Cancelled flights and postponed trips triggered by the war in the Middle East have cast deep uncertainty over Nepal’s tourism outlook at the start of the peak spring season.

“This is the start of the high season here. It’s catastrophic,” said Mandip Giri, managing director of Dom Himalaya Hotel in Chettrapati, on the western edge of Thamel. “We had 90 percent occupancy till Sunday. Now it has dropped below 50 percent.”

According to Giri, online booking cancellations have reached more than 70 percent. “Some have postponed their trips, but we are not sure they will come.”

Spring is the peak season when tourists arrive in Nepal for trekking and mountaineering, and hotels are usually close to fully booked during this time of the year.

Travel and tour operators say a small number of tourists have started rerouting their trips from Thailand, Singapore and India.

Across the world, tour operators are scrambling to find solutions for clients stranded in the region or those who had planned trips there.

Yalamber Rai, country general manager at Intrepid Travel Nepal, said that since it is still the beginning of the season, there have not yet been large-scale cancellations.

“Tourists who have bought packages are in a ‘wait-and-see’ situation,” he said, adding that Intrepid Travel Nepal has so far witnessed just over a dozen individual trip cancellations.

But according to Rai, there could also be a silver lining.

“Tourists who had planned visits to Middle Eastern countries have started rerouting to Southeast Asia due to the uncertainty,” he said. “We are expecting modest growth in numbers if visitors cancel their Middle East tours and reroute to Southeast Asia, including Nepal.”

The Gulf region hosts several major aviation hubs—Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha—which serve as key transit points for travellers flying to Nepal.

According to the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal, more than 75 flights linked to Middle Eastern countries have been cancelled over the past five days, affecting vital air routes used by tourists travelling to Nepal.

The aviation regulator said the airspaces of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait remain closed.

Emirates, the world’s largest international airline, has announced that it will operate a limited flight schedule for March 5 and 6. The airline issued a travel update following the partial reopening of airspace in the United Arab Emirates.

Emirates said passengers with earlier bookings would be given priority on the limited flights currently in operation.

Passengers transiting through Dubai will only be accepted for travel if their connecting flights are operating. Meanwhile, Flydubai resumed one flight from Kathmandu on Thursday, but passengers with layovers longer than six hours in Dubai will not be allowed to transit.

After the Covid pandemic and last September’s youth-led Gen Z protests in Nepal, tourism had just begun to recover, according to Giri.

“Tourists had started coming back. Now everything is uncertain again,” he said.

The conflict is disrupting a sector that had been slowly recovering from the Gen Z protests.

The spring season, from March to May, is one of Nepal’s main tourist periods and typically accounts for roughly one-third of the country’s annual tourist arrivals, which stand at around 1.1 million.

Known as the peak season for trekking and mountaineering, the period attracts visitors with stable weather conditions favourable for hiking and expeditions in the Himalayas.

The tourism sector had already taken a significant hit following the Gen Z protests. During October last year, usually one of the busiest months, average hotel bookings stood at only around 30 percent, compared to the typical 70 percent occupancy.

“For the past six months, people working in tourism had finally started to feel hopeful. And now there is a war,” said Deepak Raj Joshi, chief executive officer of the Nepal Tourism Board, the country’s tourism promotion body.

“This is going to be terrible for the economy.”

Joshi himself has been stranded at Doha airport for the past six days due to the disruption of flights in the region.

“Since Doha and Dubai are key transit routes, the impact on Nepal’s tourism could be huge,” he said.

“Everything is uncertain here. More than 8,000 transit passengers of Qatar Airways alone have been stranded in Doha. The Qatari government has been taking care of all stranded passengers,” Joshi added.

Against this backdrop, analysts warn that a decline in tourist flows to Nepal could deliver a severe economic blow, as the tourism industry supports a significant share of jobs in the country.

According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, tourism contributed Rs327.9 billion ($2.5 billion) to Nepal’s economy in 2023 and supported 1.19 million jobs directly and indirectly.

“We estimate inbound arrivals could decline by 10 to 15 percent year-on-year in 2026 if the conflict continues, despite the growth seen in February,” said Joshi.

Tourist arrivals to Nepal grew by 8.8 percent in February to reach 105,441 visitors.

Despite the uncertainty, Joshi remains cautiously optimistic.

“Nepal has always been an incredibly resilient market, and demand usually rebounds quickly once stability returns,” he said.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East following the war launched by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28 have rapidly spread across the region, affecting countries including the UAE, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait—where a large number of Nepali migrant workers are based—triggering global alarm.

Kathmandu has already halted labour permits to key Gulf destinations amid fears that the conflict could threaten Nepal’s major income sources, particularly remittances, which remain the backbone of the country’s economy.