The results of the recent general election tell a clear story: the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) secured a landslide, winning 125 of the 165 First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) seats. In contrast, the combined strength of the traditional heavyweights—the Nepali Congress (NC), the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML), and the Nepali Communist Party (NCP)—was reduced to just 35 seats.

However, a deeper analysis of the proportional representation (PR) data across all 165 constituencies reveals a far more systemic crisis for the establishment. The traditional parties have not only lost seats; the very bedrock of their institutional support appears to be eroding.

Candidate versus Party

In the election held on March 5, voters cast two separate ballots: one for a local candidate and another for a national party. While local factors such as a candidate’s personality and community influence often drive the direct vote, the PR ballot is widely seen as the true barometer of a party’s brand strength.

The data shows a striking trend: support for the “Big Three” was driven more by the individual strength of their candidates than by loyalty to the parties themselves.

In 146 out of 165 constituencies, NC candidates received more votes than the party did in the PR category. Nationally, the party lost more than 250,000 votes—around 12 percent—between the direct and PR ballots. In other words, roughly one in eight voters who backed an NC candidate declined to support the party in the PR vote.

The UML faced a similar deficit in 138 constituencies. About 10 percent of those who voted for a UML candidate—approximately 170,000 voters—chose a different party in the PR ballot.

The decline was steepest in the NCP’s case. The party lost 17 percent of its support—around 165,000 votes—in the PR transition, failing to retain the party vote in 115 constituencies.

Combined, these three parties lost nearly 600,000 votes to emerging forces, primarily the RSP and the Shram Sanskriti Party.

Rise of the ‘New’

The RSP’s performance was the inverse of the traditional parties. In 153 constituencies, the party received significantly more PR votes than its individual candidates did. Overall, the RSP attracted about 550,000 more votes in the PR category than in the direct contest.

Remarkably, the party emerged as the top PR choice in all 125 seats it won directly, as well as in 10 additional constituencies where its candidates were defeated. For example, in Sindhupalchok-2, a Maoist candidate won the direct seat, but the RSP led the PR count by 13,000 votes. Similar trends were observed in Kapilvastu-3 and Palpa-1, where the NC won the seats but the RSP dominated the party vote.

The Shram Sanskriti Party also made notable gains in eastern Nepal. While winning three direct seats—Bhojpur, Khotang and Sunsari-1—it topped the PR polls in three additional constituencies: Ilam-1, Ilam-2 and Panchthar, displacing the traditional dominance of the NC and UML.

A ‘Quiet Rebellion’

Analysts suggest this shift represents a form of rebellion from within. Political analyst Chandra Kishore says many long-time party cadres, disillusioned with their leadership, voted for their local candidates out of habit or personal ties but chose the RSP for the national party vote as a form of protest.

“This is a Gen Z-led movement against the narrative that parties ruling since 1990 are solely responsible for the current state of the country,” says Mrigendra Karki, executive director of the Centre for Nepal and Asian Studies. He observed that while traditional voters were once split between the NC and the Left based on socio-economic aspirations, both groups converged on the RSP this time to “give the new guys a chance”.

Statisticians also point to the “Balen factor”. Balen Shah significantly boosted the RSP’s PR numbers, said Balkrishna Khadka, with many voters viewing a vote for the “Bell” symbol as a pathway to making Shah the prime minister.

With 54 percent of voters previously reporting a complete lack of trust in any political party, this election suggests that the “silent majority” has finally spoken—leaving the foundations of Nepal’s traditional political landscape under serious strain.