In a damning indictment of the established political parties, the three-year-old Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is giving them a run for their money.

As votes of the March 5 polls were being counted on Friday, Gagan Thapa, president of the Nepali Congress, the largest party in the dissolved parliament, was trailing RSP’s Amresh Kumar Singh by a wide margin in Sarlahi-4. The margin between RSP’s Balendra Shah, the leading candidate in Jhapa-5, and KP Sharma Oli, the chair of the second biggest party in the old parliament, was wider still.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the coordinator of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP), was the only one from among the top leaders of the old ‘Big Three’ to win, this time from Rukum East-1. Yet it is still telling that the once mighty Maoist chair had to go to the heartland of the Maoist rebellion to secure a seat in parliament. Otherwise it was a blue wave right across the country.

As of this writing, the candidates of the Congress, the UML and the NCP were being trounced, with the RSP on course to win a thumping majority in the 275-strong lower house.

This RSP wave was as evident in the Tarai plains, as in the mountains or in the Kathmandu Valley. Even in the early counting for Proportional Representation seats, the RSP’s vote tally was over three times its nearest competitor, the Nepali Congress.

So what accounts for this RSP electoral tsunami? This is something that has puzzled the political pundits and observers, particularly as it was being predicted that it was impossible for any single party to win absolute majority given Nepal’s mixed electoral system.

At a time when the RSP maintained massive vote leads across the country, Finance Minister Rameshore Khanal wrote on Facebook: “Based on the number of votes counted so far, it appears that the claim that this constitution cannot provide a stable government with a majority will once again be proven wrong.”

Observers believe that besides the Balen Shah factor, whose reputation as a corruption-free Kathmandu mayor, there are some other reasons for the unprecedented trust people have placed on the RSP.

As vote counting continues, the RSP spokesperson Manish Jha wrote on X on Friday: “Our objective is to bring about positive changes in the country, and we still have to work hard for this.”

“We must serve not as leaders, but as facilitators. The people have entrusted us with a mandate and responsibility with great expectations,” writes Jha.

“Our real enemies are corruption, poverty, and bad governance in the country,” said Jha. “Candidates and political parties are only competitors in the democratic process and respecting everyone’s existence, we must stay restrained, generous, and responsible. This is a request to all.”

Among those surprised by the election results is Lok Raj Baral, a professor of political science.

Talking to the Post, Baral termed the election results “unexpected and unprecedented.”

“But parties must accept the results,” Baral said. “The Nepali Congress under the leadership of Gagan Thapa tried best to recover from damage [inflicted by the old party leadership]... but Thapa was unable to do so due to time constraints.”

“The emerging election results are tsunami-like. The mass turn towards the RSP could be because of mounting frustration. People were angry and frustrated with the old parties and the three-party syndicate. The failure of previous governments to deliver basic services to the people, along with Balen’s appeal among the people, has created a wave in favour of the RSP,” said Baral.

But, according to him, such waves are temporary if not backed by performance while in government.

He advised old parties like the Congress, the UML and the NCP to accept the results, have patience and to keep working on strengthening party organization.

The wave that supports the RSP could propel it close to two-thirds majority if current trends hold.

Emerging results indicate that voters have lost trust not only in the Congress, UML, and Maoists but in all old political parties. From the royalist Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) to the Madhesh-based Janamat Party, all have suffered disastrous defeats. The existence of many small parties is now in question.

Nischal Nath Pandey, the director of the Centre for South Asian Studies (CSAS), offers some similar reasons to Baral’s for the massive RSP wave.

“Young voters were fed up with the misrule and constant wrangling of the old three parties [Congress, UML and NCP] and wanted change,” said Pandey. “Besides, all three parties were led by older men who had lost touch with the electorate, especially Gen Z voters.”

“Voters want to see visible improvements in development and governance with fresh ideas, de-politicisation of vital institutions, and leaders who value merit and qualifications rather than simply ramming all government bodies with party cadres,” said Pandey.

It now seems almost certain that a massive public mandate will go in favor of the RSP, senior advocate Bhimarjun Acharya said.

“What the country and the voters will receive now will depend largely on the conduct of the concerned party [RSP] itself. There is a need for an overhaul of all institutions and structures of the state. Safeguarding sovereignty is currently the most vital priority of the new government,” he said.

In the first general election in 1959, the two-thirds mandate received by a party eventually became a reason for the end of the very democratic system, Acharya recalled, “That should not be allowed to happen again.”

“The main reason behind the decline of the Congress, UML, and former Maoists was their arrogance and their inability to respect differing opinions. During their rule, people outside their circle were not even considered citizens. How the new forces learn from this lesson will determine their future. Unfortunately, some old tendencies are already visible,” Acharya said.

In the past 35 years Nepal’s mainstream political parties have not only captured the political sphere but have also exploited the social, and economic spheres in their favour, which Nepali voters did not appreciate, political expert CD Bhatta, who heads the Nepal chapter of a Germany-based think tank, told the Post.

“Likewise, there has been no circulation of elites in politics and the same lot of people were recycled. As important is that they [parties] have created limited access order wherein only those close to the political parties or political class would get opportunities while the rest were left in the lurch. This not only blocked opportunities but also undermined entrepreneurship of the younger generation.”

This time, struggle in Nepali politics centered on a contest between those who wanted change and those who wanted status quo, Bhatta elaborated.

“The old forces didn’t see the undercurrents that allowed alternative politics to flourish. Today, Nepali politics has reached a point where mainstream political forces have become marginal while those in the margins earlier have become mainstream.”

Although new political forces like RSP do not have any specific agendas that can truly bring positive changes to people’s lives, Nepali voters were frustrated to the extent that they wanted to punish the old political parties for the political and economic mess they created, he added.