Nominations are in for a bellwether federal election in Ilam district of eastern Nepal.

The race for one seat each in the federal parliament and provincial assembly formally commenced on Saturday with around three dozen candidates registering their nominations for the two positions.

Twenty candidates including independents registered their nominations for the bypolls in Ilam-2 for the House of Representatives and 12 candidates presented their candidacy from Bajhang (A) constituency for the Sudurpaschim Provincial Assembly. The by-elections for the two positions will be held on April 27.

The contest in Ilam-2 is being closely watched as a gauge of the national mood, especially after the remarkable showing of the debutant Rastriya Swatantra Party in 2022 general elections and the 2023 by-elections.

Among the notable candidates, Suhang Nembang of the CPN-UML, Nepali Congress’s Dambar Bahadur Khadka, Milan Limbu of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Jit Bahadur Rai of the CPN (Unified Socialist) and Dekendra Singh Thegim, independent, filed their nominations from Ilam, according to the Election Commission.

Suhang, who is the youngest son of the Constituent Assembly chair and former Speaker Subas Chandra Nembang, also has the support of the CPN (Maoist Centre). The Communist Party of Nepal led by Netra Bikram Chand too has stood with Suhang. Thegim is a common candidate of the various fronts actively pursuing identity politics. The Janamat Party’s Prem Kumar Thamsuhang, Shyam Kumar Darji from the Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party and Mane Bahadur Limbu of Mangol National Organisation too are aspirants from Ilam.

The Ilam-2 seat has been vacant since the death of Subas, the UML vice-chairperson, last year. He died of a heart attack on September 13. The UML leader had continuously won the constituency since the 1999 general elections.

In the November 2022 poll, he defeated Khadka of the Congress by 114 votes. While he garnered 30,020 votes, Khadka, who was a common candidate of the Congress-led alliance, managed to get 29,906.

The Bajhang (A) seat has remained vacant after Prithvi Bahadur Singh, a provincial assembly member and also the provincial minister for internal affairs and law, died in a road accident in June last year. Singh, who contested on the Congress ticket as a common candidate of the alliance, won with 17,112 votes. His close contender was UML’s Aphilal Okheda, who got 13,336 votes.

While the Congress gave Khadka a second chance in Ilam, the UML has replaced Okheda in Bajhang. Dan Bahadur Bhandari is the UML candidate for the provincial assembly.

The Congress has fielded Abhishek Bahadur Singh, son of the deceased minister, while Janak Budha is the Maoist Centre’s candidate. Unlike in Ilam, where the Maoist Centre has supported the UML candidate, the two communist parties are facing each other in Bajhang. Dil Bahadur Singh of the Unified Socialist, Deepak Bahadur Khadka of the Sanghiya Rastriya Manch and Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party’s Khagendra Bahadur Shahi are the other candidates from Bajhang.

The RSP is not contesting the by-poll for the provincial assembly.

Observers in Ilam see a three-party fight for the federal constituency. “The race is between the UML, the Congress and the RSP,” said Dharma Gautam, a political analyst from Ilam. “As of now, I see Suhang best-placed to win. The dynamic might change by the time of voting.”

He says there is dissatisfaction among a section of local UML leaders for picking Suhang, who has made little contribution to the party. However, the party leadership has issued a strong warning against any instance of non-cooperation with him. “Support of the Maoist Centre too puts him in a better position,” Gautam told the Post. “The chances of the Congress winning the seat would have been higher had the party picked Bhesh Raj Acharya over Khadka.”

Gagan Thapa, a Congress general secretary, and the party’s senior leader Shekhar Koirala had batted for Acharya but the party president, Sher Bahadur Deuba, didn’t agree. Khadka is a Deuba confidant in the district.

Based on the votes received by the parties in the proportional representation category of the last election, the UML is strongest, followed by the Congress and the Maoist Centre in the constituency. While the UML got 26,562 votes, the Congress and the Maoist Centre bagged 22,333 and 5,153 votes respectively. The RSP received 4,686 votes to hold the fourth-largest position. The Unified Socialist got a mere 586. Various identity-based parties including the Rastriya Janamukti and Sanghiya Loktantrik Manch too had significant vote shares in Ilam.

Complaints can be lodged on Sunday against candidates if they are ineligible to contest the poll on legal grounds.

“The commission, after a study, will publish the final list of candidates on Tuesday,” said Ram Datta Pandey, assistant spokesman for the commission. “Election symbols will also be distributed the same day.”