On October 1, 1949, Mao Zedong, then Chairman of the Communist Party of China (CPC) proclaimed the birth of the People’s Republic of China from the ramparts of Tiananmen Square. On October 1 this year, again from Tiananmen Square, Xi Jinping, the current General Secretary of CPC, President of China and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, all in one, led the celebration of China's astounding military and economic accomplishments over the last 70 years.

Xi spoke of China’s unstoppable progress and stability in Hong Kong and Macau. He reiterated the One-China policy, his commitment to the ‘one country, two systems’ model of governance and predicted a peaceful reunification with Taiwan under the same model. In a separate speech on the day before the Tiananmen celebrations, Xi had exhorted the Chinese ‘to be unified under the Communist Party to overcome challenges’.

The Square and its surroundings were under a total security lockdown for a few days before the celebrations. Access in and out of the nearby hotels was restricted; commuter train passengers heading towards the Square were subjected to security checks, and anyone seen to speak with foreigners questioned. The Chinese communist party wanted to make sure no one harbouring democratic ideals found a way to the Square to spoil the show. Any mention of the Tiananmen massacre is forbidden in China.

The celebration was choreographed to perfection. Fifteen thousand military personnel took part in the parade while hundreds of aircraft roared over them. Many of China's latest nuclear missiles were on display. The Square was festooned with China’s national flags and placards featuring Xi’s photos.

Tens of millions of innocent citizens who perished over the last 70 years due to the communist party’s egregious policies such as the Great Leap Forward (1958-1962) and the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) were conveniently forgotten. It was an impressive, colourful, albeit stifling ceremony.

Hong Kong Protests

The scene 2,000 km away in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region was a complete contrast. For nearly four months, Hongkongers have been protesting against China’s interference in their internal matters in contravention of the Basic Law and demanding, amongst others, the democratisation of Hong Kong’s electoral process.

The Basic Law, which formed a part of the Sino-British joint declaration signed at the time of Britain’s handover of Hong Kong to China in 1997, guaranteed self-governance to this Special Administrative Region under the so called ‘one country, two systems’ model. The Basic Law included assurances that Hong Kong would continue with its capitalist system, have an independent judiciary, and respect freedom of speech and a free press. Besides, it stipulated that Hong Kong would take steps towards a further democratisation of its elections.

It was certain the October 1 protests in Hong Kong would not be celebratory. Before October 1, the Hong Kong government had cancelled all public celebrations for fear of backlash. Even flag raising rituals were conducted indoors.

Yet, October 1 became a day of marked violence and defiance in Hong Kong. Over 150,000 Hongkongers came to the streets defying the government ban on demonstrations. They called the 70th anniversary ‘a day of grief’. They defaced Chinas’ flag and trampled on Xi Jinping’s photos. Police fired tear gas and rubber bullets whilst protestors threw brick missiles at the police. In a pitched battle with the police, one 18 year old was shot and critically injured. This was the first time in four months live ammunition was fired at the demonstrators.

The violence cast a long shadow in China’s moment of pride and gave a violent thumbs down to Xi Jinping’s appeal to unite. The rhetoric in Beijing aside, it is unlikely that, under the present circumstances, the Hongkongers and the Taiwanese will willingly rally around the Communist Party of China to form a united China. They will not recognise the authority of the communist party until they are convinced that their freedom will be fully protected and their right for free and fair elections is secure.

Xi’s immediate challenge is to quell the Hong Kong protests. Much of how his one-China dream evolves depends on how he does it.

Xi’s options

Xi has three options: crush the protest by military action, like in Tiananmen Square in 1989; accept the protesters' demands; or let the protests continue—hoping it will lose steam.

Military action is not the answer, because it aggravates China’s chances of peacefully annexing Taiwan under the ‘one country, two systems’ model. Since the Hong Kong demonstrations began, Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen’s approval ratings have risen significantly. Tsai does not support union with China. To the Taiwanese, China’s interference in Hong Kong proves that the Asian giant cannot be relied upon to keep its words.

Military action will also hurt both Hong Kong and China's economy and the country’s international profile. Investor confidence in Hong Kong is plummeting. On September 16, credit rating agency Moody's changed its outlook on Hong Kong from stable to negative. A poor credit rating will undermine China’s advantage in using Hong Kong as a major source of equity funding.

Giving in to the Hong Kong protestor’s demands is not the answer. Not only because it goes against what the Communist Party of China stands for, but perhaps, giving in could trigger copycat demands and demonstrations in the mainland, particularly where people already feel repressed, like in Tibet and Uighur. Also, the Chinese authorities will not accept a loss of face.

There are indications Beijing is working on a strategy to let the protests continue, but break the movement by dividing the demonstrators into violent and peaceful. If the demonstration gets too violent and starts to hurt ordinary Hongkongers' livelihood, it may lose support.

There is a strong rumour amongst China critiques that mainland police are already secretly infiltrating the demonstration. Their job is to incite violence by provoking the demonstrators. The latest battle cry of demonstrators is ‘Glory to Hong Kong’. They have vowed to continue to fight until all of their demands are met.

This is a fight for Hong Kong's self-rule; for compliance to the ‘one country, two systems’ model. It also signifies a clash of global values—liberalism versus authoritarianism. Whatever happens, Hong Kong will be a thorn in China's side for a long time to come. Xi’s dream of one-China under its communist party will remain elusive for a long lime.