Despite the El Niño phenomenon, Nepali farmers are expected to harvest a record 5.72 million tonnes of paddy this fiscal year.

The growth in paddy output may give some respite to the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led administration as the country’s economy struggles with low output and high inflation.

The year-on-year paddy production could grow by about 4.33 percent this fiscal year, reaching a new record, according to a preliminary forecast by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development.

Based on the minimum support price announced by the government, the total value of the paddy amounted to Rs193 billion, excluding its byproducts like straw and husk.

“This is the highest recorded production,” said Sabnam Shivakoti, spokesperson at the ministry. “The paddy output will have a positive impact on the country’s gross domestic product.”

Experts say a good harvest checks inflation and energises the economy.

The record harvest comes on the heels of the projected drought during the monsoon.

In April last year, South Asian meteorologists had said that most of Nepal is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rains or drought-like situations, after three years of normal rainfall.

The climate outlook for the 2023 southwest monsoon season (June to September) finalised during the 25th session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-25) suggested that most of Nepal may receive below-normal rainfall.

Based on the SASCOF-25 consensus, Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology also issued its monsoon forecast stating that in most parts of the country, there is a chance of below-normal rainfall and more likely still, heatwaves.

Based on the report, agriculture scientists had even urged the government to seek an alternative paddy cropping system, mostly in drought-affected areas.

The climate outlook, however, turned in the farmers’ favour.

“Initially, based on the forecast, we [the ministry] too had planned a drought adaptation strategy—reducing risks associated with drought,” said Shivakoti. “First, rains came late in the southern Tarai districts, the country’s food basket, delaying paddy transplantation. However, there was good rainfall later and transplantation recovered, except in a few districts.”

Shivakoti attributed the historic harvest to other factors like a sufficient supply of chemical fertilisers and low pest outbreaks and floods, apart from the rainfall.

Nepal imported chemical fertilisers worth Rs40 billion in the last fiscal year, the highest shipment on record. According to the Customs Department, chemical fertiliser imports amounted to 426,007 tonnes.

Of the total imports, 252,434 tonnes was urea worth Rs 22.95 billion, 129,934 tonnes was di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) worth Rs16.10 billion and the remaining was potash.

Paddy is transplanted across most of Nepal in June and harvested in October-November.

Paddy is Nepal’s biggest earning farm commodity, with tens of thousands of farmers relying on its income. The high output, according to economists, may cool down inflation and pump the economy.

The country has 1.43 million hectares of land suitable for growing paddy. The grain is generally planted twice a year—in June and February. However, spring paddy in February is planted on only 104, 712 hectares.

“As productivity is high during the spring, we can boost production if we focus on spring paddy,” said Shivakoti.

Last year, the monsoon entered Nepal on June 14, a day after the normal onset date but remained inactive for several weeks.

The ministry said the productivity also increased to a record high of 3.98 tonnes a hectare.

However, the area under paddy production dropped by 1.73 percent this fiscal year.

Agriculture expert Rajendra Upreti said a combination of factors boosted output, including a reduction in post-harvest losses due to increased farm mechanisation.

He said that some perennially parched areas like Siraha and Dhanusha, however, were largely affected by the drought.

“Some of the central Tarai districts lack proper irrigation infrastructure and there are not enough tube wells to water the farm.”

“There is a saying that if paddy output rises by 10 percent, it boosts the GDP by 1 percent. Hopefully, increased output will offset the imports of rice from India and control the market price.”

The government has raised the minimum support price for paddy by more than 7.5 percent, to Rs33.65 a kg for the fiscal year 2022-23.

Based on the minimum support price, the total value of the paddy output amounted to Rs193 billion, excluding its byproducts like straw and husk.

Nepal had recorded a record high paddy harvest of 5.62 million tonnes in 2020-21 as it had a surplus of farmhands with hordes of migrant workers returning home amid Covid lockdowns. Adequate fertiliser supplies and a good monsoon helped farmers to produce a bumper harvest.

But paddy output shrank the following year.

In 2021-22, the harvest dropped by 8.74 percent year-on-year to 5.13 million tonnes due to unseasonal October rainfall. The downpours damaged paddy crops worth Rs8.26 billion, the highest losses on record, according to the ministry's report.

Nepal’s economic well-being is intimately tied to the rainy season. Water from the skies is the lifeblood of Nepal's Rs5.38 trillion economy which is farm-dependent, as nearly two-thirds of the farmlands are rain-fed.

According to the ministry, the contribution of paddy to the country’s gross domestic product amounts to 4 percent.

The ministry said that the per capita cereal requirement in Nepal is 181 kg. Of the total requirement, rice should make up 121 kg. But as Nepalis appear to be ardent rice eaters, the per capita rice requirement is 137 kg.

According to the ministry, Koshi province surpassed Madhesh province in terms of paddy production, as some districts in Madhesh province were hit by drought.

Paddy production in Koshi province jumped by 7.45 percent to 1.43 million tonnes, the highest output among all provinces, with productivity averaging 4.43 tonnes per hectare.

Paddy production in Madhesh province dropped to 1.33 million tonnes, down by 3.68 percent year-on-year.

In Lumbini province, output totalled 1.31 million tonnes, followed by Sudurpaschim (599,124 tonnes), Bagmati (504,624 tonnes), Gandaki (391,121 tonnes) and Karnali (145,063 tonnes).

About 90 percent of the world’s rice is grown and consumed in Asia. As a staple food for more than half of the world’s population, it is one of the most important crops sustaining global food security.

El Nino is a natural and occasional warming of part of the Pacific that brings dry weather. A strong El Nino means less rainfall, which affects water-intensive crops like rice.

Following early reports of El Nino, and its associated risks, countries across Southeast Asia have imposed restrictions on the export of rice to other countries, leading to higher prices for countries that depend on imports.

India imposed a ban on the export of non-basmati rice on July 20 last year after considering its own needs. On August 25, a month after the export ban on non-basmati rice, India slapped a 20 percent export duty on parboiled rice.

While government officials say that Nepal will no longer need to import rice from India due to the bumper harvest, rice traders say varieties which Nepal’s urban consumers eat are normally not produced inside the country.

The Indian government granted Nepal a quota of 95,000 tonnes of rice after imposing a ban on the export of non-basmati rice.

Vibhor Agrawal, a member of the Association of Nepalese Rice, Oil and Pulses Industries, told the Post that urban consumers prefer long-slender grains and aromatic rice which Nepal does not produce.