The deadline for political parties interested in participating in the 12th parliamentary election in Bangladesh to inform the Election Commission (EC) was November 18. Only nine parties expressed their interest before the EC. The main opposition, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), chose not to inform the EC of its participation, and it has now resorted to protest/blockade. On November 19, 139 BNP leaders and activists were convicted for their involvement in violent incidents between 2013 and 2018, thereby eliminating them from the electoral race.

In Bangladesh, any person convicted and sentenced to more than two years in jail is constitutionally ineligible to contest unless five years has elapsed since their release. Meanwhile, Awami League (AL) office bearer Mujibul Haque Chowdhury has threatened the United States Ambassador Peter Haas for supporting the BNP. After Chowdhury’s video went viral, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ordered disciplinary action, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement as the US Ambassador to Bangladesh left the country for a “vacation” in Colombo.

Yet, the government is moving ahead to hold the election on January 7, 2024, as per the schedule announced by the EC. The ruling party is not leaving any space for dialogue and negotiation, and the BNP is also equally adamant in its one-point agenda of removing Hasina as a pre-requisite condition for a free and fair poll. In the forthcoming election, the ruling and opposition parties rely on their street strength to further their dichotomical agenda—Care Taker Government (CTG) and no Care Taker Government.

The BNP was preparing to stall the election without CTG since last year. It canvassed and mobilised the public around its 10-point agenda, holding rallies at the union and district levels. This year, its agenda revolves around the resignation of Hasina. Its demand for free and fair elections has found resonance among the Western countries that announced visa restrictions on individuals and entities involved in obstructing elections.

Election minus BNP

The AL is preparing for a multiparty election minus the BNP since last year. This was clear last month when the courts started hearing cases against BNP leaders accused of violence and arson between 2013 and 2018. The convictions in these cases have begun signalling the opposition leaders of the political consequences of these convictions. As the majority of BNP leaders and thousands of its activists have already been arrested after the October 28 rally, which led to two deaths, leading from the front has increasingly become difficult for the party. Many have gone into hiding to escape arrest. There are other less prominent parties opposed to an election with the CTG. The Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal (JSD-Rab), the Nagorik Oikya, Biplobi Workers Party, the Gono Odhikar Parishad, the Bhasani Onusari Parishad, the Rastra Sanskar Andolon and the Gonosanghati Andolon have come together to form the Ganatantra Mancha, which also shares the BNP’s concerns regarding free and fair election. Islamic parties like the Jamaat Islami, which has a political presence, and the Islami Shashonotantra Andolan are also pitching for an election-time Caretaker Government.

Ten other political parties that have consented to contest the election are now busy fielding candidates including the three new parties—Trinamool BNP, Bangladesh Nationalist Movement (BNM) and Bangladesh Supreme Party—that got registration from the Election Commission. Some of the former lawmakers from the BNP have also joined the BNM, exposing the strategy to bring winnable candidates to opposition parties patronised by the government. In the opposition political space, the Jatiyo Party, which had a presence in the last two parliaments, remains the weakest link. The intra-party rivalry between Rawshan Ershad, wife of the party founder Gen HM Ershad, and his brother GM Quader, has created differences over who will sign the nomination paper as the party has to soon inform the EC. Both have sent letters.

Western concerns

The Western Countries, mainly the US, have been critical of the deterioration of human rights situation and expressed their concern over a “free and fair” election. It continues to urge dialogue between the parties and even imposed a visa ban. Therefore, the Awami League’s main concern is passing Western scrutiny on the forthcoming election. The government has assured several times that the election will be free and fair, but the 2018 election overwhelms the hope. The BNP’s absence, the AL fears, would undermine the electoral outcome. It is busy arranging an election which can be considered a multiparty election but would be minus the BNP. There is a question regarding the electoral process: Whether an election minus the BNP that was in power for three terms after 1991 can pass Western scrutiny of “free and fair”.

The BNP is stuck with its one-point agenda. Even though it wanted to continue with peaceful protests and blockades, the October 28 rally demonstrated that things can get out of hand. It is important to note that the party leadership in London wants its divisional leaders to be active in supporting anti-government programmes, but on the ground, many are reluctant as they fear arrest. Its main ally, the Jamaat Islami, which announced a tactical separation from the BNP last year, is still contemplating whether to contest or not. Though the party has been preparing to field independent candidates, it is watching the situation closely. It has supported BNP programmes and shown solidarity with the party. The JI knows it cannot exist independently without the BNP.

The road ahead is becoming murkier. While it is becoming clear that the BNP may not participate in the election, it will not be in a position to stop its leaders from joining the smaller parties to fight the election. Unlike the Jamaat, BNP’s support system for its arrested cadres does not exist. The last date to file a nomination is November 30. As Bangladesh approaches the election, the BNP and the AL will face challenges. For the BNP, retaining its cadres and influence would be tough. For the AL, the reaction of the international community would be important. But in a political fight where the winner takes all, how the internal politics would shape up is more significant than international opinion.