This year’s Dashain is most likely to be wet, as the Meteorological Forecasting Division has predicted rainfall in several regions until the day of Vijaya Dashami, which falls this Thursday.

The division, under the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, which issued a special Dashain bulletin on Saturday evening stated that monsoon winds are expected to persist throughout Dashain this year.

“There is a possibility of light to moderate rainfall at some places in the hilly regions of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces and hilly and Tarai regions of Koshi province on October 2,” reads the bulletin. “A few places in Madhesh and Sudurpaschim provinces may also receive light to moderate rainfall.”

Likewise, there is a possibility of light to moderate rainfall at some places in hilly regions of Bagmati and Gandaki province, and in the hilly and Tarai regions of Koshi province on Tuesday, and at some places in Koshi, Bagmati and Gandaki province on Wednesday.

The met office said the influence of the monsoon winds in the country at present is somewhat weak and the withdrawal has not yet started. Based on the present weather analysis, the effect of monsoon winds is expected to persist throughout this year’s Dashain period.

Normally, the monsoon withdraws from Nepal on October 2, although the exact date varies each year.

Last year, the monsoon retreated on October 12.

This year, monsoon clouds entered the country from eastern Nepal on May 29, two weeks before the usual onset date of June 13. So far, 1,256.93 mm [85.8 percent] rainfall has occurred since the start of monsoon.

Data show that the Kathmandu Valley witnessed average monsoon rainfall this year. Dhanusha and Bara of Madhesh province witnessed only around 60 percent of rainfall, the lowest in the country.

Nepal is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to the climate crisis and has witnessed extreme weather events over the past decade and a half. The weather has turned more unusual and destructive in the past couple of years.

Evidence suggests that the maximum temperature in Nepal is rising at a faster rate (0.056 degrees Celsius per year) than the global average of 0.03 degrees Celsius per year.

Experts say extreme weather events—excess rainfall in a short period, continuous rains for several days after the monsoon, dry spells, droughts, below-average precipitation, and above-normal winter temperatures—have become more frequent in recent years.