Gagan Thapa, the 46-year-old general secretary of the Nepali Congress, will run against the 76-year-old party president Sher Bahadur Deuba for the position of parliamentary party leader in an election today. To be elected the leader, a candidate has to secure the backing of at least 45 of the party’s 89 lawmakers.

“Whether or not Gagan Thapa wins the parliamentary party election on Wednesday, by being picked as the opposition faction’s consensual candidate, he has already projected himself as the party’s future leader,” Krishna Khanal, a political analyst, told the Post. “While Thapa was the de facto leader of the party earlier too, he will now get a chance to establish himself as an independent power centre.”

Many in the opposition faction, however, do not accept Thapa as their leader. “Although our group recommended Thapa’s name for the parliamentary party leader, Shekhar Koirala is still our leader,” said Sanjaya Kumar Gautam, a party lawmaker.

Thapa got the approval to contest the election following his meeting on Tuesday with at least 35 Congress lawmakers. The group also decided to endorse Koirala as party president at the 15th general convention. (Koirala had lost the race for party presidency to Deuba at the 14th Nepali Congress general convention in December 2021.)

Koirala, addressing the meeting of his followers at the venue, said: “I am in favour of a generational shift in politics. That is why I would like to support Gagan Thapa for the position of parliamentary party leader.”

It is said that Koirala decided to support Thapa’s bid for parliamentary party leadership after he was promised the faction’s backing in the presidential contest at the next general convention.

However, some experts disagree with that reading.

“Koirala wasn’t going to fight a losing battle. He instead pushed someone from the younger generation when he saw that his own chances of winning the parliamentary party election were slim,” Rajesh Gautam, a political analyst, told the Post. “Had he been more certain of winning, he would not have backed Thapa.”

However, Gautam said Thapa’s decision to contest parliamentary party leadership is a significant step. “The message is that Thapa has dared to fight such a formidable foe,” Gautam said. “His winning or losing is really irrelevant.”

In the run-up to Wednesday’s party election, Congress leader Ram Chandra Paudel proposed Deuba’s name for parliamentary party leader, while party vice-president Purna Bahadur Khadka seconded his proposal. Though Paudel himself was an aspirant for the post, he could not garner the support from rival factions.

Koirala proposed Thapa’s name for parliamentary party leader, while another vice-president Dhanaraj Gurung, another general secretary Bishwa Parkash Sharma and Pradip Paudel, a party leader, seconded the proposal.

Although leaders close to Thapa claim he will put up a strong fight, Deuba’s chances of winning remain strong.

Deuba is favoured to win parliamentary party leadership as most of the incoming Congress parliamentarians are from his camp.

However, a party leader close to Thapa, said: “Yes, we will need to put in some effort but a victory for our candidate is not impossible.”

Meanwhile, President Bidya Devi Bhandari has already invited House members to claim the office of the prime minister by December 25. As a result, the Congress will choose its parliamentary party leader before the lawmakers-elect are sworn in.

According to Nepali Congress’ statute, any party leader who aspires to become prime minister must first win the election for parliamentary party leader. If more than one candidate stakes a claim for the position, an election will be held to determine the winner.

Deuba’s establishment camp claims it has the support of at least 55 lawmakers, while Thapa’s rival camp claims the backing of around 38 lawmakers as of Tuesday evening.

The election for the parliamentary party leadership is scheduled to be held at 8 am on Tuesday at the party’s parliamentary committee office at Singha Durbar.