The formation of a new four-party coalition in Kathmandu has sent ripples across the country. The changed equation at Singha Durbar has had the fate of the provincial governments, mainly those led by former ruling partner Nepali Congress, hanging in the balance.

Currently, the Congress leads the provincial executives in Koshi, Gandaki, Lumbini and Sudurpaschim provinces while the CPN (Maoist Centre) is at the helm in Bagmati and Karnali provinces.

Likewise, the coalition government in Madhesh is led by the Janata Samajbadi Party. The provincial executives in Koshi, Gandaki, Lumbini and Sudurpaschim are in crisis with the changed political equation.

Amid this, on Tuesday, Gandaki Chief Minister Surendra Raj Pandey sacked two Maoist Centre ministers—Minister for Physical Infrastructure and Transport Resham Bahadur Jugjali and Social Development and Health Minister Sushila Simkhada.

Jugjali said that Chief Minister Pandey called him on the phone to inform that he would reshuffle the Cabinet.

Congress provincial assembly leader Pandey was appointed the chief minister of Gandaki in April 2023. In the 60-strong assembly in Gandaki, the Congress has 27 members, UML has 22, the Maoist Centre has seven (except Speaker Krishna Dhital) and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party has two members. The assembly also has an independently elected candidate.

Over in Sudurpaschim Province, Chief Minister Kamal Bahadur Shah sacked three ministers representing the Maoist Centre. The chief minister removed Social Development Minister Jhapat Saud, Minister for Industry, Tourism, Forest and Environment Ramesh Dhami and state minister of the same ministry Gita Mal from their seats. The ministers representing the Nagarik Unmukti Party and CPN (Unified Socialist) are still in the government.

Nepali Congress provincial assembly leader Shah was appointed Sudurpaschim chief minister in February last year. In the 53-member assembly, the Congress has 19 members, the Unified Socialist three, and there is one independent lawmaker, while the CPN-UML has nine, the Maoist Centre 10, the Nagarik Unmukti Party seven, and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party one lawmaker.

In Karnali Province, three ministers representing the Congress resigned from their posts on Tuesday. The Congress also withdrew its support to the provincial government. Maoist Centre leader Raj Kumar Sharma is the chief minister of the country’s largest province.

Nepali Congress ministers Khadga Bahadur Pokharel, Krishna Kumar BC and Bedraj Singh tendered their resignation to the chief minister. They had joined the government 10 months ago.

Maoist Centre provincial assembly leader Sharma was appointed Karnali chief minister in January last year. The Congress has 14 provincial assembly members, Maoist Centre 13, UML 10, and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party and the CPN (Unified Socialist) one each, while there is one independent member in the 40-member Karnali assembly.

On Monday, the UML, the Maoist Centre, the Rastriya Swatantra Party and the Janata Samajwadi Party struck an eight-point deal. The coalition agreed to elect a Maoist candidate to the post of National Assembly chair which has remained vacant since Sunday. The coalition partners have also decided to help elect a UML candidate as vice-chair of the upper house.

The agreement undersigned by Maoist Centre chair and Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, UML chair KP Sharma Oli, Rastriya Swatantra Party chair Rabi Lamichhane and Janata Samajbadi Party chief Upendra Yadav states that the issue of transitional justice will be settled through consensus.

Nagarik Unmukti Party led by Resham Chaudhary, CK Raut-led Janamat Party and Madhav Kumar Nepal-led CPN (Unified Socialist) and Loktantrik Samajwadi Party are still undecided on their participation in the new coalition. Their inclusion or exclusion in the ruling coalition will decide the fate of the incumbent provincial governments.

In the changed political scenario, uncertainty looms large in the Madhesh government led by Saroj Kumar Yadav. The fate of the coalition government of five political parties—the Janata Samajbadi, the Congress, the Maoist Centre, the Loktantrik Samajbadi and the Unified Socialist—depends on the decision of the Loktantrik Samajbadi and the Unified Socialist parties.

The Loktantrik Samajbadi and the Unified Socialist are still undecided about the new coalition. Without the support of these two parties, the Madhesh government will lose its majority.

The 107-member provincial assembly in Madhesh has 23 lawmakers from the UML, 22 from the Congress, 16 from the Janata Samajbadi, 13 from the Janamat Party, and nine each from the Loktantrik Samajbadi and the Maoist Centre. Likewise, there are seven lawmakers from the Unified Socialist, and one each from Nagark Unmukti, Rastriya Prajatantra and Nepal Sanghiya Samajbadi parties.

Janata Samajbadi provincial assembly leader Saroj Kumar Yadav was appointed chief minister of Madhesh Province in January 2023. The CK Raut-led Janamat Party also supported Yadav and was included in the provincial government. However, the Janamat withdrew its support to the government and recalled its two ministers on January 23, accusing the chief minister of running the provincial government unilaterally.

According to multiple sources, efforts are on to topple the incumbent government in Madhesh and form a new one under the Congress’s leadership. The Congress and Janamat leaders have started their efforts to form another coalition.

“We are trying to get the support of some assembly members who are disgruntled with the chief minister. Janamat Party, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party and Unified Socialist are ready to find alternatives to the present government,” a Congress province assembly member said on condition of anonymity.

Likewise, in Koshi Province, the four-month-old government led by Kedar Karki of the Congress is in crisis. The UML, the Maoist Centre and the JSP together form a clear majority in the 93-member assembly.

The UML has 40 seats while the Congress has 29, the Maoist Centre 13, the Rastriya Prajatantra Party six, the Unified Socialist four while the JSP has a seat in the Koshi provincial assembly.

Rewati Raman Bhandari, chief whip of the UML parliamentary party in Koshi, claims that a new government will soon be formed. “Chief Minister Karki should immediately resign on moral grounds. His government is now in the minority with the change in coalition at the centre,” said Bhandari.

The RPP and the Unified Socialist will play a decisive role in government formation in Bagmati. It will not be easy for the new coalition to form a new government in Bagmati.

The UML and the Maoist Centre have 27 and 21 seats, respectively, in the 110-member Bagmati assembly. They need the support of the RPP and the Unified Socialist to get a majority. The Congress has 37 seats, the RPP has 13 seats, and the Unified Socialist has seven seats in the assembly.

Similarly, the Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party and the Hamro Nepali Party have three and two members, respectively. The Congress can form a new government if it gets the support of the RPP, the Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party and the Hamro Nepali Party.

In Lumbini, both the UML and the Maoist Centre stake their claim for the new Cabinet as the incumbent government led by Congress leader Dilli Bahadur Chaudhary falls in the minority with the changed political equation.

"The UML and the Congress-led the Lumbini government earlier. Now it is our turn," said Sudarshan Baral, chairman of the Maoist Centre province committee.

In the 87-member provincial assembly in Lumbini, the UML has 29 members, the Congress has 27, the Maoist Centre 11, and the RPP and Nagarik Unmukti have four members each. Similarly, the JSP, LSP and Janamat Party have three members each while the Unified Socialist has one and there is one independent member.

(Parbat Portel in Biratnagar, Ajit Tiwari in Janakpur, Subas Bidari in Makwanpur, Pratiksha Kafle in Kaski, Ghanshyam Gautam in Butwal, Krishna Prasad Gautam in Surkhet and Arjun Shah in Dhangadhi contributed reporting.)