Gaza City and surrounding areas are officially suffering from famine, and it will likely spread, a global hunger monitor determined on Friday, an assessment that will escalate pressure on Israel to allow more aid into the Palestinian enclave.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification system said 514,000 people - nearly a quarter of Palestinians in Gaza - are experiencing famine, with the number due to rise to 641,000 by the end of September.Some 280,000 of those people are in a northern region covering Gaza City - known as Gaza governorate - which the IPC said was in famine following nearly two years of war between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas.

It was the first time the IPC has recorded famine outside of Africa, and the global group predicted that famine conditions would spread to the central and southern areas of Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis by the end of next month.

It added that the situation further north could be even worse than in Gaza City, but said limited data prevented any precise classification.

Israel dismissed the report as false and biased, saying the IPC had based its survey on partial data largely provided by Hamas, which did not take into account a recent influx of food.

“There is no famine in Gaza,” the Israeli foreign ministry said in a statement.

For a region to be classified as in famine at least 20% of people must be suffering extreme food shortages, with one in three children acutely malnourished and two people out of every 10,000 dying daily from starvation or malnutrition and disease.

Previously, the IPC has only registered famines in Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan.

Even if a region has not yet been classified as in famine because those thresholds have not been met, the IPC can determine that households there are suffering famine conditions, which it describes as starvation, destitution and death.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a statement that the Gaza famine was a “man-made disaster, a moral indictment, and a failure of humanity itself”.

He called for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages still held by Hamas and unfettered humanitarian access.

“People are starving. Children are dying. And those with the duty to act are failing ... We cannot allow this situation to continue with impunity.”

U.N. human rights chief Volker Türk said that famine in Gaza was the direct result of Israeli government actions, and warned that deaths from starvation could amount to a war crime.

The IPC analysis comes after Britain, Canada, Australia and many European states said the humanitarian crisis had reached “unimaginable levels”.

US President Donald Trump last month said many people there were starving, putting him at odds with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has repeatedly said there was no starvation and blamed Hamas for creating food shortages.

ISRAEL CONTROLS GAZA ACCESS

Israel controls all access to Gaza. COGAT, the arm of the Israeli military that oversees aid flows, said the IPC report ignored Israeli data on aid deliveries and was part of an international campaign aimed at denigrating Israel.

“The IPC report is not only biased but also serves Hamas’ propaganda campaign,” the agency said.

The U.N. has long complained of obstacles to getting aid into Gaza and distributing it throughout the war zone, blaming impediments on Israel and lawlessness. Israel has been critical of the U.N.-led operation and accuses Hamas of stealing aid, which the militants deny.

The IPC said the analysis released on Friday only covered people living in Gaza, Deir al-Balah and Khan Younis governorates. It was unable to classify North Gaza governorate due to access restrictions and a lack of data and it excluded any remaining population in the southern Rafah region as it is largely uninhabited.

It is the fifth time in the past 14 years that a famine has been determined by the IPC - an initiative involving 21 aid groups, United Nations agencies and regional organizations that is funded by the European Union, Germany, Britain and Canada.

The IPC has previously assessed that there was famine in areas of Somalia in 2011, South Sudan in 2017 and 2020, and Sudan in 2024. The IPC says it does not declare famine, but instead provides analysis for governments and others to do so.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week found that 65% of Americans believe the US should help those starving in Gaza.

Israel has long counted on the US, its most powerful ally, for military aid and diplomatic support. An erosion of US public support would be a worrisome sign for Israel as it faces not only Hamas militants in Gaza but unresolved conflict with Iran, its regional arch-foe.

The war in Gaza was triggered on October 7, 2023, when Hamas killed 1,200 people in southern Israel and took some 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Since then, Israel’s military campaign has killed more than 62,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities.