Rajendra Mahato, a veteran of Madhesh politics, has tossed his hat in the ring for the by-election in Bara-2, a constituency that has remained vacant after Ramsahay Prasad Yadav was elected the country’s Vice President.

Keshav Jha, executive member of the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, confirmed to the Post that his party has decided to field senior leader Mahato for the by-election.

“The Janamat Party had previously promised to help us in the by-election,” he said. “And we are confident that they will.”

The newly-emerged Janamat Party, however, has other plans. On Wednesday, it welcomed Maoist Centre’s Shiv Chandra Kushwaha to its fold with a plan to field him against Upendra Yadav in Bara-2.

The Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, the Janamat Party and the Nagarik Unmukti Party had forged a working alliance ahead of the vice-presidential election. Mamata Jha from the Janamat Party stood a distant third, with even the parties of the ‘working alliance’ not voting for her. Now the partners of the alliance are keen on fielding their separate candidates.

“The more candidates other parties field, the better the prospects of our candidate,” Jha said. “Kushwaha, an influential local leader, had lost the November elections to Ramsahay Prasad Yadav by fewer than 400 votes. His votes and Janamat Party’s votes will remain intact and we will win, even if the Nepali Congress supports the Janata Samajbadi Party.” Ramsahay won the parliamentary election last year securing 13,822 votes with the backing of the CPN-UML. Kushwaha came close, with 13,468 votes.

The Election Commission has scheduled by-elections in three constituencies. Ramchandra Paudel and Ramsahay Prasad Yadav—who were elected from Tanahun-1 and Bara-2—became President and Vice President, respectively. Rabi Lamichhane of Rastriya Swatantra Party had lost his parliamentary post after the Supreme Court invalidated the citizenship certificate he produced while filing his candidacy. Now he has re-acquired the certificate.

Madhesh-based leaders of the Nepali Congress, on the other hand, say they will support Upendra Yadav’s candidacy in Bara-2. “We have already been directed by the party’s central body to support the candidacy of Janata Samajbadi’s Yadav in Bara-2,” said Nitesh Gupta, publicity department chief of the Congress Madhesh Province chapter.

Traditionally, the constituency is a stronghold of the Nepali Congress.

Voices have also surfaced in the Congress’ Madhesh body that the party should rightfully claim to lead the Madhesh provincial government now. “As we are the largest party in Madhesh from the ruling alliance and will support Yadav in the polls, we believe that the Nepali Congress should get its turn to lead the government,” said Gupta.

The Bara Chapter of Congress had recommended Radhe Chandra Yadav as the candidate.

Observers say the Bara by-election exposes the fragmentation in Madhesh politics and the competition among key leaders to lead regional politics.

Madhesh politics was robust from 2008–2013 as it was heated up due to the Madhesh movement. Until 2013, the Madhesh-based parties went through multiple splits and fared poorly in the second Constituent Assembly elections in 2013. The 2015-16 Madhesh movement united Madhesh forces again. As a result, they fared somewhat better in 2017 major elections. But after 2018, as political analyst Vijay Kant Karna puts it, the Madhesh politics has been going through a phase of fragmentation and rivalry. “Madhesh-based parties have been competing against each other to claim the province’s leadership but it’s not a competition about policies and agendas for development,” he said.

This fragmentation has proved to be a fertile ground for ascendant politicians like Janamat Party chair CK Raut to lure votes of dissidents who are disenchanted with the traditional Madhesh-based parties. Raut’s party won six seats in the lower house in the major polls. “Raut thinks that if he defeats Upendra Yadav, he will emerge as the ‘leader’ of Madhesh,” Karna said. “But being the sole leader of Tarai-Madhesh is in no way possible.” Karna added that Rajendra Mahato, on the other hand, is fighting for his own and his party’s existence.

The Loktantrik Samajbadi Party fared poorly in the last major polls—it could not get the threshold votes to become a national party. Mahato was defeated by Mahindra Raya Yadav of the Nepal Samajbadi Party in the November general election from Sarlahi-2.

Karna said that Raut also wants to create a political space for himself and his party in the Bara, Parsa and Rautahat districts where the party’s hold is comparatively weaker.