As the United Nations weather agency warns of extreme weather in the coming months due to El Niño, Bangladesh’s meteorological department forecasts up to 10 heatwaves across the country over the next three months.

But climatologists say Bangladesh may not bear the brunt of the global weather phenomena since it is expected develop towards late summer or in winter.

“I think El Niño could have a moderate impact on Bangladesh’s monsoon in 2026,” said Dr Rashed Chowdhury, eminent climate scientist who teaches at Arizona State University.

The impact of El Niño depends greatly on when it develops and how strong it becomes. Usually, if El Niño forms before or during the start of monsoon, its influence on South Asian rainfall can be significant. But this year, forecasts suggest that it may develop later—toward late summer or even winter. As such, Bangladesh may not experience the more typical effects associated with a strong El Niño, such as severe drought or major monsoon failure as was the case in in 1982-83 or in 1997-98, explained the El Niño researcher from Arizona State.

He said, it is important to remember that climate systems are highly interconnected and complex. El Niño can increase the likelihood of low (below average) rainfall, but it is only one of many factors that shape Bangladesh’s monsoon. Conditions in the Indian Ocean, regional weather patterns, and atmospheric circulation also play important roles, he said.

“There is no reason for panic, but it would be wise to remain prepared and continue monitoring the climate situation in the coming months,” Dr Rashed Chowdhury suggests.

The United Nations weather agency warned on Tuesday of a moderate to potentially strong El Niño in the coming months, which could push up global temperatures and significantly increase the risk of extreme weather events worldwide.

The El Niño is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures across the globe.

Bazlur Rashid, senior meteorologist from Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD) who has been researching heatwaves in Bangladesh, said Bangladesh would witness less rainfall this monsoon and higher temperature as an impact of El Nino.

“But we cannot go into further detail right now, like what would be the temperature like in coming months,” said Bazlur Rashid.

The country would face at least eight to 10 heat waves during the next three months, the met office forecast yesterday in it’s three months long forecast.

Bazlur Rashid said, three to four heatwaves will sweep through the country in June alone.

El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, ​which typically lasts between nine and 12 months, according ​to the World Meteorological Organization.

The WMO said warm ocean waters were driving El Niño’s development and predicted above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August. The WMO said it is likely that El Nino will continue until November.

“We need to be prepared for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, report agencies.

The WMO forecasts El Niño can cause drought ⁠in ​Australia, central America, Indonesia, and sections of southern ​Asia, and lead to the formation of hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

Asked El Niño’s potential impact on Bangladesh, Golam Rabbani, director, Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Research (C3ER) said, “What we can say from past experience is that El Nino would cause heatwave and drought like situation in some parts of the country. But it may also cause torrential rainfall in a short period and lead to sudden flood.”

Beyond immediate weather impacts, experts warn that prolonged dry periods linked to El Niño could have wider consequences for Bangladesh’s water system.

Rajib Kumar Saha, PhD candidate in geology, at the School of Environment in Washington State University in USA, and assistant director of the Geological Survey of Bangladesh said, “We cannot stop the Pacific Ocean from warming, but we can prevent a super El Niño from becoming a catastrophe. A weakened monsoon, prolonged dry periods, intense heatwaves, and reduced flows in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river system are likely to worsen salinity intrusion in the Bengal delta and destabilise our floodplains.”

He suggested that the government identifies water stressed areas and initiates necessary measures before the next dry season.

In association with Asia News Network.