Home Minister Bal Krishna Khand has claimed that the ruling alliance will win 131 seats under the first-past-the-post elections.

“Out of the 165 seats under the category, it is almost certain that the ruling alliance will win 131,” Khand said, speaking at a function in Butwal on Saturday.

Citing some reports prepared with the help of state agencies, Khand claimed that the candidates of the ruling alliance will have fierce competitions in 23 constituencies.

A senior security official, who is closely monitoring the election landscape, however, said that Khand’s claim was intended to turn the pre-election atmosphere to the alliance’s favour.

Agencies like Nepal Army, Armed Police Force and the National Intelligence Department are conducting their own surveys on the elections, while they also have received such instructions from top administrators.

Ganesh Adhikari, a former chief of the Intelligence Department, said all that the security agencies do normally is conduct surveys for their own consumption. But the intelligence department does submit its report to the prime minister or the person delegated by him. The Nepal Army does not give its report to anyone, said Adhikari. “These reports are prepared to make political leaders happy.”

Earlier too, Khand had shared intelligence reports to justify the electoral alliance of his party Nepali Congress with the CPN (Maoist Centre), the CPN (Unified Socialist) and the Rastriya Janamorcha against the CPN-UML, which has also partnered regionally with some forces for the November 20 elections.

Khand claimed that the UML is ahead in only 21 constituencies. “The secret survey and projection have shown that the coalition will be victorious in 131 areas,” he said. “The alliance has emerged as a competitor in 23 more constituencies.”

On the contrary, former prime minister and UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli has claimed that the Nepali Congress would only win 30–32 seats.

“Out of 165, Congress is only contesting 87 seats, so the party will not secure the majority,” Oli said, addressing a rally in Dhangadi on Saturday. “The UML will get the majority in the elections.”

Oli did not project the number of seats the UML would win. UML’s deputy general secretary, Bishnu Rimal, told the Post on Friday that his party would win 150 seats combined in both categories—first-past-the-post and proportional representation.

In the first week of October, a projection by some security agencies had claimed that the ruling alliance would win as many as 125 first-past-the-post seats. However, a security official who has observed the scenario said that the prospects of the ruling alliance were now diminishing.

The security official said that this time too, the National Intelligence Department, Nepal Police, and district administration offices have prepared their own assessments of the electoral outcome. They have submitted the reports to Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, Home Minister Khand and some top leaders of the governing parties.

Another poll prediction, which was prepared jointly by some security agencies and independent researchers and obtained by the Post last week, suggested that the ruling alliance will win 105 first-past-the-post seats.

Going by that, the Congress is likely to get 60 seats, the UML 44, the Maoists 26 and the Unified Socialist may possibly win 11 seats. The Janata Samajbadi Party, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, and independent candidates are projected to win 7, 5, 5 and 2 seats, respectively. Five other forces will secure one seat each, the report predicts.

Another projection by a security agency whose synopsis was obtained by the Post stated that the Nepali Congress is likely to win 65 seats, followed by UML (38), Maoist Centre (35), Unified Socialist (10), JSP (7), LSP (4), and Rastriya Prajatantra Party (3), while six seats could go to others.

One Home Ministry official told the Post that they have received several reports prepared by various agencies and even the district administrative offices that predict 60–65 seats for Nepali Congress, 45–55 for UML, 25 for the Maoist Centre and 10 seats for the Unified Socialist.

Adhikari said the Armed Police Force does not carry out its survey as vigorously as other security agencies. “Though conducting political surveys is not part of the security agencies’ job, they do internal assessments anyway to please ruling politicians,” Adhikari said. “The intelligence department reports to the prime minister, while the Nepal Police gives it to the Home ministry.”