On May 21, Foreign Ministers Wang Yi of China, Ishaq Dar of Pakistan and Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaki of Afghanistan met in Beijing. This was a breakthrough for Pakistan, whose relationship with the Taliban had deteriorated over several issues, including the presence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Afghanistan, cross-border raids, and the expulsion of undocumented Afghan refugees from Pakistan in retaliation for the Taliban’s inaction against TTP.

Parallel to the deterioration of Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban was the latter’s outreach to India, which has a keen interest in cultivating the Afghanistan interim regime. India’s Foreign Secretary visited Afghanistan in January this year, marking a new beginning. While Pakistan said that Indian missiles targeted Afghanistan during Operation Sindoor, India rejected it as a “ludicrous claim”. Afghanistan condemned the Pahalgam terrorist attack, and India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on May 16 had a telephonic conversation with Amir Khan Muttaqi, Afghanistan’s acting Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Therefore, it is unsurprising that its well-weathered friend China took the initiative to hold an informal trilateral foreign ministers meeting. The talks about the meeting were initiated in 2017 and became dormant for some time to help Pakistan and Afghanistan reach an understanding regarding the widening differences in their bilateral relations. After the meeting, Pakistan announced that it would send an ambassador to Afghanistan, the first such diplomatic upgrading after the Taliban took over power. In response, Afghanistan announced that it is elevating the status of its mission in Islamabad from chargé d’affaires to ambassador.

The trilateral meeting

The seven points that the three countries agreed upon were highlighted by the Communist Party of China’s Political Bureau member and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi: Enhancing mutual trust, good neighbourliness and friendship; reviving the trilateral forum and striving to hold the sixth trilateral dialogue in Kabul; strengthening diplomatic contact and exchanging ambassadors; deepening BRI and extending China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan; enhancing Afghanistan’s capacity for development; opposing all forms of terrorism and staying vigilant against external interference in the internal affairs of regional countries and creating sound external environment and safeguarding regional peace stability.

Afghanistan hosted the meeting to follow up on the recently concluded trilateral foreign ministers’ meeting and prepare for the next meeting in Kabul on May 10. The meeting involved China’s special envoy Yue Xiaoyong, Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, Mohammad Sadiq and the acting foreign minister of Afghanistan, Muttaqi. This is crucial for preparing the countries and setting the formal trilateral foreign ministers’ meeting agenda.

Connecting Afghanistan

Expanding CPEC to Afghanistan has been the most significant among the seven points. However, India has opposed the CPEC, citing that it violates its sovereignty over Jammu and Kashmir. China has been developing several projects under the CPEC in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir; expanding CPEC to Afghanistan would mean it wants to provide an alternative connectivity to Afghanistan.

The talk to extend CPEC to Afghanistan materialised in 2017. However, given the presence of ISIS, the security in Afghanistan remains volatile. The internal conflict within the Taliban government is also worrying.

In a bid to attract investment, the Taliban expressed interest in joining the Chinese-sponsored BRI in 2023. Afghanistan is also curious about the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multilateral initiative, and the Indian-built Chabahar port in Iran. The Taliban wants to seek alternative routes for its external trade rather than depending solely on Pakistan.

Geopolitics of Wakhan Corridor

The inauguration of a 50-km stretch of the Wakhan corridor linking Afghanistan directly to China in September 2023 is noteworthy. There are possibilities of linking this road further to Tajikistan in Central Asia. Discussions on Central Asia and South Asia (CASA) connectivity have been ongoing for many years, but have not progressed. China has long worked to make the Gwadar port an economic hub for Central Asia and Afghanistan to generate substantial revenue.

Pakistan is interested in having strategic control over the Wakhan corridor as a major link to Central Asia, through which Tajikistan will form a gateway. Since the Soviet withdrawal, Pakistan has been eyeing a trading route to Central Asia through Afghanistan. But that didn’t materialise as violence and instability have engulfed Afghanistan for years. In light of this, the Wakhan corridor could be a game changer. The renewed trilateral meeting would help Pakistan ease tension with the Taliban and emerge as a major stakeholder in the connectivity project. Pakistan-Afghanistan tension also impacts China’s geo-strategic interests, which include expanding CPEC and protecting its infrastructure and its workers from terror attacks.

Yet it is unclear whether China will bear the cost of building the corridor that passes through the Soviet built Salang Tunnel, located at the Salang Pass in northern Parwan Province of Afghanistan.

Overcoming political divergences

There is a speculation regarding the Inter-Service Intelligence Chief, General Asim Malik’s visit to Tajikistan in December 2024. Some thought he was keen to revive the anti-Taliban alliance, the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, as Islamabad’s relations with Kabul deteriorated. Some attributed this to the proposed Wakhan corridor, which will link Pakistan to Tajikistan. Earlier, on January 10, Taliban Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Stanekzai accused Pakistan of training ISIS to fight the Taliban. In December, Taliban Minister of Refugees, Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani, was killed in Kabul, which was claimed by the ISIS affiliate, Islamic State–Khorasan Province.

In the evolving geopolitics where connectivity remains key, Afghanistan has remained central to South Asia and Central Asia connectivity. The landlocked Central Asian countries want to connect through the China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor, which is part of the BRI. Besides that, the Northern Corridor, South Corridor and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which is otherwise known as the Middle Corridor, serve as major transit trade corridors for the landlocked Central Asian countries. In this context, the Wakhan corridor will provide access to Pakistan to further connect to Central Asia and Europe.

The trilateral Foreign Ministers Dialogue will open a new opportunity for the three countries if only Pakistan and Afghanistan overcome their mistrust and misgivings over terrorism and cross-border raids.