The elections to the 16th Lok Sabha in India began yesterday, on April 7. A heated, acrimonious campaign is in full swing with the two national parties—the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—both trying to pull voters in their favour. Other regional parties that are likely to offset the balance, or even may get a chance to head a government, are apparently playing their cards close to their chest so as to keep the two national parties guessing about their likely favour or disfavor in the post-poll scenario.

Not quite national

By all reckoning, the 2014 election seems to be quite challenging to both the INC and BJP, despite indication from media surveys that the latter is far ahead of the former in some northern and western states. However, the Indian general elections defy such predictions, given the different layers of voters whose likes and dislikes are determined by their own perception and understanding of interests that each party is supposed to look after. If previous elections are to be any guide, different types of waves created during elections will not necessarily lead to any substantial impact on the pattern of the people's votes. It has been rightly pointed out that, “the impact of national sentiment on vote- and seat-share has declined significantly over the last four decades as voting preferences get more local and state-specific.” This analysis shows that India's national elections may not be national in its true sense but merely a series of state elections held simultaneously to elect a central government.   

The issues raised by the BJP and the new Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are more or less common, ie, rampant corruption and misgovernance during the two terms of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress, with the latter trying to nail down the Narendra Modi-led BJP as the incarnation of livid communalism which threatens the cherished principle of secularism and social harmony. Defensive as it is, the Congress seems to have faced a lot of accusations, such as the lack of leadership for prime minister, the incumbency factor, charges of corruption and a much centralised leadership with a mother-and-son tightening their grip on organisation. Modi has been projected as the model of development in Gujarat, which can be replicated in other parts of India if Modi wins the election. Modi's detractors, both in his own party and in opposition camps, see the rising trend of a personality cult within the BJP even as the opponents of the Congress accuse it as the party of a mother-and-son at whose beck-and-call the prime minister, ministers and other functionaries of the party work. Modi's meteoric rise as a phenomenon has been able to sideline many stalwarts like LK Advani, Jaswant Singh and Murli Manohar Joshi or even Sushma Swaraj, parliamentary leader in the dissolved Lok Sabha.

The initial Modi wave has somewhat slackened in recent days with counter questions being raised about the so-called Gujarat model. Statistics presented so far have not contributed substantially to transform the living conditions of ordinary people. On the contrary, as the arguments go, whatever economic development has taken place has in fact gone in favour of the upper middle class or has proved beneficial to a few limited industrialists. In the growth hierarchy, Gujarat figures in sixth place, with states like Bihar ahead in terms of inclusive growth.

Regional strongholds

In democratic elections, organisation, leadership and doctrine matter a lot but all these components are being worn out with personal and parochial factors becoming more prominent. Organisationally, parties are weak due to declining trends of deinstitutionalisation. Candidates are imposed from above without taking into account the opinion of lower-level units. Each party has now turned into a personality party, making other leaders subservient to one leader. It is not only the national parties, regional parties that have shown stability for quite some time have also shown similar trends. No one can challenge Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalitha, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati or Patnaik. Ideologically, all parties are fed by rhetoric, although the Congress, the 'Left' parties and some other regional parties swear by secularism, social justice and minority rights. However, in essence, all are guided by tactical opportunism or a marriage of convenience.

One of the biggest advantages of regional parties is that they have been able to endure while proving their potential for stability in their states as well as at the centre. The clout of regional parties has thus increased after the phase of coalition politics began in the late 1960s. The emergence of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Telegu Desham Party (TDP), ADMK, Biju Janata Dal, Trinamool Congress, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) as more or less stable regional parties has provided strength at the states and at the centre. Since India is likely to be governed by alliances formed as a result of the failure of a single national party to get an absolute majority, the role of regional parties to run the country at various levels will determine the future of democracy itself.

Fractured mandate

While analysing the impact of the fractured mandate to be given to parties, its negative aspects cannot be ignored. How the central government becomes a hostage to regional parties has been demonstrated in the past. The role of regional parties in determining national policies and the functioning of the government at the centre has already become crucial. Mamata Banerjee's rejection of the centre's move to reach a Teesta river agreement with Bangladesh or Tamil Nadu's reaction to the Sri Lankan issue pertaining to Tamils are some examples that show the centre alone cannot take any independent decision in case the state governments are opposed to it.

The stability issue is also linked to the interests of regional parties. It is strange that both the SP and BSP, two diametrically opposite parties in Uttar Pradesh politics, have lent support to the UPA government for their own respective calculations and compulsions. Nevertheless, such trends point to rising perversions in India's parliamentary process. The support extended to the minority government from outside makes politics more volatile due to the irrational behaviour of leaders, which they often show.

The entry of the AAP into national politics is another interesting development. The initial response to it came primarily from urban elites whose support catapulted it onto the centre-stage of Delhi politics. As a result, and with the help of the Congress, it prevented the BJP from coming to power. But how far the AAP will go to play a similar role in the parliamentary elections can only be speculated.

Baral is the author most recently of 'Nepal—Nation-State in the Wilderness: Managing State, Democracy and Geopolitics'