The Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged into first place in state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, exit polls showed, putting a far-right party within reach of power at the state level for the first time since World War Two.

While short of an overall majority, the AfD won 44% of the vote and delivered a drubbing to Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives, reflecting the deep unpopularity of Germany’s ruling coalition in a fracturing political landscape.

The AfD is already Germany’s most popular party at the national level and is seeking to secure a foothold for advancing its agenda, which includes heavy restrictions on immigration, restoring ties with Russia, cutting support to Ukraine and quitting the euro.

As counting continued, it remained unclear whether the AfD could form a government but the wider political significance was clear for the election, which according to broadcaster ZDF drew a heavy turnout of 77%.

“We have made history in this country,” said Ulrich Siegmund, the 35-year-old AfD lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, who attracted thousands to his campaign rallies and who repeatedly cast victory in the state as a first step towards securing national power in federal elections due in 2029.

A poll from the ARD broadcaster showed 87% of the state’s voters were unhappy with the federal government. Siegmund has described Merz as the AfD’s best campaigner, given his unpopularity in the state.

“This election result is, above all, a vote of no confidence in the federal government,” Marcel Fratzscher, the president of the German Institute for Economic Research, told Reuters.

Merz has vowed to revive Europe’s largest economy with business-friendly reforms and increased spending, while warning that an AfD win in Saxony-Anhalt would damage the state and deter foreign companies from investing there.

Germany’s mainstream parties have all refused to work with the AfD, which has been classified as right-wing extremist by the local office of Germany’s domestic intelligence service.

One outlier is the small Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance party (BSW), which looked set to clear the threshold to enter parliament. The ⁠BSW has floated the idea of rule for Saxony-Anhalt by a non-partisan state premier relying on shifting majorities, including with votes from the AfD.

Siegmund, however, rejected the BSW’s idea as a “mess” and ruled out any arrangements with other parties that would prevent the AfD from delivering on his promise of change. “If push comes to shove, there will simply be new elections,” he said.

Merz’s conservatives said they would explore talks with other parties, although that could require pulling together parties with vastly different policy agendas. In the neighbouring eastern German state of Thuringia, the conservatives run a minority government with passive tolerance from the Left party.

Although Saxony-Anhalt, formerly part of Communist-run East Germany, is one of the smaller German states, with a population of just over 2 million, the result underlines the rapid advance of the AfD since it was created in 2013.

The ⁠AfD is now Germany’s most popular party nationally, polling at 28% according to a recent INSA poll, comfortably ahead of the conservatives on 20%.

Hard line on migration

While hard-right parties have gained ground elsewhere in Europe, Germany’s Nazi past has contributed to a reluctance among mainstream parties to cooperate with the AfD.

The AfD has dismissed accusations of extremism as scaremongering and an insult to the party’s millions of supporters.

During the campaign, the AfD tapped into growing disillusionment with established parties, which it characterises as tired and out of touch, offering instead a range of hardline policies ⁠and a nostalgic vision of a return to cleaner and safer streets and taking pride in being German.

“It is clear that we need change in Germany and in Western Europe. And I believe a starting signal is definitely going out from here - whether you like it or not,” said Antony Lee, an attendee at the AfD’s election party. “I am a father, I am an entrepreneur, and I know that things cannot continue like this in Germany.”

The AfD’s programme includes plans to push schools and cultural institutions ⁠towards what it views as more traditional values, while curbing immigration and overhauling public broadcasting. It wants the children of refugees to be taught in segregated classes.

It has called for rainbow flags in schools to be banned and for the German national flag to be hoisted every day. The national anthem would be sung by students and staff at school celebrations. Other proposals include citizen patrols, more teaching of Russian in schools and a halt to building new wind farms.