When CPN (Maoist Centre) General Secretary Dev Gurung congratulated his electoral rival in Lamjung, Prithvi Subba Gurung of the CPN-UML, upon the latter’s election as federal lawmaker from the district on Friday, he also floated a proposal to jointly lobby for a left alliance.

UML Deputy General Secretary Prithvi Subba Gurung, who beat Maoist General Secretary Gurung, accepted the proposal.

But despite the lobbying by the Gurung duo—both influential leaders in their respective parties—their dream is unlikely to be translated into reality anytime soon, despite pressure from within the Maoist Centre’s rank and file for the same.

Maoist leader Gurung also acknowledges that there is no immediate political reason to break the ruling alliance.

“We all know that even if the coalition partners had contested the elections alone, we could each have garnered as many seats as we have now won, but that cannot be the basis to break the existing coalition,” said Dev Gurung. “Only a change in the country’s political course will lead to the dissolution of the existing coalition.”

Though most Maoist leaders seem to be disappointed by the lack of vote transfer from the Nepali Congress, which they believe cut the Maoist party’s strength to almost half compared to the 2017 polls, party chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal reportedly wants to give continuity to the partnership with the Congress. On Monday as well, Dahal discussed the formation of a new government with the prime minister.

Knowing that it would be difficult for his party to form a new government without the Maoist Centre, UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli had phoned Dahal and proposed talks, fueling speculations whether Oli and Dahal could again join hands to form the next government. Oli’s move also confused the parties in the existing coalition—especially the Congress.

On Monday, UML vice-chairman Bishnu Poudel told reporters in Butwal that his party would take the initiative to form a new government as no party had a majority. “We respect people’s verdict. The nation cannot move ahead and development works cannot gain momentum unless UML takes the lead,” Poudel, who won the polls from Rupandehi-2, said at a press meet organised by Press Chautari Nepal. “The UML will take the initiative to lead the new government.”

A day after the discussion between Oli and Dahal, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba was quick to hold a meeting with Dahal at Baluwatar on Friday, sending a message that both the leaders had agreed to keep the existing coalition intact.

The precedence is that once an alliance is forged for the federal government, the partners will also reach an understanding on government formation in the provinces. The package deal would include agreements with regard to electing the next President, Vice-president, Speaker, Deputy Speaker, National Assembly chair and vice-chair as well as chief ministers.

In 2017, there was a similar package deal between the UML and the Maoist Centre. As per the agreement, UML’s KP Sharma Oli became prime minister and Bidya Devi Bhandari of the same party became President, while the Maoist party’s Nanda Kishor Pun and Krishna Bahadur Mahara were made Vice-president and Speaker, respectively. Likewise, the UML had chief ministers in four provinces and the Maoists had in two. The left alliance thus led the federal and six of the seven provincial governments in 2017. Later the two parties unified to form the Nepal Communist Party, before the NCP again split giving shape to the present coalition under the Congress leadership.

If the present Congress-led alliance wins a majority and the leaders succeed in keeping the alliance intact, a package similar to the one in 2017 may be worked out.

Some Maoist Centre insiders said party chair Dahal could accept a two-year term as prime minister during the second half of the five-year term of the next government, if his party gets the post of Speaker or the President, allowing Deuba to lead the government for the first three years. However, these agreements are yet to be fleshed out.

“Anything is possible in politics, so we cannot rule out the UML and the Maoists joining hands to form a left coalition,” said Subas Nembang, UML vice-chair. “But it could be too early to comment on it as full election results are yet to come out and parties are yet to begin discussions.”

Many senior Maoist leaders were defeated in the November 20 polls and they believe lack of vote transfer from the Congress was to be blamed.

Pampha Bhusal, energy minister and Maoist Centre deputy general secretary, was beaten by Rastriya Swatantra Party’s candidate Dr Toshima Karki in Lalitpur-3. Many believe Karki won as many of the traditional Congress voters plumped for her instead of Bhusal. Other deputy general secretaries of the Maoist party, Girirajmani Pokhrel in Mahottari-1 and Matrika Yadav in Dhanusha-1, leaders Maheswar Raj Gahatraj in Banke-1 and Bishwonath Sah in Siraha-3 also lost the elections.

Leader Onsari Gharti in Kathmandu-2, Manushi Yami Bhattarai in Kathmandu-7, Kalpana Dhamala in Kathmandu-9, Chakrapani Khanal in Kapilvastu-1, and Bina Magar in Kanchanpur-1 were also defeated, even though each of them was considered strong contender from their constituency.

“Had the UML chair not been so selfish, it would have been more natural for us to join hands with a fellow left party,” said former speaker Onsari Gharti. “Our party is yet to evaluate its poll performance and discuss alternatives in coalition-formation.”

Many Maoist leaders the Post talked to argued that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) had won only in those constituencies where Congress candidates were missing. Congress candidates like Gagan Thapa, Pradip Poudel, Prakash Man Singh emerged victorious despite a strong presence of RSP candidates. The Maoist leaders were angry that the Congress voters had backed the candidates of their own party while shunning those of the coalition.

Among 47 candidates of the party, only 17 won. The Maoist leaders now compare this result with the one in 2017 when they won 37 FPTP seats.

“The Maoist Centre leadership is under extreme pressure to correct its course,” said a Central Committee member of the party. “Dissatisfaction has been growing among the rank and file.”

Party leaders and cadres believe that they could have won over 20 FPTP seats (against their current tally of 17) had local party committees been allowed to forge alliance with other parties of their choice.

Haribol Gajurel, another deputy general secretary of the party who was denied ticket on the grounds that he was unpopular in his constituency in Sindhuli, said going into elections, the top leaders—especially Deuba, Oli and Dahal—had no other consideration than how they would get to become becoming prime minister.

“So I won’t rule out a left coalition if that ensures prime ministership for our party chairman [Dahal],” Gajurel added.

Even before the elections, Maoist Centre, Baburam Bhattarai-led Nepal Samajbadi Party (which contested polls with Maoist Centre’s election symbol), and Madhav Nepal-led CPN (Unified Socialist) had been preparing to unite to form a Socialist Centre.

Leaders of the Maoist Centre, including Pampha Bhusal, had told the Post before the polls that the three parties would unite after the conclusion of the elections.

Some observers said the Maoist leaders are in a dilemma as they cannot trust Oli, while at the same time recent voting trend also makes them distrust the Congress.

“Only the Congress seems to have benefitted from the electoral alliance while the Maoist Centre suffered, so its leaders seem to be in a fix,” said Shyam Shrestha, a civil society leader. “Dahal may push for the continuity of the current coalition, but most other leaders in the party are in favour of forging a left coalition.”

However, political analyst Krishna Khanal, in an interview with the Post, said that he doesn’t see the possibility of a durable communist alliance. “The Maoist Centre and the Unified Socialist have split away from a solid communist force,” said Khanal. “I don’t see space for an alignment on the basis of ideologies such as communism. A working alliance is the only option now.”