CPN (Maoist Centre) chairman and former prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal looks increasingly confident that the incumbent government of KP Sharma Oli is on the verge of collapse.

Adding fuel to Dahal’s prediction, some Nepali Congress leaders, mostly from the Shekhar Koirala faction, have been expressing anguish and frustration with the Oli government and have warned that either the government should perform better or the Congress should quit the ruling coalition.

At the same time, Prime Minister Oli’s popularity has been declining due to controversial decisions made in his dual capacity as prime minister and CPN-UML chief.

Amid all this, Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, aged 78, finds himself in a tough spot. While he is hoping for one last term as prime minister under last July’s agreement with Oli, he faces growing internal and external pressure to form a new coalition minus the UML, according to party leaders.

Speaking to media persons in Sukute of Sindhupalchok on Tuesday, Dahal said the government’s own actions are hastening its demise.

“The very foundation of this government was unnatural. There is growing dissatisfaction within the Congress as the government’s popularity is dipping by the day. Its days are numbered and it will collapse on its own. We do not need to make any additional effort,” said Dahal.

Deuba, however, has yet to take decisive action. According to multiple leaders from various parties, he is constantly receiving “feelers” from external and internal interlocutors to form a new ruling coalition without the UML. He has not fully calculated the potential outcomes of such a move, according to Congress leaders.

Some opposition leaders are looking to join the government, while some external forces are reportedly dissatisfied with the Oli government, especially after he signed the Belt and Road Initiative agreement with China with the backing of a faction within the Congress.

A senior leader from the Deuba camp alleged that some Congress leaders are “dancing to the tunes of Dahal and external forces”. “Everyone is driven by their own petty, short-term interests, but no one seems to have a permanent solution to the political instability,” the leader told the Post.

If Deuba comes under intense pressure to form a new government without the UML, Oli himself will hand over power to Deuba, said one Congress leader.

“On the other hand, Oli might introduce a new bill or ordinance to ease the splitting of political parties. And if some smaller parties do split, a new political situation will unfold.”

If Oli himself hands over power to Deuba and if Congress and UML reach a new political deal, then the plans of Dahal and other leaders who are dreaming of a new coalition will fall apart, said the Congress leader.

There is strong discontent in the Congress over the Oli government’s functioning, particularly in the Koirala faction. But this dissident faction does not have the strength to replace Deuba as the party’s parliamentary leader or to split the Congress.

“All these statements and rumours are aimed at driving a wedge between Oli and Deuba,” said Min Bishowkarma, head of publicity division of the Congress and a Deuba confidant. “I am also surprised why such remarks are coming. So long as Deuba and Oli are together, no one can topple the government.”

But Jagannath Khatiwada, spokesperson of CPN (Unified Socialist), another opposition party, agrees with Dahal. “As per my information and analysis, this government is likely to fall soon,” said Khatiwada. “You wouldn’t be surprised if the Oli government collapses as early as next week.”

“In the new political dispensation, Deuba will lead the new government as the leader of the largest party. The aim is to form a new alliance minus the UML. But if Deuba is ready to lead such a coalition, the UML might hand over power to Deuba immediately to prevent being excluded,” said Khatiwada.

If the Congress, particularly Deuba, realises that Oli may not honour their July power-sharing agreement, then the party will have no option but to quit the government and form a new coalition, he said.

The Congress-UML deal signed in mid-July last year states that Oli would lead the government for the first two years of the remaining three-and-a-half-year parliamentary term, followed by Deuba, who will be at the helm until the next elections. Khatiwada ruled out the possibility of communist parties forming a new ruling coalition.

But a leader from the Congress’ Koirala camp told the Post that although Deuba is under intense pressure from both external and internal stakeholders, he is not ready to lead a new government by betraying Oli.

Deuba is weighing all options including whether the alliance can last, chances of communist parties coming together before the upcoming elections and the mood of his own party leaders, said the Congress leader. “That’s why it might take another month to lay the groundwork for a new government.”

But many Congress leaders believe that until and unless relations between Oli and Deuba do not deteriorate, it will be impossible to topple the present government. Similar sentiments are prevalent inside the UML.

“There is a strong bond between Oli and Deuba,” UML central committee member Bishnu Rijal said. “Until both leaders decide that they do not need each other, the current coalition will remain intact. Also, unlike what was reported in some media outlets, Oli had informed Deuba and taken his consent before signing the BRI agreement during his China visit.”

“The level of trust and confidence between Oli and Deuba has not shaken and the political foundation of the current government is still strong. If the government of the two largest parties does not do well, how can a government of small and fringe parties run for the next three years? It seems some leaders like Dahal are only expressing their frustration in an attempt to exploit the current political uncertainty,” said Rijal.

A senior leader from a Madhesh-based party also hinted that the political situation is getting increasingly unfavorable for the Oli government.

“I can say that Deuba is under intense pressure from external and internal stakeholders. Many leaders who are in the opposition are instigating him to form the next government, but he is not convinced,” the leader said.

Although Dahal remains confident about the government’s downfall, he refrained from setting a deadline.

“I cannot set a timeline, but given the way political developments are unfolding and given the dissatisfaction inside the Nepali Congress and even within the Deuba’s camp, I doubt this government will last long. But I am not in the game of toppling the government. I am simply relaxing now,” Dahal told reporters on Tuesday.