Koshi Province Chief Minister Hikmat Kumar Karki will face a floor test on Saturday.

Karki on Wednesday informed provincial assembly secretary Gopal Prasad Parajuli about tabling a trust motion at the meeting scheduled for 1pm tomorrow.

UML provincial assembly leader Karki, who was appointed chief minister as per Article 168 (3) of the constitution on September 8 has to secure a vote of confidence within Saturday as per the constitutional provision.

On September 7, a full bench of the apex court comprising Justices Sapana Pradhan Malla, Kumar Chudal and Nahakul Subedi issued the mandamus order to appoint Karki as the chief minister within 48 hours as per Article 168(3) of the constitution. The chief minister appointed under clause (2) or (3) of the Article shall obtain a vote of confidence from the provincial assembly no later than 30 days after the date of such appointment.

It is clear that Chief Minister Karki, who is in the minority, will not get a vote of confidence from the provincial assembly unless there is a dramatic development in the present political equation.

Karki has support only from 40 provincial assembly members including deputy speaker Srijana Danuwar, who is chairing the meetings, in the 93-member assembly. Any lawmaker chairing the meeting can’t cast a vote unless there is a tie.

The Rastriya Prajatantra Party which had been in an alliance with the UML said it would not support the government. The party has six provincial assembly members.

In the assembly, the UML has 40 seats, the Congress 29, the Maoist Centre 13, the RPP six, the CPN (Unified Socialist) four, and the Janata Samajbadi Party one seat.

According to the political equation of the provincial assembly, Karki will receive the support of only 39 members.

Chief Minister Karki is seen to have formulated a strategy of creating a divide in the Congress-led alliance. A UML provincial assembly member said the chief minister is in the strategy of securing a vote of confidence by getting the support of one party among the Maoists, the Congress and the Unified Socialist. The lawmaker said the chief minister plans to get votes from factions and sub-factions within these parties in the event that these parties do not formally support him.

The Congress has already decided not to give a vote of confidence to Chief Minister Karki. Indra Bahadur Angbo, the Maoist leader, and Rajendra Kumar Rai, the leader of the Unified Socialist and former chief minister, also said that their parties will not give a vote of confidence to Chief Minister Karki.

Bhakti Sitaula, RPP provincial assembly leader, said they will decide on the trust motion after discussing within the party. Earlier, RPP President Rajendra Lingden had stated that the party doesn’t support the UML-led government this time around.

The meeting of the RPP Central Working Committee has entrusted President Lingden with the authority to make decisions on whether or not to participate in the government to be formed according to Article 168 (5) of the constitution.

A leader from the party said RPP will support the trust motion only if any party in the Congress-led alliance supports the chief minister.

If the chief minister appointed under Article 168 (3) is unable to secure a vote of confidence, then the government can be formed under 168 (5), giving lawmakers a chance to present a ground on which he or she can get a vote of confidence in the assembly. In such a case, the province head will appoint such a member as the chief minister. The chief minister appointed under 168(5) also needs to secure a vote of confidence within a month.

If all these processes fail to produce a government, the province will have no option but to go for midterm elections. That appears increasingly likely as no political party or alliance commands a majority in the assembly.