Nepal just witnessed a second uprising in four months. The first took place on September 8, 2025, when Gen Z youths who took to the streets demanding good governance and an end to corruption were gunned down. This led to an uproar the next day, resulting in the loss of more lives and widespread arson of public and private property, forcing the KP Oli government to resign. The second took place recently, on January 16, when the Election Commission resolved the leadership dispute within the Nepali Congress between Sher Bahadur Deuba (80 next June) and Gagan Kumar Thapa (50 next July) by recognising the Thapa-led committee elected through a special general convention, ending an old-guard-led party edifice.

​The repercussions of both events are likely to be felt for years, even decades, to come. The Gen Z revolt was born out of years of the wayward way the established parties were conducting themselves, turning a deaf ear to calls for reform. Thapa’s revolt within the leading party in Nepal was similar. The Deuba-led Nepali Congress was increasingly losing touch with the Nepali people in general and its own cadres in particular, as it was only driven by power and profit. The risks were very high that going to the March 5 polls under Deuba’s leadership would be met with the ire of voters annoyed with the inability—and unwillingness—of leaders in their 60s and 70s to adapt to changing times to stay relevant.

​Time waits for no one. It did not for Deuba. A five-time prime minister between 1995 and 2022 and party president since 2016, he was unable to shake off his greed for a sixth term. Towards this goal, he was willing to get into bed with communists, ask his cadres to vote for parties with opposing ideologies in the name of political alliance, and have his name (and his wife’s) implicated in several corruption cases. As in sports, in politics, too, knowing when to hang up the gloves can decide what kind of legacy one leaves behind. Overstaying one’s welcome comes with a cost. For Deuba, the cost turned out to be a humiliating exit as party president, even as he announced he would not run in the March 5 polls.

​Oli’s fate same as Deuba’s​

Deuba’s ally in the preceding government, Oli, a four-time prime minister himself between 2015 and 2025 and Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) chair since 2014, has for now managed to defer the inevitable. In December, he quashed challenger Ishwor Pokhrel to secure a third term as party chair. Earlier in September, the 70-year age limit and two-term restrictions on leaders were removed, clearing the path for Oli’s third term. Oli headed the government during the Gen Z revolt, and he shows no remorse; nor is there any change in his authoritarian style within the UML. In the candidate selection for the upcoming election, loyalists were rewarded and dissenters punished.

​At some point, Oli (74 next month) will probably share the same destiny as Deuba’s. It is just that the current UML culture of lying prostrate before Oli needs to end, and that will only happen when a Gagan Thapa-like character emerges. Speaking of which, hats off to Thapa and Bishwa Prakash Sharma, newly elected vice president, for pulling off what until just a few weeks ago looked nearly impossible. It will not be an exaggeration to say that the duo was risking their future within the Nepali Congress and were rewarded for their valour and leadership. Now, it is the voters’ turn to do so. Sharma has decided not to run in the March 5 polls, but Thapa is, opting for Sarlahi-4 this time instead of Kathmandu-4.

​Voters also have an opportunity—even a duty—to wipe the slate clean in political leadership. Since the dawn of multi-party democracy in 1990, and particularly since the abolition of monarchy in 2008, Nepalis have repeatedly given opportunities to those who have repeatedly failed to deliver. Corruption and bad governance prospered, but not the right leadership. Post-Gen Z uprising, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a three-time prime minister between 2008 and 2024, abandoned Maoism and coalesced 18 splinter parties to form the Nepali Communist Party. Dahal (Rukum East) and former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal (Rautahat-1) ought to be sent packing. Another former prime minister, Baburam Bhattarai, withdrew his candidacy from Gorkha-2.

​Change—if not now, when?

​The biggest battle lies in Jhapa-5, which traditionally is considered a bastion of Oli; in both the 2017 and 2022 elections, he secured more than 50,000 votes. This time around, in the wake of his snobbish refusal to own up to anything related to the Gen Z revolt, the dynamics are different—more so because Balendra Shah (36 in April) has thrown his hat in the ring. In the 2022 mayoral race in Kathmandu, he was a young rapper-turned-engineer, but the political rookie that he was pulled off a surprise win as an independent. Now, he is running under the flag of the Rastriya Swatantra Party and is set to lead the nation should his party form the next government. Balen’s imminent victory would seal Oli’s early retirement.

​The RSP is riding a resurgent popularity wave after Balen’s entry as a senior leader. Formed less than six months prior to the 2022 election by Rabi Lamicchane, an enigmatic journalist, it promptly became the fourth-largest party. But, soon afterwards, Lamichhane joined the government led by the same established parties that he used to rant about. On a personal level, Lamichhane faces multiple lawsuits, primarily related to embezzlement of cooperative organisations’ funds, faced a legal challenge over his citizenship, and was heavily criticised for getting out of Nakkhu Prison amidst the unrest on September 9. With all this baggage, it is tough to predict how the Lamichhane-led party would have fared in the March 5 election.

​Lamichhane’s stroke of genius is that he was able to convince Balen to come onboard the RSP train. Now, the leadership goes around claiming they would secure a two-thirds majority. Such cockiness is uncalled for and amounts to counting one’s chickens before they hatch. Despite all these follies, the RSP odds are very high of finishing as the leading party. It is plausible to imagine a scenario in which Balen becomes the new prime minister with help from the Thapa-led Nepali Congress. What lies ahead is a battle between the rusted and the fresh, between the decadent past and the burgeoning future, and between those seeking power for themselves and those who want to empower the people. Please vote with an open mind.