The guns have gone silent in Gaza with the ceasefire coming into effect, as life limps back to what is considered normal in the enclave, devastated by incessant Israeli bombing for the past 15 months.

But the war is far from over with the Zionist regime still not willing to end its occupation. It’s only the first phase of the three-stage truce process that is being implemented; there are still questions about Israel fulfilling its promise of complete withdrawal. An eerie calm prevails, with the people of Gaza continuing to live under siege. Two Palestinian men, including a teenager, were killed by Israeli forces hours after the ceasefire started.

The Israeli prime minister has threatened to resume military operations if the second phase of the truce doesn’t work. There is still no mention of an independent Palestinian state.

It is a tentative peace with hundreds of thousands of Palestinians returning to the rubble that was once their home. There are still dead bodies buried underneath. Each one of them has lost a family member or acquaintance in the genocide that has left more than 46,000 people dead and thousands of others gravely injured. Most of them are children.

Yet the resilience of the people who have gone through a genocidal war is indomitable. The spectacle of thousands of people celebrating the ceasefire, waving Palestinian flags on the streets of the devastated enclave underscores their resolve in the face of adversity. Israel’s military might, backed by the United States, has failed to destroy the resistance.

Hamas was back taking charge immediately after the ceasefire. Thousands of Hamas fighters have re-emerged from hiding and have re-established control over the enclave. It was apparent that despite the horror it has wrought Israel has failed to achieve its main objective of eliminating the resistance groups. According to some reports, more recruits have joined the militant outfits, replacing the fighters who were killed by Israeli forces.

After months of hectic diplomatic engagements that involved Qatar, Egypt and the US, the two sides finally reached a ceasefire agreement last week. The main resistance to the truce had come from Tel Aviv, which was not willing to withdraw its forces from the occupied territory. The three-phase deal finally came through just days before the installation of Donald Trump as US president. Interestingly, there was no significant change in the peace draft that has been on the table since May last year. There are several factors that seem to have led to the change of stance by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

It may be true that pressure from Donald Trump forced the right-wing Israeli government to step back from its hard-line position. Trump had repeatedly threatened that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages were not released ahead of his January 20 inauguration. And surely it did happen with some arm-twisting by Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. According to media reports quoting some Arab diplomats involved in the negotiations, a “tense” weekend meeting between PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Witkoff led to a breakthrough in the hostage negotiations.

The first part of the three-phased deal began with a six-week ceasefire and the exchange of the first batch of three Israeli hostages taken by Hamas in October 2023, and some 90 Palestinian prisoners by Tel Aviv. Over the next six weeks, if the deal holds, 33 of the roughly 100 remaining hostages still in Gaza—living and dead—and more than 1,000 imprisoned Palestinians held in Israel will be released.

In the second phase a permanent ceasefire would follow complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The third phase envisages reconstruction process lasting from three to five year. It all sounds good on paper but there is a strong suspicion that Israel, under pressure from its far right, would not abide by the agreement in the second phase. Some coalition members of the Netanyahu government are already talking about not extending the ceasefire to the second phase, which would really mark the effective end of the war.

It remains to be seen how the Trump administration would allow the deal to fall apart. President Trump, who has claimed credit for brokering the ceasefire deal, last week declared that he would build up the momentum of the freshly agreed upon Gaza ceasefire deal to expand the “historic” Abraham Accords.The US-backed agreements struck during his first term normalised Israel’s relations with several Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco. “We will continue promoting peace through strength throughout the region” the new US president said.

President Trump would seek to broaden the deal to include major Arab power Saudi Arabia. During his previous term he succeeded to bring Tel Aviv and Riyadh closer. But Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza has halted the move. Riyadh has said it will not consider normalising relations until Israel commits to a “credible path” to a Palestinian state. “Normalisation and true stability will only come through … giving the Palestinians a state,” declared the Saudi foreign minister.

While there is no indication that the new administration in Washington would press Israel to agree to the two-state solution, President Trump appears optimistic that Saudi Arabia could still be persuaded to come into the fold of the Abraham Accords.One is not sure that Trump’s Middle East project would work without Israel accepting the two-state solution. In fact, some senior members of Mr Trump’s nominated cabinet favour a further or even complete Israeli annexation of the West Bank, which could make a viable Palestinian state almost impossible. In such a situation there is no hope of ending the Middle East conflict.

Indeed, the ceasefire, along with provisions to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, has provided some relief to the hapless population. But a temporary peace and opening of the food supply cannot heal the wounds of such relentless oppression.The most crucial question is whether the Palestinians would be able to get their rights and have full control over their land and their lives. How can people in Gaza live in peace while being under an everlasting state of siege?

In association with Dawn (Pakistan)/ANN