A cloud of uncertainty continues to hang over Koshi government formation. With just a day left for the deadline set by the province head, parties have failed to seal a deal and find a way to muster a majority.

Key provincial leaders of the Nepali Congress-led alliance are in Kathmandu to discuss the matter with the central leadership and find a way out. Though they claim that a decision will be made by Tuesday morning, the path to a majority is unclear: 47 lawmakers in the provincial assembly make a majority.

Koshi Province parliamentary party leader of Maoist Centre Indra Angbo claimed the parties will reach an agreement by Tuesday morning. “The discussion with the Rastriya Prajatantra Party continues to bring them into our fold. We are exploring options such as holding the chief ministerial position in rotation with the RPP,” he said. “They are also positive.”

Some leaders of the Congress, however, say the chances of the RPP joining the alliance are slim as discussions have failed to make any headway.

“We tried our best to get the RPP’s support to have a clear majority. But the RPP is of the view that they will not help with the formation of a government under Article 168(2) of the constitution,” said Uddhav Thapa, Koshi province parliamentary party leader of Nepali Congress. “But they will consider supporting us if Article 168(5) is invoked.”

Article 168 (2) says if no party has a clear majority in the provincial assembly, the province head will appoint a member of the assembly who is able to command a majority with the backing of two or more parties to the post of chief minister.

The UML, as the largest party in the provincial assembly, will get to form government as per Article 168 (3) if no alliance can present the support of 47 lawmakers.

Article 168(3) of the constitution says that if a government cannot be formed under 168 (2), the provincial head will appoint the parliamentary party leader of the assembly’s largest party as chief minister. The chief minister of such a minority government must secure a vote of confidence within 30 days.

And if the UML-led government fails to win the confidence of the assembly, Article 168 (5) gives the last option to a lawmaker in the assembly to stake a claim presenting the support of a majority of lawmakers. If Article 168(5) does not work, the province will head for a midterm election.

The Supreme Court, on Thursday, had removed Congress leader Thapa from chief minister. It mandated the province head to appoint a chief minister of a coalition government within seven days. Province Head Parasuram Khapung, accordingly, asked the political parties to stake claim to government by 5pm on Tuesday.

RPP leaders, on the other hand, claim the formation of the government in Koshi under Article 168(2) is yet to enter formal discussions in party committees. RPP spokesman Sagun Sundar Lawati confirmed as much.

It means the RPP will not support the Congress-led alliance, say insiders.

With getting the required majority proving to be difficult, competing claims by the Congress-led alliance partners to chief ministership adds to the complications. “The central leaders should also agree on the chief ministerial position as our party, the Congress, the Maoist Centre and the Unified Socialist are all claiming the post,” Congress leader Thapa told the Post.

The parliamentary strength of the political parties makes government formation in Koshi knotty. Both the Congress-led alliance (which includes the Maoist Centre, the Unified Socialist and the Janata Samajbadi) and the UML-RPP alliance have 46 lawmakers each.

As such, the current ruling coalition partners have also been mulling another tactic: asking Speaker Baburam Gautam, a Maoist Centre leader, to resign the post and claiming a majority by including his signature as lawmaker.

Angbo, the Maoist leader, said that the next option will be making the Speaker resign and claiming the majority with 47 lawmakers. According to him, there will be no constitutional complication as the law allows the lawmaker, who will chair the provincial assembly in the absence of Speaker, to vote in the floor test.

Article 186 of the Constitution states that all questions submitted for a decision in the provincial assembly shall be decided by a majority vote of the members present and participating in voting. The member presiding over the meeting shall not have the right to vote. But he or she may vote to break a tie, says the Article.

However, the Article does not clarify whether the person who chairs the assembly in the absence of the Speaker can vote in the floor test. Constitutional experts also differ on the matter.

If the Speaker resigns, the deputy Speaker, who is from the UML, also may resign so that he/she could participate in the vote in order to prevent the Congress-led alliance from forming a government. After that, the oldest lawmaker, who is from the Nepali Congress, will chair the provincial assembly meeting.

Constitutional experts are divided on whether the leader who chairs the provincial assembly can vote during a vote of confidence. Two of the three constitutional experts the Post talked to are of the view that those who chair the provincial assembly in place of the Speaker cannot, at any cost, take sides in the government formation process.

While the Congress-led alliance has been making every effort, the UML does not seem keen to form a government under Article 168(2).

UML’s Koshi provincial assembly chief whip Rewati Raman Bhandari said they have been continuing informal discussions in an attempt to garner a majority and form government under the Article 168(2) of the constitution, but there has been no rigorous effort from the party. “It is unsure whether our party will stake a claim on Tuesday.”