The current political equation is experiencing turbulence from the provincial to central level, and managing dissatisfaction within ruling parties has become a Herculean task for Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal and KP Sharma Oli, the UML chair and key architect of the ruling coalition.

After Madhav Kumar Nepal, the chair of the coalition member CPN (Unified Socialist), joined a meeting of opposition parties on Wednesday called by the main opposition Nepali Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba, it sent shockwaves through the ruling coalition. This prompted Dahal and Oli to meet Nepal on Friday to discuss the matter.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Dahal called on Jhala Nath Khanal, another senior leader of Unified Socialist, and discussed the possibility of the Nepal faction lending support to the main opposition in pursuit of a more advantageous deal.

But, according to Khanal, he assured the prime minister that his party would remain within the present ruling alliance and had no intention of quitting the government. The Unified Socialist has two ministers in the federal Cabinet and the party played a crucial role in forming governments in Sudurpaschim and Koshi provinces as well now both Dahal and Oli are looking for similar kinds of support from the party to form a new government in the Madhesh province.

But Nepal’s party has its own grievances.

“The UML is not cooperating with our chief minister in Sudurpaschim,” said Jagannath Khatiwada, spokesperson of the Unified Socialist. “And, they have not bothered to ask us for our ministerial nominees for the new Koshi Cabinet.”

Dirgha Sodari of Unified Socialist is the chief minister of Sudurpaschim, but the UML has not provided him its list of ministerial candidates. While in the Koshi province, Chief Minister Hikmat Karki has not reached out to the UML for the Unified Socialist for ministerial nominations, according to party sources.

On Wednesday, opposition parties sought support from Nepal to ensure the continuity of the sitting chief minister Saroj Yadav of the Janata Samajbadi Party in Madhesh Province.

“Both Dahal and Oli feared that we might extend support to Yadav,” Khatiwada said.

Khatiwada expressed dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition saying, “Although we are in the federal coalition, we are not consulted before taking any decision.”

During a meeting of the party’s parliamentary committee on Friday, the prime minister claimed that Nepal had consulted him before attending the meeting with opposition parties.

“Nepalji is very much with us, and there is no chance of any change in the coalition,” Dahal said at the meeting.

However, UML has taken serious objection to Nepal’s participation in the meeting of the opposition parties.

The UML’s concern seems valid as Nepal in recent weeks has been publicly airing his dissatisfaction against the government and the coalition over “continued neglect” of his party by the ruling coalition leaders.

According to a leader of the Maoist Centre, Oli expressed his reservations over Nepal’s participation in the meeting of the opposition parties.

“It does not look good,” Oli said to Nepal during their meeting on Friday, according to a UML source. “While you are part of the government, you are also participating in opposition party meetings. This is objectionable.”

Opposition parties are waiting for the Supreme Court’s verdict regarding the split of Upendra Yadav’s Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal. The party was part of the government, but after the division, a faction led by Ashok Rai is the government and the other faction led by Upendra Yadav is not. Yadav challenged the legality of the split in the court.

During the Maoist Centre’s parliamentary party meeting on Friday, Nepal’s participation in the opposition parties' meeting was one of the topics of discussion, and some lawmakers wanted to hear from the prime minister about Nepal's potential move, according to a Maoist Centre leader.

“Nepalji had informed me before participating in the meeting of the opposition parties. Do not have doubts about the stability of the government, it is very much intact. He did not attend the meeting to join the opposition alliance,” Dahal said in the party’s meeting, although his remarks raised concerns about the future of the current ruling alliance.

Recently, the prime minister secured a vote of confidence with comfortable support. Despite this, he felt the need to reassure his party leaders that the government remains stable and no one is going to unseat him anytime soon.

Barely hours after making this claim, Dahal, joined by Oli held a meeting with Nepal at the prime minister’s office and sought his assurance in forming a new government in the Madhesh province.

But the Unified Socialist has yet to take a formal decision on whether to support the opposition’s candidate, current chief minister Yadav, or the federal coalition’s candidate from CK Raut’s Janamat Party. Raut’s party is eying the post with support from CPN-UML and the Maoist Centre.

“It’s all about give-and-take and bargaining,” said Khatiwada, adding, “If we get credible assurances from the prime minister and Oli that they will provide full support and cooperation at both the centre and provinces, then we will support the process of forming the new government in Madhesh province.”