China’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, with the number of deaths outpacing a slight increase in births, and experts cautioning that the trend will accelerate in the coming years.

The National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of people in China dropped by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, compared to 1.409 billion in 2023.

Friday’s data reinforces concerns that the world’s second largest economy will struggle as the number of workers and consumers declines. Rising costs from elderly care and retirement benefits are also likely to create additional strains for already indebted local governments.

China’s total number of births was 9.54 million versus 9.02 million in 2023, the statistics bureau said. The birth rate rose to 6.77 births per 1,000 people in 2024 versus 6.39 per 1,000 people in 2023.

The number of deaths was 10.93 million in 2024 from 11.1 million in 2023.

China’s birth rates have been falling for decades as a result of the one-child policy China implemented from 1980 to 2015 as well as rapid urbanisation.

As in neighbouring Japan and South Korea, large numbers of Chinese people have moved from rural farms to cities, where having children is more expensive.

The high cost of childcare and education as well as job uncertainty and a slowing economy have also discouraged many young Chinese from getting married and starting a family.

Gender discrimination and traditional expectations for women to take care of the home exacerbate the issue, demographers say.

“Much of China’s population decline is rooted in entrenched structural reasons: Without fundamental structural transformations - from enhancing the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination - the trend of population decline cannot be reversed,” said Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan.

A 12.4% rise in marriages in 2023 - many delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic - accounted for the rebound in births in 2024, demographers said, but the number is expected to fall again in 2025.

Marriages are a leading indicator for birth rates in China, where many single women cannot access child-raising benefits.

Authorities unveiled a series of measures in 2024 to boost China’s birth rate.

In December they urged colleges and universities to integrate marriage and “love education” into their curriculums to emphasise positive views on marriage, love, fertility and family.

In November, the state council, or cabinet rallied local governments to direct resources towards fixing China’s population crisis and spread respect for childbearing and marriages “at the right age”.

The number of Chinese women of reproductive age, defined by the United Nations as 15-to-49, is set to drop by more than two-thirds to under 100 million by the end of the century.

The retirement-age population, meanwhile, those aged 60 and over, is expected to increase to more than 400 million by 2035 from around 280 million people currently.

The state-run Chinese Academy of Sciences has said the pension system will run out of funds by 2035.

About 22% of China’s population, or 310.31 million people, were aged 60 or over in 2024, against 296.97 million in 2023, the data showed.

Urbanisation also gathered pace with the number of people living in cities up by 10.83 million to 943.3 million. The rural population, meanwhile, declined to 464.78 million.