Although the extent of coronavirus spread in communities remains unclear, neither health authorities nor the public see a need for more testing.

But doctors and experts, including virologists and officials at the Ministry of Health and Population, say cases of coronavirus in the country are steadily ticking up.

“We won’t know the situation in communities without testing,” said Dr Janak Koirala, an infectious disease expert. “But what is true is that the number of people suffering from fever, sore throat, body aches and common cold have risen of late and some might be due to Covid.”

The World Health Organisation’s report on integrated influenza and other respiratory virus surveillance for week 31 report of 2024 shows SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate of 13.68 percent.

Also the latest data of the National Public Health Laboratory indicates a sharp increase in cases. Out of 5,373 tests conducted since January, 341 came out positive for Covid. The test positivity rate is 6.3 percent, which is concerning, according to experts.

“Precaution should be taken if the positivity rate exceeds five percent,” said Koirala. “But we don’t know the actual condition, as neither testing nor active case finding are being conducted.”

Besides the surge in coronavirus cases, coinfection of multiple viruses including coronavirus has also been detected, according to the lab report.

The report shows that swab samples of 11 people having influenza-like symptoms were found to have been infected with A(H1N1) also known as swine flu, and Covid. One sample was found to have co-infection of influenza B virus and Covid.

Along with Covid, influenza positivity rate is also on an upward trend. The NPHL’s report shows that the overall influenza positivity rate is 17.1 percent, meaning that 17 out of every 100 samples tested positive for influenza viruses. Specifically, 713 people tested positive for swine flu, 47 for A(H3), also known as Hong Kong flu, and 223 for influenza B virus.

Since the end of the second wave of Covid in 2021, health authorities across Nepal have stopped active case finding, including contact tracing and free testing. Hospitals now only conduct tests for those seeking polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests for travel abroad or for seriously ill patients with respiratory conditions.

Multiple doctors the Post spoke with said that the circulation of coronavirus has never stopped and will not stop in coming days either.

Infectious disease experts and virologists urge the public to take precautions to protect the elderly and people with comorbidity from the deadly virus.

“Testing and other preventive measures have stopped,” an official at the Health Ministry said, asking not to be named, as he is not authorised to speak on the issue. “But just look around: in our homes and neighbourhood, we can easily find cases of fever, common cold and people with other Covid-like symptoms.”

Experts say that even if people are not getting severe from Covid infection, the elderly and people with underlying conditions remain at high risk.

“We saw elderly people requiring intensive care during the previous surge in April,” said Dr Sher Bahadur Pun, chief of the Clinical Research Unit at the Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital. “It’s time to return to basics—washing hands, wearing face masks, avoiding crowds—in order to save at-risk groups like the elderly and those with underlying conditions.”

Experts say the overall high positivity rate suggests the virus has spread faster than expected. There could be many people with Covid who have not gone for tests, according to them.

As the coronavirus symptoms are similar to those of seasonal flu, many opt not to get tested, which doctors say could prove costly, because they can be carriers and could spread the virus to those coming in contact.

Doctors warn that authorities’ reactive approach—taking preventive measures only after hospitals start witnessing massive patient flow could result in more severe consequences.

Meanwhile, a highly placed source at the Health Ministry confirmed detection of a new sub-variant of the coronavirus in the country apart from previous variants including the Covid sub-lineages KP.1, KP.2, KP.3, and KP.4.

The National Public Health Laboratory had recently carried out whole-genome sequencing on swab samples of 42 coronavirus-infected persons. The report is expected to be published on Tuesday.

Whole-genome sequencing is a comprehensive method of analysing the entire DNA sequence of an organism’s genes. Researchers believe whole-genome sequencing of coronavirus could be instrumental in tracking the virus’s severity and properties.

“The trend of previous years shows infection of influenza virus including coronavirus surge in August and September,” said Dr Ranjan Bhatta, director at the NPHL. “This surge has been seen in recent days as well. But this does not mean you should panic, only that you should take enough precautions against the risk.”