The Election Commission presented the results of all seven provincial assemblies to their respective provincial chiefs on Saturday, paving the way for starting the process to form new governments in provinces.

Discussions are already on to form new governments, but the provincial committees are waiting for the top leaders of major parties to take a formal decision on power-sharing.

Since the existing Congress-led coalition is likely to continue leading the federal government for the next term, it is highly likely that the coalition member parties will form governments also in the provinces.

Ruling coalition partners—the Congress, the CPN (Maoist Centre), the CPN (Unified Socialist), the Rastriya Janamorcha and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party—are working on a package deal for power-sharing at both the federal and provincial levels.

“Our coalition will form governments in all provinces,” said Ramesh Lekhak, a Nepali Congress leader close to Deuba. “Province 1 was doubtful, but there also, we can form a government with the support of the Janata Samajbadi Party.”

He said negotiations have started across provinces among the parties, but things will become clear only after a package deal is reached between the coalition partners, which may take around a week.

Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Thapaliya presented the final report of the November 20 federal and provincial polls to the President on Thursday.

After the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, which has only four seats in the House of Representatives and seven seats in the Madhesh Province, decided to join coalition-led government in provinces, and the Janata Samajbadi Party keen the join the coalition, the possibility is high of the ruling coalition forming governments in all provinces.

However, Maoist Centre Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who asked Prime Minister Deuba on Saturday to support his bid for premiership, has been desperate to take the helm of the federal government. And if the Congress refused his bid, there is a possibility of Dahal defecting to the CPN-UML camp, which would prompt a new leftist coalition and accordingly change the power equation in provinces also.

The picture of who will be new chief ministers becomes clear when the political parties elect their parliamentary party leaders.

“We will lay claim to at least one chief minister, but we have not finalised which province that would be,” said Jagannath Khatiwada, spokesperson for the CPN (Unified Socialist).

PROVINCE 1

The 93-strong Province 1 assembly needs 47 seats for a majority. The calculations for the government formation became tricky with Janata Samajbadi Party’s Nirmala Limbu having the key to the government as both the ruling coalition and the UML-led alliance have 46 members each.

Kedar Karki, a Congress leader close to Shekhar Koirala, Amrit Aryal and Pradip Sunuwar [close to Deuba] and Bhim Parajuli close to Krishna Prasad Sitaula from the Congress; Hikmat Karki from the UML, Indra Aangbo from the Maoist Centre and Rajendra Rai from the CPN (Unified Socialist) all are eying chief ministership here.

“Leaders who can garner votes from two of the three factions can win the parliamentary party leader race,” said Rajiv Koirala, a provincial leader of the Congress.

With the Congress being the second-largest party and the Unified Socialist, which is currently leading the province, commanding only four seats, either the Congress or the Maoist Centre could get a chance to lead the provincial government through a package deal.

Party Standings

UML = 40/chief minister hopeful Hikmat Karki

NC = 29/chief minister hopefuls Kedar Karki; Amrit Aryal and Pradip Sunuwar; Bhim Parajuli

Maoist Centre = 13/chief minister hopeful Indra Aangbo

RPP = 6

Unified Socialist = 4/chief minister hopeful Rajendra Rai

Janata Samajbadi Party = 1

MADHESH PROVINCE

In the 2017 provincial elections, Upendra Yadav’s JSP had 39 seats, while the Mahantha Thakur-led LSP had won 16, enough to form their coalition government.

Madhesh was the only province where the left alliance was out of power and its chief minister Lalbabu Raut didn’t change throughout the five-year term, despite a change in political equation after the split in the Nepal Communist Party in 2020. But the November 20 election has changed the political equation and the chief ministership is expected to go to the Nepali Congress. Currently, the Congress provincial committee is in intense deliberations to pick its parliamentary party leader.

With a total of 107 seats in the province, the UML is the largest party in Madhesh with 23 seats, followed by the Congress with 22 and Janata Samajbadi Party with 16. The Janamat Party has 13 seats. The Loktantrik Samajbadi Party stands fifth with nine seats, the Maoist Centre commands eight seats and the Unified Socialist has seven.

The Congress-led alliance that includes the Congress, the Maoist Centre, the Unified Socialist and the LSP together make up just 36 seats. So the alliance needs the backing of either the JSP, which has 16 seats, or the Janamat Party with 13 seats, to ensure a majority. If it joined hands with the JSP, its number would reach 52, and the backing of two independent members could take the total to 54 seats, which is a must for forming the government. But if it chose to go with the Janamat Party, the coalition needs the backing of five independent lawmakers.

“Once the members of provincial assemblies take oath, we will elect the parliamentary party leader,” said Yuvaraj Bhattarai, the Rautahat in-charge of the Maoist Centre who is also an aspirant for parliamentary party leadership.

The Congress is most likely to get the chief ministership here this time. Krishna Prasad Yadav, Ram Saroj Yadav and Janardan Singh Chhetri are the major contenders for parliamentary party leader from the Congress.

Current Chief Minister Lalbabu Raut of the JSP also wants to retain the position.

