal a trust vote.

Another JSP lawmaker Pradip Yadav said that as the new alliance was formed at the UML’s initiation, its longevity depends on the same party.