Gandaki Chief Minister Surendra Raj Pandey is going for a floor test on Monday amid uncertainties about whether he will continue to be in power.

The Nepali Congress parliamentary party leader at the provincial assembly became the chief minister on May 29 for the second time in less than two months following a Supreme Court verdict issued two days earlier.

Pandey had the liberty to take the vote of confidence by the end of this month, but he chose Monday as he wants to bring the budget for the upcoming fiscal year after securing his position.

With 27 members, the Congress is the largest party in the provincial assembly. However, it needs four more to attain the magic number of 31 in the 60-strong assembly. The party is relying on the two Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) members: the independent Rajiv Gurung and Phanindra Devkota, a lawmaker of the Nepal Samajbadi Party who fought the 2022 election using the Maoist Centre’s symbol.

As the RPP is positive about extending its support and Gurung is known for joining hands with any party that makes him a minister, the Congress is putting all its effort into wooing Devkota.

Ashok Kumar Shrestha, a Congress assembly member, said they are confident that the chief minister will win the trust vote. He said the RPP has expressed its readiness to extend support, and Gurung is also positive. "Though Devkota has not given his word, he hinted at supporting us," he told the Post.

Voting would take place after 3 pm.

The RPP provincial assembly members are in Kathmandu to consult the party leadership. "We are ready to vote for the trust motion given that the Congress wins the support of the two provincial assembly members. The chief minister will not lose the trust motion because of our party," Mohan Shrestha, the RPP spokesman, told the Post.

Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba has made a written request to the party to stand for Pandey.

Devkota says he wants stability in the province and doesn't want to see it heading for the snap poll. "Anti-federalism elements are already attacking the provinces for failing to perform. They will find another reason to do so if the province is bound for mid-term elections," he told the Post, adding that he will decide which side to stand for by Monday morning.

Pandey was sworn in on May 29 as per Article 168 (3) of the constitution after the Supreme Court declared the vote of confidence given to Khagaraj Adhikari of the CPN-UML unconstitutional. The top court issued a mandamus order to appoint Pandey, the provincial parliamentary party leader of the Congress, as the new chief minister within 48 hours.

If Pandey fails the floor test, Province Head Dilliraj Bhatta will call for the formation of the government under Article 168 (5) of the constitution. Any assembly member who presents a claim to form the government with the support of the majority of assembly members becomes the chief minister as per the Article. This is the last option for government formation. If that fails too, the province will head for snap polls.

In 2023, Pandey unseated Adhikari, who had formed the government on December 25, 2022. But the changes in the ruling coalition at the centre on March 4 compelled him to resign, making way for Adhikari.

Adhikari became the chief minister presenting the support of 31 members—22 from his party, eight from the CPN (Maoist Centre) and an independent member. The eight members from the Maoist Centre included Speaker Krishna Prasad Dhital.

On April 10, the top court directed the Khagaraj Adhikari-led government to refrain from taking any decisions of lasting consequence until the final verdict.

Dhital declared that Adhikari had won the floor test with the support of just 30 members. This was challenged in the court, which invalidated Adhikari’s Cabinet formation process.

The Congress might have been expecting to retain power with Devkota's support, but it doesn't look easy for him to stand against the Maoist Centre whip. As Devkota was elected using the Maoist Centre’s symbol, he is counted as the party's member in the assembly.

"Devkota has to follow our whip. He will be liable for action if he doesn't abide by it," said a Maoist member of the assembly.

Devkota, however, refutes the claim. "I am a Nepal Samajbadi Party member. I don't need to follow the Maoist Centre's whip," he said.