Ending speculations, embattled Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal will seek a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives on July 12. The prime minister sent a letter to the Parliament Secretariat asking the latter to make arrangements for the vote.

After CPN-UML, the largest party in the Dahal government, withdrew its support on Wednesday following a deal with the Nepali Congress to form a new coalition, the prime minister lost the majority in the House.

If the prime minister fails to win the vote of confidence on July 12, which is almost certain, he will resign, one of his aides said. As Nepali Congress, the largest party in the House of Representatives, decided to extend support to KP Sharma Oli, the UML chair, as the next prime minister, both the parties have been urging Dahal to step down as soon as possible.

The two largest parties have asked the government not to make any decisions with far-reaching consequences. The UML registered a letter at the Parliament Secretariat on Thursday, informing the Speaker that the party will sit in the opposition.

However, it is still unclear what constitutional provision will be used to initiate the new government formation process.

The Congress is going to give its support to Oli in writing, a senior party leader said. “We will soon hand over the signatures of all our lawmakers to Oli and assure that the Nepali Congress is committed to forming the government led by Oli as per Article 76 (2). The signatures will also be sent to the President's Office.”

The Congress has already determined that the new government will be formed as per Article 76 (2). “We suspect the prime minister might move the Supreme Court if the President triggers the new government formation process as per Article 76 (2) [of the constitution]. We want to assure Oli that we are committed to supporting him and the President should call for the new government formation as per 76 (2),” the leader said.

Shekhar Koirala, a senior Nepali Congress leader, is cautious about the two-party deal. “Since the prime minister has not resigned, we must be careful if the new government formation will proceed under Article 76 (3).” Article 76 (3) of the constitution states that the President appoints as prime minister the parliamentary party leader of the party that has the highest number of members in the House of Representatives.

The prime minister and some of his aides claim that after completing the process of government formation under 76 (2), the President should now call for the government formation as per Article 76 (3). However, some constitutional experts have suggested that Article 76 (2) may still be applicable.

“We don’t want the next government to be formed as per Article 76 (3),” said Koirala. “The incumbent government was formed as per Article 76 (2) but if the prime minister resigns, some constitutional experts suggest that the President should initiate the process to form a new government under the same provision. But if the prime minister goes for a floor test and fails, then the new government process should proceed under Article 76 (3).”

If the prime minister does not resign, “then we have to think”, said Koirala. In that case, what happens next as per the constitution is a matter of concern.

Due to frequent changes in the ruling coalition, it will be Dahal’s fifth floor test after being appointed prime minister on December 25, 2022. The prime minister is likely to lose the trust vote this time.

Dahal chose the floor test in accordance with Article 100(2) of the constitution, which says: If the political party which the prime minister represents is divided or a party in the coalition government withdraws its support, the prime minister must table a motion in the House of Representatives for a vote of confidence within 30 days.

In the 275-strong House of Representatives, Dahal needs the backing of 138 to win the vote of trust. But he has only 73 lawmakers—32 from CPN (Maoist Centre), Rastriya Swatantra Party’s 21, and 10 from the CPN (Unified Socialist)—in his support. The Janamat Party with six members and the Nagarik Unmukti Party with four lawmakers also support him.

These parties held a meeting on Friday.

The Janata Samajbadi Party, led by Ashok Rai, withdrew its support to the government on Friday. Two ministers and one state minister of the newly formed party resigned. It has seven lawmakers in the lower house.

As per the understanding between the Congress and the UML, Oli will lead a ‘national consensus government’ for a year and a half. Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba will succeed him and head the government for the remaining term of the House.

The prime minister went for the fourth-floor test on May 20 after the Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal withdrew its support following a split on May 5. Dahal received 157 votes in the 275-member House of Representatives.