After the change of coalition partners on March 4, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal sought a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives on March 20. Dahal had gone for the floor test after breaking ties with the main coalition partner Nepali Congress, to bring the CPN-UML into the government.

On the same day, while addressing the House, UML chief KP Sharma Oli had said, “Despite our continuous efforts to keep the channel of dialogue open with the Nepali Congress leaders, they refused to engage with us.”

Oli added, “As we now join the government, we are always open to talk to you, because we aren’t like you.”

When Oli was saying so from the rostrum of the House of Representatives, Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, who was sitting in the first seat of the opposition bench, nodded in agreement.

Just 100 days later, the political meetings on Saturday brought back that scene of the federal parliament, sparking speculations about new political alignments.

“The current ad hoc politics in the country, as acknowledged by the prime minister, is unsustainable. Dahal himself admits that he hasn’t been able to do anything significant since the change in coalition except shuffling ministers. And the Deuba-Oli meeting taking place amid Oli’s public statements that he is not happy with the government, suggests something’s cooking,” claims an opposition leader.

A Congress leader close to Deuba speculated that it was probably in 2022 when the Deuba couple last reached the Oli residence, back then to persuade Oli to help the government endorse the US Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) compact from Parliament. At the time, Deuba was the prime minister, and Oli was the leader of the main opposition in the House.

The new meeting of the chiefs of the country’s two largest parties fuelled speculations about a potential power-sharing agreement. Many construed it as politically meaningful as Oli, while hosting the Deuba couple at his home, skipped a function organised by the Pushpalal Memorial Foundation citing poor health.

Min Bahadur Bishwakarma, the head of Congress's publicity department, said the two former prime ministers had serious discussions on issues ranging from national politics, the unfinished decades-old transitional justice process, and possible cooperation to resolve other national issues.

“The meeting was positive but it does not mean that the two parties have agreed to form a new government under their leadership,” Bishwakarma told the Post. “But if positive discussions continue, such a possibility cannot be ruled out.”

But Rajendra Gautam, chief of the UML’s publicity department, dismissed the possibility of any change in the current coalition.

“The Dahal-led government remains stable and the UML will continue to support it,” he said. “The meeting between UML chair Oli and Congress chief Deuba was not aimed at unseating Prime Minister Dahal from power.”

The meeting between Deuba and Oli comes just a few weeks after UML chief Oli publicly criticised the annual budget presented by the government. He had termed it a ‘Maoist budget’. The UML chief however later changed his tone. The House of Representatives has already passed the appropriation bill.

“The UML chair Oli being critical of the budget does not necessarily mean he is trying to change the coalition,” Gautam claimed. “Our party chair was critical as our lawmakers have several grievances over the budget.”

Pradeep Gyawali, a deputy general secretary of the UML, and Gyanendra Bahadur Karki, a close ally of Deuba, also denied the possibility of power-sharing between the two parties anytime soon.

However, Congress leaders say that if the two big parties come together for power sharing, it would be for amending the constitution and addressing some national issues.

A day after hosting Deuba at his residence, Oli met Prime Minister Dahal on Sunday. They were later joined by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Home Affairs Rabi Lamichhane, who is also the president of the Rastriya Swatantra Party, the third largest partner in the coalition.

The leaders discussed contemporary politics, says an official at the secretariat of the prime minister. “The government’s future initiatives and other important issues were discussed,” a secretariat member told the Post.

Some media reports tried to link the Deuba-Oli meeting with yet another development, as it took place a day after Nepal Police arrested Bechan Jha, one of the alleged middlemen in the high-profile Bhutanese refugee scam.

Police last year filed cases against politicians, bureaucrats and middlemen on charges of defrauding hundreds of people by promising to send them to the US as Bhutanese refugees. But police were not able to book Jha despite his connection with the scam.

Jha is allegedly close to many political leaders, including senior Congress leaders, and the Congress leadership might have been worried that they too could be dragged into the refugee scam—and hence Deuba’s meeting with the leader of the biggest party in the ruling coalition.

But the Congress leaders argue that the Deuba couple visiting Balkot had no connection to Jha’s arrest. “Even before Saturday, the leaders of the two largest parties in Parliament had met at least twice following the formation of UML-Maoist coalition government,” the Congress leader told the Post. “The latest meeting was just a coincidence.”

Though the Congress leader terms it as a coincidence, a question arises: why was the picture of Saturday’s meeting publicised while the pictures of their previous meetings were not?

“The previous meetings between Deuba and Oli may not have been formal,” Bishwakarma said. “On Saturday, Oli had formally invited Deuba and his wife, which might be why the photo of their meeting was made public.”

Jha’s arrest and the Deuba couple’s meeting with Oli are two separate things, Bishawkarma added.

Rumours of Congress-UML alliance have swirled since the formation of the UML-Maoist Centre alliance on March 4. No leaders have given convincing reasons for why the Congress and the UML would want to come together. But some senior Congress leaders do emphasise the need for the two parties to come together in order to amend the constitution and change the electoral system to ensure political stability.

A few months back, UML deputy general secretary Bishnu Rimal had ruled out the possibility of the two largest parties coming together. The only condition in which the two parties may join forces is if UML chair Oli gets the government’s reins. But Rimal had argued that the constitutional provisions are more favourable to the Congress in case the current coalition falls.

If the UML, the largest party in the Dahal-led coalition government, withdraws its support, a new government will be formed as per Article 76 (3). In that case, Congress President Deuba would become the prime minister, which would not benefit the UML.

Article 76 (3) of the constitution states that in cases where the prime minister cannot be appointed under clause (2) within thirty days of the date of declaration of the final results of the election to the House of Representatives or the prime minister so appointed fails to secure a vote of confidence under clause (4), the President shall appoint as prime minister the parliamentary party leader of the party which has the highest number of House members.

Article 76 (4) relates to seeking a vote of confidence by the prime minister, who is elected without a clear majority and is the parliamentary party leader of the party with the most members in the House.

Meanwhile, the Congress has called a meeting of its office bearers and former office bearers on Monday. Party leaders claim that this has no link with Deuba meeting UML chair Oli on Saturday. “It is just a coincidence,” Congress leader Karki told the Post.