Party standings

UML= 23/chief minister hopeful Ram Chandra Mandal

NC=22/chief minister hopefuls Krishna Prasad Yadav, Ram Saroj Yadav and Janardan Singh Chhetri

JSP=16/chief minister hopeful Lalbabu Raut

Janamat=13

LSP=9

MC=8

Unified Socialist=7

Independent=5

Sanghiya Samajbadi-1

Nagarik Unmukti-1

BAGMATI PROVINCE

In the 110-strong Bagmati provincial assembly, the Congress has 37 members, UML 27, Maoist Centre 21, RPP 13, Unified Socialist seven, Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party three and Hamro Nepali Party has two seats. Indra Baniya is a strong contender for chief ministership from the Congress this time, as the agreement last time between the Unified Socialist and the Maoist Centre to share half-term with him could not be implemented, although a few others—Bahadur Singh Lama of Nuwakot and Tirtha Lama of Kavre—are also preparing to contest for parliamentary party leadership from the Congress. If the province is led by the Maoist Centre, then Shalikram Jammarkattel is a strong candidate for chief minister, although a few others are also eyeing the position, including Saral Poudel.

Party Standings

NC=37/chief minister hopefuls Indra Baniya; Bahadur Singh Lama; Tirtha Lama

UML=27/chief minister hopeful Jaganath Thapaliya

MC=21/chief minister hopefuls Shalikram Jammarkattel, Saral Poudel

RPP= 13

Unified Socialist=7

NWPP=3

Hamro Nepali=2

GANDAKI PROVINCE

Surendra Pandey and Mahendra Dhwaj GC of the Nepali Congress are eying the parliamentary party leadership of the Gandaki Province, while Khagaraj Adhikari is the sole candidate for the post from the UML, and Hari Bahadur Chuman is the only candidate from the CPN (Maoist Centre). The Congress with 27 seats and the Maoist Centre with eight seats can easily form a coalition government in the 60-strong assembly.

For the UML to form a government, it would need the support of the Maoist Centre and either the RPP having two seats or the Unified Socialist having one seat, which is unlikely.

Party Standings

NC=27/chief minister hopefuls Surendra Pandey and Mahendra Dhoj GC

UML=22/chief minister hopeful Khagaraj Adhikari

MC=8/chief minister hopeful Hari Bahadur Chuman

RPP=2

Unified Socialist=1

LUMBINI PROVINCE

In the 87-strong Lumbini Province, the UML is the largest party with 29 seats, followed by the Congress with 27 seats. The Maoist Centre has nine, the Nagarik Unmukti has four and the JSP, the LSP, the Janamat and independents have three seats each in the Assembly. To form a government, they need 44 seats, for which the ruling coalition needs the support of the Nagarik Unmukti and the Janamat Party.

Maoist leader Jokh Bahadur Mahara, who served as chief personal secretary to party chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, is the strongest candidate from the party for chief minister besides Dhan Bahadur Maski, while Dilli Bahadur Chaudhary tops the list of Congress. Lila Giri will become chief minister from the UML if the party gets to lead the government.

Party Standings

NC=27/chief minister hopefuls Dilli Bahadur Chaudhary and Abdul Rajak

UML=29/chief minister hopefuls Lila Giri and Bhumishor Dhakal

MC=9/chief minister hopefuls Jokh Bahadur Mahara and Dhan Bahadur Maski

RPP=4

Nagarik Unmukti=4

JSP=3

LSP=3

Independent=3

KARNALI PROVINCE

In the 40-strong Karnali provincial assembly, any party seeking to lead the government needs the support of 21 members. Congress leader Jivan Bahadur Shahi, who is currently leading the government, is one of the strongest candidates for the post, while Bindaman Bista and Raj Kumar Sharma are the strong candidates from the Maoist Centre. Similarly, Yamlal Kandel, who had tried his best during the previous term of the provincial assembly, is the sole candidate from the UML.

Party Standings

NC=14/chief minister hopeful Jivan Bahadur Shahi

MC=13/chief minister hopefuls Bindaman Bista and Raj Kumar Sharma

UML=10/chief minister hopeful Yamlal Kandel

Unified Socialist=1

SUDURPASCHIM PROVINCE

SudurPaschim became the only province in the previous term where the chief minister (Trilochan Bhatta of the Maoist Centre) remained unchanged throughout the past five years, despite many changes in cabinet ministers.

Bhatta’s replacement has yet to be found since the ruling coalition has not finalised its package deal. Congress, as the first party with 19 seats in the 53-strong assembly, has four chief ministerial claimants—Bahadur Singh Thapa, Prakash Deuba, Meghraj Khadka and Diwan Singh Bista. From the Maoist Centre, Khagaraj Bhatta is the only candidate for the top job. Maoist Centre is the second-largest party here with 11 seats, the UML became the third largest party with 10 seats, the Nagarik Unmukti has seven seats, the Unified Socialist has four seats, and one seat was won by an independent candidate. Since the Congress and the Maoist Centre who together have 30 seats, can form a government here, the chief minister will be from one of the two parties.

Party standings

NC=19/chief minister hopefuls Bahadur Singh Thapa, Prakash Deuba, Meghraj Khadka and Diwan Singh Bista

UML=11/chief minister hopeful Rajendra Singh Rawal

MC=10/chief minister hopeful Khagaraj Bhatta

Nagarik Unmukti=7

Unified Socialist=4/chief minister hopeful Dirgha Sodari

Independent=1