For decades, Nepal has been one of the must-visit holiday destinations for Indians. They come to see the mystical mountains, visit the Pashupatinath shrine in Kathmandu and to go to Kailash Manasarovar in China, or to dive into one of the casinos—and for a host of other reasons.

But the number of Indian visitors has been on the decline of late.

According to the Nepal Tourism Board, the country’s tourism promotional body, the number dropped for four consecutive months, worrying the industry, which is still struggling to recover to the pre-Covid level.

However, the number of overall tourist arrivals in 2024 just crossed the one million mark in November, a touch below the tourism board’s projection.

In November, the country’s peak tourist season, the stream of Indian tourists visiting Nepal dropped by 18.5 percent year-on-year to 19,915 individuals.

Overall, in the past 11 months—from January to November—Nepal received 293,000 Indian tourists. In the whole of 2023, Indian arrivals numbered 319,936.

“Based on the current trend, the arrival numbers will not reach last year’s level. Indian arrivals may drop this year,” said Mani Raj Lamichhane, spokesperson for the Nepal Tourism Board.

Officials point out three key factors behind this: the stoppage of Indian entry to Tibet, China, for the Kailash Manasarovar Yatra; a spate of bus and air crashes; and rising airfares.

Beijing has not allowed Indian citizens to enter its territory to visit the holy Kailash Manasarovar, even though it has opened all its borders.

In May, Kathmandu and Beijing jointly declared the reopening of all fourteen traditional border trading points between Nepal and China, allowing the movement of people and trade.

But Beijing has imposed restrictions, especially for Indian pilgrims wanting to enter their territory from Nepal, which many say is the fallout of the growing India-China geopolitical rivalry.

The border was closed for four years due to the pandemic.

The restriction dashed the hopes of thousands of Indians to visit the highly revered pilgrimage site.

“In Nepal, it ruined the multi million-dollar business of scores of hotels, tour operators, porters, and helicopter and airline companies,” said Basu Adhikari, the Touch Kailash Travel and Treks managing director.

Around 60,000 tourists used to visit Kailash-Manasarovar through Nepal, particularly through the Hilsa border, before the Covid pandemic.

The Manasoravor pilgrimage season starts in April and lasts until October. Mid-June to early September is monsoon season in Tibet, but it is the peak season and the most expensive period to travel there.

Though Nepal is not very concerned about Kailash Manasarovar business prospects, India and China have inched closer to resuming direct flights and Kailash Manasarovar pilgrimage.

Mount Kailash and Lake Manasarovar are situated on the Tibetan plateau. These natural landmarks are considered the abode of Lord Shiva and hold great importance for the believers in Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism, and Bon religion.

According to Indian media reports, discussion on this issue was held between Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on November 18 in Rio de Janeiro on the sidelines of the G20 Summit.

The Nepal Association of Tour and Travel Agents, though, has written to Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to take the initiative to discuss this matter in Beijing; insiders say they are sceptical that the issue will be on the agenda.

Prime Minister Oli leaves for Beijing on Monday, leading a delegation of 87 members.

“Kailash Manasarovar Yatra is one of the most lucrative tour packages for Nepali tour operators. The annual pilgrimage season would be a boom time for the tourism industry, and the government would also see increased tax revenue,” said Adhikari.

He said that since the G20 talks are positive, Indian and Nepali tour operators have started taking bookings for the 2025 pilgrimage tour.

India is building a new road, allowing devotees to trek to Kailash Manasarovar from the Indian territory.

“The road is yet to be fully constructed, and it may take years,” said Adhikari. “Even when ready, it will be difficult to navigate. As a result, routes in Nepal will always have an advantage to host Indian pilgrims.”

The Nepalgunj-Simkot-Hilsa-Manasarovar route is the shortest, and the itinerary is affordable and easy. Travellers usually fly from Nepalgunj to Simkot by fixed-wing aircraft and then take a helicopter to Hilsa on the border with Tibet, China.

The hiccups in the pilgrimage tour is not the sole reason that is deterring Indian visitors.

“Safety is becoming a big concern for Indian visitors,” said Lamichhane.

In August, a bus carrying 43 Indian tourists and crew members plunged into a rain-swollen river in the Marsyangdi river, killing 27. Similarly, there has been a spate of air crashes. More than 120 people have been killed in the past three years in air disasters discouraging foreign visitors.

Another factor that is discouraging tourists, including Indians, is the airfare.

Airfares have increased nearly fourfold on Southeast Asian routes after the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal moved to close Kathmandu’s Tribhuvan International Airport for 10 hours a day to expand the taxiways. Travel trade entrepreneurs say potential visitors cancelled their trips to Nepal due to expensive airfares.

Flight prices have become prohibitively expensive for travellers to Nepal, which aspires to attract 1.6 million tourists by the year’s end.

Travel agencies say a one-hour and 15-minute Kathmandu-Delhi flight reached Rs80,000 one way in the first week of November, an all-time high rate.

“India is Nepal’s key market. We have to do aggressive marketing to woo them back,” said Lamichhane. “For this, we need to ensure safety and security.”