With the final results of by-elections in Tanahun-1 and the initial vote count in Chitwan-2 and Bara-2, the message is clear to the traditional forces and parties—either you change your work approach or suffer further losses in coming elections.

The largest party Nepali Congress, whose candidate Ramchandra Poudel, was elected from Tanahun-1 with a good margin last November, lost the seat to the new Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) by a considerable margin.

By-elections were held on Sunday in three constituencies—Tanahun-1, Bara-2 and Chitwan-2—after two lawmakers—Poudel and Ramsahay Prasad Yadav—were elected the country’s President and Vice-president and the third—Rabi Lamichhane of the RSP—lost his lawmaker status owing to legal flaws in his citizenship.

Swarnim Wagle of the RSP got elected from Tanahun-1 while Lammichane, the chief of the party, is ahead of the Congress and CPN-UML candidates in Chitwan-2. Similarly, in Bara-2, Janata Samajbadi Party chief Upendra Yadav is neck to neck with Janamat Party candidate Shiva Chandra Kushawaha.

Despite the backing of other ruling parties, the defeat of Congress candidate Govinda Bhattarai in Tanahun-1 to RSP’s Wagle has sent a chilling message across the Congress rank and file. While the Congress candidate’s defeat was almost certain in Tanahun-1, party chief Sher Bahadur Deuba on Monday said that people had stopped trusting big parties.

“Preliminary results of the by-elections show that the party faces a challenge,” Deuba said speaking at the party’s parliamentary committee meeting.

Another party leader Ram Hari Khatiwada, who is also a lawmaker, on Monday said Congress has reached a ‘critical’ situation in light of the emerging results in Tanahun-1.

“We should review the challenges and send a message of unity in the party,” a Congress leader quoted Deuba as saying at the meeting. “It seems he was shocked by the election result, which he had not expected,” the leader said.

The Congress leader told the Post that party leaders were unable to formulate a clear election strategy and focus their efforts on helping their candidates in Tanahun and Chitwan.

“Lack of dedication of our leaders to actively seek support for the party’s candidate coupled with non-cooperation is responsible for the party’s poor showing in Tanahun,” the leader said.

Congress and the UML were not expecting to win Chitwan-2 since Lamichhane had won with a landslide in November, but Congress was hoping to retain Tanahun-1.

“It seems people are looking for politicians to deliver on electoral promises overnight,” Gokul Baskota, a UML leader who campaigned for the party in Chitwan, said. “People want change, yet they are unwilling to contribute to make it happen and this has led to unnecessary frustration.”

But Baskota agrees that the big and traditional parties need to modify their modus operandi and feel the pulse of society.

“As an increasing number of people are joining new media and social media, traditional parties should familiarise themselves with the emerging trends and currents in society. Even the traditional voter base needs to be by new ideas and tactics,” said Baskota.

Some political observers said the traditional parties face an existential crisis.

In the local elections, people living in the cities, youths, professionals and those living abroad had already warned Congress and the UML, but they did not heed that, political analyst Geja Sharma wrote on Twitter.

“Also in the general elections, people had given a clear message, but they did not correct themselves. And the people have given a final warning through the by-elections. Now the parties should either correct themselves or be finished,” Wagle wrote.

RSP leaders concur.

Wagle, who was all set to be elected from Tanahun-1, said on Monday evening that the votes he received are a sign of public dissatisfaction with old parties and leadership.

“What has transpired in Tanahun can be attributed to the public dissatisfaction with old parties and leadership as well as the aspirations of the younger generation,” he said.

He said he would make sincere efforts to fulfil the promises made to the voters.

According to some analysts, the new parties including the RSP should be viewed with caution. They say there is no certainty that they will not repeat the mistakes of the old ones.

“After winning the elections, will the RSP try to join the government of Pushpa Kamal Dahal?” Shri Krishna Anirudh Gautam, a political analyst said, adding, “if they once again occupy the positions of home and finance ministers, it would defeat the purpose of their forming a new party.”

If the traditional parties fail to ensure political stability and good governance, then they will face more problems, he said. “It was wrong for the Congress to ask its supporters to vote for the Maoist Centre and other parties in the name of a coalition.”

So what, he added, “if Congress supporters this time voted for RSP candidates?” 

The story has been updated in the online version as per final results of Tanahun-1.