For decades, the spring season (March to May) has been one of the two peak tourist seasons in Nepal, drawing in hundreds of thousands of tourists, some of whom seek to capitalise on the only time suitable for Everest ascent. This year, however, the hallways of star hotels have gone silent, and the trekking trails of the Himalayas have few tourists. All due to the externality of the conflict in West Asia. With tourist numbers crumbling, bookings tumbling and last-minute mass cancellations, the current havoc in Nepali tourism is a searing indictment of a strategy dangerously over-dependent on a single transit corridor.

The escalating tensions in West Asia have sent shockwaves across the globe, but in Nepal, the impact is visceral. The current crisis must serve as a wake-up call for our policymakers and industry leaders. Nepal cannot continue to leave the fate of this vital sector to the whims of global geopolitical instability. The information shared by hoteliers paints a grim picture of structural fragility. In one hotel in Pokhara, Nepal’s tourism capital, occupancy has plummeted to 50 percent from the 80 percent seen in previous spring seasons. In Lumbini, some hotels report that up to 60 percent of foreign bookings have been wiped out. Nepal is no longer looking at a ‘market correction’ but a sector in freefall, reminiscent of the dark days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The immediate cause is clear: Nepal’s reliance on West Asian transit hubs has become a strategic liability. As flight disruptions and soaring airfares make travel through these corridors uncertain and expensive, travellers from the West—the traditional ‘high-spenders’—are simply staying away. Nepal has allowed itself to be hostage to a single geographical gateway. Furthermore, the industry is being squeezed from within. While international arrivals dwindle, the domestic and regional markets—which are currently keeping the sector afloat—are being hit by rising fuel prices. In Bardiya, the cost of a one-day jeep safari has jumped from Rs12,500 to Rs18,500. In Karnali, the once-busy roads to Rara Lake are empty as tourists can no longer afford the journey. It is economically suicidal to hike prices for domestic tourists at the exact moment they have become the sector’s lifeline.

To prevent a total collapse and build long-term resilience, aggressive diversification of air connectivity is no longer optional. The government must fast-track negotiations for direct flights from non-conflict zones. Nepal needs to look to Southeast Asia, Central Asia and direct European links that do not require transiting through the current conflict zone. Second, we must pivot our marketing strategy to Asia. While Western bookings tumble, Indian and Chinese arrivals are showing growth. Nepal must double down on religious travellers, offering them seamless border crossings and competitive packages that divert them from other international destinations. Third, the government must intervene in the cost of internal travel. This requires temporary fuel subsidies for registered tourism transport and a cap on safari and entry fees during crisis periods.

With much of the economy in shambles due to inflation triggered by the conflict in West Asia, tourism could have been a respite for the national economy. This peak season could have been a time of prosperity. Instead, we are grasping at straws. Nepal must build a tourism industry that is diversified, accessible and affordable. Otherwise, we risk betraying thousands of Nepalis whose livelihoods depend on the arrival of the next visitor.