Arrivals from the United States have overtaken those from India to become Nepal’s largest source of foreign tourists for the first time, as a sharp decline in Indian visitors amid the fallout from the August floods reshaped the country’s tourism market in October.

Nepal received 17,437 American tourists in October, a 31.24 percent increase from the same month last year, according to data released by the Nepal Tourism Board, the country’s tourism promotion agency. The number more than doubled from September, when 8,299 Americans visited Nepal.

India, traditionally Nepal’s largest tourism source market, slipped to second place. The country received 12,097 Indian visitors in October, down 30 percent from the same month last year. The number was also significantly lower than September’s 17,425.

China ranked third, with 11,695 visitors in October, a 73 percent increase from the same month last year. In September, Nepal received 11,212 Chinese tourists.

The shift comes despite the devastating August 26 floods in the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli river systems, which generated negative international publicity and triggered a wave of cancellations across Nepal’s hospitality industry.

Nepal received 132,814 foreign tourists in October, a 3.4 percent increase from the same month last year. The recovery followed a sharp decline in September, when the disaster’s immediate aftermath disrupted travel plans and prompted cancellations. In August, Nepal had received 88,248 foreign visitors.

“This is the first time in history that arrivals from the US have topped Nepal’s tourism source markets, and it is encouraging news for the industry,” said Mani Raj Lamichhane, director at the Nepal Tourism Board. “The arrivals from the US to take the top spot is mainly due to the decline in Indian tourists.”

The floods and landslides have also had a devastating human toll, with hundreds of foreign nationals among those reported missing. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, 636 foreigners have been reported missing, most of them non-resident Indians travelling to Tibet for the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage through Nepal.

The disaster has so far claimed 1,451 lives, while 5,745 people remain missing.

Despite the scale of the devastation and the circulation of distressing images and videos, American travellers appear to have remained largely undeterred.

Ganga Bahadur Thapa, managing director of Nepal Hiking Team, which primarily caters to American travellers, said the company had not received a single cancellation following the disaster. A few clients postponed their trips, but most continued with their plans.

“In fact, we didn’t receive a single cancellation. Only a few postponed their trips,” said Thapa, whose company handles more than 1,200 American travellers annually.

According to Thapa, American tourists tend to assess ground realities before making travel decisions rather than relying solely on headlines and travel advisories.

“The August 26 disaster affected the popular Langtang trekking region, but other areas were safe, and they knew that,” he said.

Tour operators say Nepal has also been attracting younger American travellers interested in adventure activities, including trekking and mountaineering.

When the disaster struck, Thapa’s company offered clients who had booked Langtang treks alternative itineraries, including the Annapurna Circuit and Everest Base Camp routes, without increasing the cost.

“When the disaster struck, we gave our clients who had booked Langtang treks several options, such as the Annapurna Circuit and Everest Base Camp treks, without inflating the costs, and they were convinced. That is why we did not receive a single cancellation,” he said.

Pawan Tuladhar, founder and owner of Dharma Adventures, another tour operator popular among American travellers, said the US had long been a reliable market for Nepal, despite limited promotional activities targeting American tourists.

“The American market has always been reliable for Nepal. They are a high-end segment and have been growing consistently over the past years,” he said.

Tuladhar said the expansion of American hotel chains in Nepal had also helped build confidence among travellers by providing familiar accommodation options and international service standards.

“The rise in American tourists, who are among the highest spenders in the world, is definitely good news for Nepal’s tourism industry,” he said.

Some operators also attribute part of the increase to the growing Nepali diaspora in the United States. Nepalis holding American passports increasingly visit their homeland, particularly during major festivals such as Dashain and Tihar.

But tourism entrepreneurs say the main reason Americans emerged as Nepal’s largest source market in October was not simply the growth in US arrivals. It was also the sharp contraction in Indian travel following the August disaster.

Bimal Naharki, president of the Association of Kailash Tour Operators Nepal, said more than 5,000 Indian pilgrims had cancelled their Kailash Mansarovar trips scheduled for September after the floods.

“As roads collapsed and transportation was disrupted, it affected Indian tourists’ travel plans for October as well,” he said.

The Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage is a lucrative business for Nepali tour operators, generating substantial economic activity across the tourism, aviation and hospitality sectors.

Nepali operators routinely handle tens of thousands of Indian and non-resident Indian pilgrims each season, with quotas and travel arrangements often involving 24,000 to 25,000 visitors. The pilgrimage supports hotels, restaurants and guest houses in gateway cities such as Nepalgunj and mountain hubs such as Simkot in Humla. It also provides work for local guides, porters and drivers.

The Nepal route, through overland crossings such as Kerung or flights and helicopter transfers via Simkot and Hilsa, is considered one of the more accessible and cost-effective ways to reach Tibet.

The disruption of these routes has therefore affected more than pilgrimage operators. It has also hit businesses across the wider tourism supply chain.

Tour operators say Indian travellers tend to be particularly sensitive to safety concerns and disruptions to transport infrastructure. Many travel in large family groups or on religious pilgrimages, making reliable road access, group accommodation, vegetarian food and other family-friendly services important considerations.

Unlike some independent travellers who may be willing to change destinations or itineraries at short notice, organised pilgrimage groups often depend on fixed schedules and coordinated transport arrangements. Operators say it could take months for Indian arrivals to recover as travellers wait for reassurance that Nepal’s roads and tourism destinations are safe.

The latest decline is a setback for an industry that had begun to see a strong recovery in its largest traditional source market.

In 2023, following the Covid pandemic, Nepal received 319,936 Indian tourists through air routes, the highest annual figure on record. But a series of natural disasters and other disruptions in 2024 caused Indian arrivals to decline for several consecutive months.

After months of fluctuations caused by political tensions, natural disasters, air crashes and rising airfares, Indian tourists had begun returning in record numbers, raising hopes of a sustained recovery.

In May this year, Nepal received 40,782 Indian visitors by air, the highest monthly number ever recorded, according to the Nepal Tourism Board. The figure represented a 32.66 percent increase from the same month last year and signalled a strong turnaround in Nepal’s biggest tourism source market.

But the August 26 floods once again disrupted that recovery.