Swedes vote in an election on Sunday that will either bring a far-right party into government for the first time or shift the country back towards the liberalism ‌it has long been known for.

Sweden’s centre-left opposition holds a narrow lead over the ruling right-wing bloc ahead of a September 13 election for parliament, pointing to a likely change of government, several opinion polls have shown this week.

But Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who has trailed in opinion polls throughout his four years in office, has been catching up in the final weeks of campaigning, with rival Magdalena Andersson and her Social Democrats losing ground.

Supporters of the right-wing bloc say its policies have helped curb gang violence and cut immigration dramatically, and that a victory would amount to a public endorsement of that approach and more in the ⁠same vein in the years ahead.

“We can unify parties, voters and issues into joint action. That’s why we get things done,” Kristersson, who has pledged to bring the far-right Sweden Democrats into government if his bloc wins, told reporters in parliament this week.

Critics counter that the agenda is undermining civil liberties while forcing immigrants to conform more closely to Swedish cultural norms or leave the country, urged on by both carrot and stick.

“We’ve become a harder society, a quieter society, but also a poorer society as we’ve had growth far below our potential and where households see their pay checks buy less and less,” Andersson told Reuters.

“Our country has based its strength on sharing in each other’s achievements and that we stick together when things are hard.”

Strong showing by far right would align with European trend

Polling stations in the EU member state of 10 million people, which joined NATO after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, open at 8 a.m. (0600 GMT) with exit polls due soon after they close at 1800 GMT.

Electoral ‌success for ⁠the Sweden Democrats would be welcomed by Europe’s rising far-right parties, boosted by a significant win in a German state election this month by the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany.

The right has already agreed to form a four-party government led by Kristersson if they win, while Andersson’s path to power is more uncertain.

The election could ultimately be decided by whether the Liberals surpass the 4% threshold to win seats in parliament, bolstering a right wing that includes Moderates, Christian Democrats and, since being invited by Kristersson earlier this year, Sweden Democrats.

Led by veteran party leader Jimmie ⁠Akesson, the Sweden Democrats have already spent four years propping up Kristersson’s minority government in parliament, building credibility with the broader right-wing bloc.

Meanwhile, the rival blocs have converged on several voter priorities, including support for Ukraine, military rearmament and relief for households hit by the cost-of-living crisis.

While the opposition Social Democrats, Greens, Left Party and Centre Party broadly agree on the ⁠need for higher welfare and public spending, divisions persist on many issues, including immigration, where Andersson’s party wants a more restrictive line than some of its would-be partners.

They are also at odds over issues including a tax on billionaires and building new nuclear reactors, while the Centre refuses to support a government that includes the Left ⁠Party, increasing the challenge Andersson would face to form a cabinet.

Luring the Christian Democrats to switch camps to create a centrist government is favoured by the Centre Party but so far looks a distant prospect.