Three years ago, the Rastriya Swatantra Party entered Nepali politics with a bang, so to speak.

The party billed itself as a force different from the traditional parties that, it said, were neck deep in corruption, nepotism, and misgovernance.

The party, formed six months before the 2022 general elections, contested the polls on an anti-status quo, anti-corruption plank. The agenda quickly paid off.

Led by Rabi Lamichhane, a former television host known for putting politicians and bureaucrats on the spot, the party achieved remarkable electoral success, becoming the fourth-largest party in Parliament with 20 seats.

The party’s early success also included a victory in the Tanahun by-election held in 2023, extending its strength to 21 seats in the House.

The party joined the government twice—even if only for months—once in coalition with the CPN (Maoist Centre) and then with the CPN-UML. Currently, it is in the opposition, obstructing the House over the visit visa scam.

The party has witnessed several ups and downs within its short journey. As the glow of its success has dimmed, the party has had to confront its position in Nepali politics, and the way forward—its prospects and limitations.

So when the party marked its third establishment anniversary, it did so not in a triumphant mood but a solemn one, amid a leadership void, a cloud of controversy, and waning momentum for its once-popular anti-status quo agenda.

Much of the party’s apparent confusion centres around the party’s founding president Lamichhane, who is currently behind the bars on charges of embezzling millions of rupees the public deposited in cooperatives in five districts—Kathmandu, Kaski, Rupandehi, Chitwan and Parsa.

Lamichhane and his party members accuse traditional political forces of framing him in wrong charges but different courts sent him in judicial custody indicating his involvement in the irregularities. The cases are sub judice in all the five districts.

Observers also find fault with the new party leaders not having patience to stay away from the government and raising public’s concerns from the opposition bench strongly.

They said the RSP didn’t honour the sentiment of the people by joining the government, not once but twice, within two years, and in the leadership of the same leaders whom they railed against in the past.

“The basic tenet of democracy is to fulfil the promise made to the people during the election,” political analyst Shreekrishna Aniruddh Gautam said. “The election had given the RSP the mandate to be the opposition party. But they rushed to join the government twice, making a mockery of their promise to the public.”

The RSP had promised good governance, among other things, but they could not live up to that promise, Gautam added.

Lamichhane is in judicial custody in Rupandehi over allegations of misappropriating funds from the Supreme Cooperative of Butwal. The cooperative scam, in which Lamichhane is a key accused, has seriously dented the party’s pledges in good governance, observers say.

“The controversy about the party chief Lamichhane’s involvement in irregularities has definitely dealt a serious blow to the momentum previously gained by the party,” said Jhalak Subedi, a political analyst.

However, party spokesperson Manish Jha dismissed such claims and claimed that the party’s momentum has not slowed down.

“The questions of misgovernance should have been asked to the ruling coalition leaders rather than to our party,” Jha said. “Our party respects the law of the country, therefore our party leader is in custody, whereas leaders of the ruling coalition, despite questions on their conducts, are not even ready to face it.”

Jha claimed that the case against Lamichhane was motivated by political vendetta. Lamichhane, a former home minister, was targeted, Jha claimed, because he moved forward to investigate the involvement of big party leaders on the Bhutanese refugee scam, the Giri Bandhu land swap scam and the Patanjali land scam.

Before that, the Supreme Court in January 2023 had scrapped Lamichhane’s status as lawmaker, saying that he didn’t have a valid Nepali citizenship. Later, he reacquired Nepali citizenship, fought the election and won the seat with bigger margins.

Despite Jha’s dismissal, Lamichhane’s absence has reduced the party to a rudderless outfit.

The party is being led by Acting President DP Aryal after Lamichhane was sent to jail for judicial custody in April. A planned general convention in April was postponed, illustrating the RSP’s dependence on Lamichhane’s leadership.

Though the party has announced its new general convention for March, its certainty is still under question.

Newly appointed General Secretary Kabindra Burlakoti acknowledges the party’s bumpy path in Nepal’s political landscape.

“The last three years have been a roller coaster for us,” Burlakoti said. “However, we will overcome all the challenges and present ourselves with a better version of ourselves.”

Burlakoti also claimed that the party could not hold its general convention earlier due to unforeseen circumstances. He said the party is resolved to hold the convention on the postponed date.

The Ilam-2 by-election held last year proved to be a turning point in the new party’s political journey.

After earlier successes in the general election of 2022 and the by-election held in 2023, the RSP suffered a surprising defeat, raising questions about its sustained appeal and capacity to operate beyond a protest platform.

Subedi argued that the by-election sent a clear message that the party’s earlier momentum had come to a standstill.

The crisis deepened with the fallout of former general secretary Mukul Dhakal, who had launched a review campaign touring across 32 districts. Before he could present his report, internal conflicts and allegations—including claims that he prematurely shared findings with the media—led to his departure from the party. Dhakal, in turn, accused senior RSP leaders of harbouring personal grudges.

“RSP entered politics to change the system, but it now seems to have become part of the system it vowed to reform,” said Chiranjibi Bhandari, a political commentator who is an assistant professor of conflict, peace and development studies at Tribhuvan University.

Bhandari adds that the RSP appears “directionless” in Lamichhane’s absence, with internal rifts and power struggles increasingly defining its public identity.

Jha refuted that charge.

“If the current leaders of the Nepali Congress can follow Mahatma Gandhi without meeting him, if UML can follow Lenin without meeting him, and if the Maoist Centre can be guided by Mao’s ideology, what is wrong if our party follows its founding leader?” Jha said.

Bhandari also observed that while the RSP lags behind traditional parties in theorising its ideology and institutionalising itself, it is ahead in mobilising the diaspora populations and younger people, especially the Gen Z.

The party’s international outreach remains active, with at least five lawmakers currently abroad for diaspora programmes. Party’s acting chief Aryal was in Qatar a few days ago, Toshima Karki is in the US, Ganesh Parajuli is in Australia, while Hari Dhakal and Sobita Gautam were in India until recently. Vice-President Swarnim Wagle also plays a key role in expanding the party’s diaspora engagement.

Despite its early achievements and appeal, the RSP is currently at a crossroads, with its founding leader embroiled in a legal case, internal cohesion weakening, and ideological clarity lacking.

The coming few months will provide a clearer picture on whether the party, a champion of alternative politics, can evolve into a powerful political force or fade into irrelevance—whether it comes out of the 2027 elections with a bang or a whimper.