As the government considers amending the law to increase the minimum vote percentage (threshold) required for parties to be eligible to secure seats under the proportional representation (PR) category, traditional Madhesh-based parties and new outfits are exploring a ‘loose alliance’ between them.

The Madhesh-based regional forces, which have unified and split multiple times in the past, are now trying to regroup. They purportedly want to create a force that can challenge the major political parties, alleging that the latter are trying to impose ‘a two-party’ domination on smaller parties.

The Ministry of Home Affairs is preparing to amend the law, proposing that only parties that get at least 5 percent of the votes in the House of Representatives elections qualify for PR seats in the House, while those receiving at least 3 percent in the provincial assembly elections will be eligible for PR seats in provincial assemblies.

At present, the threshold provision stands at 3 percent in the House of Representatives and 1.5 percent in provincial assemblies.

The Home Minister has forwarded the Electoral Reform Bill and the proposal to his ministry, according to Ajaya Kumar Chaurasia, the minister for law.

“The Electoral Reform Bill has come to the law ministry for necessary homework,” Minister Chaurasia told the Post.

If the Electoral Reform Bill, which raises the threshold bar to 5 and 3 percent in the House and provincial assemblies, is endorsed, it could hamper the electoral prospects of the divided Madheshi parties in the upcoming elections.

In the federal parliament, several Tarai-based political parties are represented, including the Ashok Rai-led Janata Samajbadi Party (7 seats), CK Raut-led Janamat Party (6 seats), Upendra Yadav-led Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal (5 seats), Mahanta Thakur-led Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (4 seats), Ranjita Shrestha-led Nagarik Unmukti Party (4 seats), and Prabhu Sah-led Am Janata Party (1 seat). Also, there is an independent lawmaker from Tarai, Amresh Kumar Singh.

The Janamat Party, which is part of the ruling coalition, emerged as a political force in Madhesh after the November 2022 elections, with six seats in the federal parliament. It has formed a two-member task force led by the party’s vice-chair, Abdul Khan, to hold talks with other Madheshi parties about forming a loose network of regional forces.

Khan says that Madheshi parties and those representing various marginalised communities are working to form a loose network, which could later evolve into an alliance for the upcoming elections. He added that, if successful, the alliance could be a base for an eventual unification of Madheshi parties.

“As the present government considers changing the threshold provision, the Madheshi parties, along with those representing marginalised communities, have been compelled to come together to consolidate their strength,” Khan said. “All the Madhesh-based parties and the parties that represent marginalised communities are positive about forming a loose network.”

According to Khan, each Tarai-Madhes-based party has formed a task force to discuss this matter with other political forces.

Among the leaders working to bring the Madheshi parties together is Hridayesh Tripathi, chairman of the Janata Pragatisheel Party. The party, however, has no seats in federal parliament. Tripathi has been holding talks with Madhesh-based leaders and urging them to come under one umbrella.

“I have been making this effort for over six months. Now I have started meeting top leaders of Madhesh-based political parties,” Tripathi told the Post. His team has urged the leaders to create a ‘loose alliance’ that could eventually become a unified front for the ‘larger cause of the Madhesh and the Madheshi people.’

For this, Tripathi has also formed a three-member taskforce to hold talks with leaders from other Madhesh-based political parties.

These intend to come together to secure the rights they obtained through the Madhesh movement, says Jitendra Sonal, Madhesh Province chair of Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP) led by Mahantha Thakur.

Sonal said his party had also formed a taskforce to negotiate with the Madheshi parties.

“The ruling parties’ plan of a two-party system and high election thresholds are the reasons the Madhesh-based parties are exploring a closer working relationship,” Sonal said. “The two big parties are trying to undermine the rights of the marginalised.”

Yet, as things stand, it would also be an exaggeration to say that all Madhesh-based parties are on the same page.

Prabhu Sah, chair of the Am Janata Party, says he is unaware of any effort to bring together the Madhesh-based parties.

“I am not aware of such efforts. Maybe other political parties are considering it, but not my party,” Sah told the Post.

The Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal, led by Upendra Yadav, is however positive about forming a loose network and has formed a taskforce to discuss the matter with other parties. However, Yadav does not want the Ashok Rai-led Janata Samajbadi Party in the loose network. Rai had split from Yadav’s party and launched his own last year.

“It is just a splinter faction of our party, and not a real party. We won’t accept them as a member of the network,” JSP-Nepal spokesman Manish Kumar Suman said. Yadav has also challenged the Election Commission’s decision to register the Rai-led party. The case is now sub judice in the Supreme Court.

However, Amresh Kumar Singh is confident that such a ‘loose alliance’ of Madhesi parties will take shape. Singh also claims that Prabhu Sah as well as all other Madhesh-based parties will join the network.

“With the two largest political parties determined to undermine the rights of regional and smaller parties, it is high time we came together,” Singh said. “But this also does not mean we have to immediately form a single party.”

But then how effective can such an alliance (or even party unity) of Madhesh-based parties be? They have united before, only to later fall apart.

In the 2017 federal and provincial elections, two Madhesh-based parties, led by Upendra Yadav and Mahantha Thakur, fought under an alliance and won many seats. In Madhesh Province, the two parties formed a government and later unified into the Janata Samajbadi Party, ending a series of splits that had for long plagued the regional forces. But their unity did not last.

Divided Madheshi parties performed poorly in the November 2022 elections compared to 2008 and 2017.

Likewise, LSP, the party led by Mahanta Thakur, also witnessed a split after party leader Rajendra Mahato broke away to form Rastriya Mukti Kranti Nepal last year.

But LSP leader Sonal says that politics does not follow a straight line and insists that just because an experiment failed in the past, it is not necessary that all such experiments fail in the future as well.

“Whenever the situation has demanded it, Madhesh-based parties have come together to collectively fight for their rights,” Sonal claimed. “This time, it is the unilateral ways of the two big parties that has forced us to come together.”