On the same date last year, Kulekhani reservoir was brimful, forcing authorities to open its sluices. The sudden release swept away roads and more than two dozen homes in downstream settlements. This year, on the very same date, the reservoir stands far from capacity.

As of Sunday morning, the water level in Kulekhani’s Indrasarovar reservoir was measured at 1,504.21 metres. With a full storage elevation of 1,530 metres, that leaves about 26 metres yet to fill. Heavy rains usually during monsoon months are vital to raising the reservoir level, but this year’s rainfall has failed to push it even halfway. While in a normal monsoon the surface would rise daily by 50 to 75 centimetres, this year it struggles to grow by even 20 cm. Last year on September 27 alone, water level jumped as much as 5 metres in one day.

“In the catchment area, there is barely any rainfall now,” said Tara Datta Bhatt, chief of Kulekhani-I Hydropower Project. “We are already past the last week of September, and the forecasts suggest it will be very hard for the reservoir to fill. With only normal rains, it is unlikely we’ll ever reach capacity this season. Only widespread, uneven showers can push it.”

When levels are low, the consequences ripple outwards. The hydropower project is currently not in operation as water is reserved for the dry season. If the reservoir fails to fill, electricity generation in the dry season will suffer.

Both the locals and visiting tourists in Markhu and Chitlang—who come expecting scenic water views—have been turning back disappointed.

Fields in areas usually submerged by the reservoir now sprout green grass instead of water. “We need rainfall as it was in September last year,” said a senior technician at the project. “Only that kind of concentrated downpour will refill the reservoir; the rain now won’t do much.”

The Kulekhani reservoir is about 7 kilometres long and 300 metres wide, with a total holding capacity of some 85.3 million cubic metres. It supports three hydropower plants: Kulekhani-I (60 MW), Kulekhani-II (32 MW) and Kulekhani-III (14 MW). The drawdown limit for power generation is 1,484 metres—below which water becomes unusable for power generation.

Historically, the reservoir has struggled in underperforming monsoons. In 2023, for example, Kulekhani remained well under capacity even after the monsoon season had passed. Back in 2016, Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) had been criticised for overusing the reservoir during dry spells, which pushed levels dangerously low.

If the reservoir cannot replenish itself sufficiently this year, the downstream effects could be serious. As a backup to Nepal’s power grid, Kulekhani’s ability to generate energy is crucial when run-of-river plants underperform in dry months. Prolonged shutdowns could mean power shortfalls or load shedding for many consumers.