With several prominent politicians and noted personalities registering their nominations, the by-elections scheduled for April 23 in three constituencies in three districts have garnered considerable public interest.

Candidates registered their nominations on Monday for the by-elections to be held at Bara-2, Chitwan-2 and Tanahun-1, as asked by the Election Commission.

Of the three constituencies, the race in Bara-2 is perhaps the most intriguing.

Three regional parties—Janamat Party, the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party and the Nagarik Unmukti Party—had last month forged an alliance with a declared objective of stopping Janata Samajbadi Party’s Upendra Yadav from becoming a lawmaker.

But weeks after the formation of the sub-alliance within the ruling alliance, their partnership has disintegrated after Loktantrik Samajbadi on Sunday announced its support to Janata Samajbadi’s Yadav in the bypolls.

Janata Samajbadi Party chair Upendra Yadav on Monday registered his nomination for the seat as the official candidate of the ruling coalition. But another ruling coalition partner Janamat Party has fielded Shiva Chandra Kushwaha against Yadav.

Other rival parties such as the Rastriya Swatantra Party has fielded former deputy inspector general of Nepal Police Ramesh Kharel and UML has fielded its politburo member and former minister Purushottam Poudel in the constituency.

The Congress is officially supporting JSP chair Yadav, as are the CPN (Maoist Centre), the CPN (Unified Socialist) and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP). The Janamat Party of the ruling coalition fielded former Maoist leader Kushwaha arguing that Yadav, who was beaten by its chair CK Raut in Saptari-2, should wait for at least five years to contest polls again.

Raut had defeated Yadav with a margin of more than 18,000 votes in the general election last November. Janamat Party welcomed former Maoist leader Kushawaha offering him candidacy against Yadav in Bara-2.

The LSP had said senior leader Rajendra Mahato would be contesting from Bara-2, but the party later decided to support Yadav, breaking the three-party alliance with the Janamat Party and the Nagarik Unmukti Party.

After Raut defeated him in November, Yadav was planning to enter the House of Representatives by getting his close leader Ramsahay Prasad Yadav appointed as Vice President. His plan appears to be working. Ramsahay was elected Vice President and his lawmaker position in Bara-2 was vacated. Now after getting the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party’s support, Upendra Yadav seems to have improved his odds significantly.

In the November 20 polls, Ramsahay had defeated Kushwaha by a small margin with the help of UML’s votes while the then Maoist candidate had the support of the coalition including the Congress.

A popular JSP leader, Ramsahay won the polls garnering 13,823 votes against Kushwaha’s 13,468. But two independent candidates also bagged sizable votes—Ram Kishore Prasad Yadav bagged 11,043 votes while Rabindra Prasad Yadav, who filed his candidacy after Congress supported the Maoist candidate, got 10,750 votes.

JSP leaders claim that Ram Kishore has already joined their party and started campaigning for the party chair.

Another candidate Arun Kumar Gyawali, who was also close to the Congress, received 7,698 votes. In the constituency, Janamat Party’s candidate Rajesh Sah got only 2,725 votes.

“With five parties backing him, Upendra Yadav seems to have no formidable opponent left,” said Keshav Jha, an LSP leader. “Other candidates will have to fight for the second position as the Congress and the JSP have a significant voter base there.”

Jha said for the Janamat and UML candidates to win, they must create a whim in the vein of the RSP’s leaders who romped home in select constituencies in the previous polls.

However, political analysts say it's not easy for Upendra Yadav to win even this time.

“In Bara-2, it’s more a litmus test for Upendra than CK Raut,” said Tula Narayan Shah, a political analyst. “Given the alliance, Upendra seems to be in a far stronger position. But in terms of social polarisation, Raut seems to be ahead. So, it’s difficult to predict.”

In Chitwan-2, during the previous polls, RSP chair Rabi Lamichhane had set the record for winning by the highest vote difference—34,140 votes against Congress candidate Umesh Shrestha, who got 15,091. UML’s Krishna Bhakta Pokhrel got 14,649 votes.

The Congress has fielded a district leader, Jit Narayan Shrestha, as a common candidate of the ruling coalition.

Jagannath Poudel, a rebel Congress candidate in the previous November 20 polls, has announced his support for Lamichhane this time.

Likewise, the UML is fielding its district chair Ram Prasad Neupane in the constituency.

Though leaders of different parties say the RSP chair Lamichhane has lost the charm he exuded during the previous polls, many others say he will win this time as well.

One interesting aspect of this bypoll is that the ruling party CPN (Maoist Centre) has not fielded its candidates in any of the three constituencies. The third-largest party in Parliament is instead supporting the candidates of the ruling coalition in all three seats.

In Tanahun-1, Sarbendra Khanal from the UML, Swarnim Wagle from the RSP and local leader Govinda Bhattarai from the Congress are contesting the polls.

According to local Congress leaders, given the party’s traditional strength in the constituency and with former dissident Congress leader Govinda Raj Joshi out of the picture, the situation this time is more favourable for the Congress candidate.

Congress candidate Bhattarai will also have the support of three major parties in the ruling coalition—the CPN (Maoist Centre), the Janata Samajbadi Party and the CPN (Unified Socialist).

President Ramchandra Paudel had won the November 20 polls from Tanahun-1 with 25,361 votes against UML’s Ek Bahadur Rana Magar who got 19,981 votes. The rebel candidate against the Congress, Govinda Raj Joshi, secured 6,886 votes, and the RSP received around 6,044 votes while RPP got 2,484 votes.

To woo the party’s Govinda Raj Joshi-led dissident faction, the Congress has decided to lift the suspension of general membership of Joshi and his associates who had been punished for revolting against the party’s official candidates. Their previous party positions have also been restored. But Joshi, issuing a press statement, said the move was meaningless.

Congress general secretary Gagan Thapa, lawmaker Shankar Bhandari, local leaders Dhruba Wagle, Raghu Poudel and Ram Chandra Pokhrel have already jumped into the election campaign in Bhattarai’s support. Along with the chiefs and mayors of the local units in the constituency, Thapa and other central-level leaders are busy devising strategies to ensure the party’s victory.

However, local Maoist Centre leaders seem to be noncommittal to a coalition candidate.

“The fate of the Congress candidate depends on how many votes the party can get from the traditional Maoist Centre voters. Not all Maoist Centre votes may go to the Congress,” said a senior Maoist Centre leader of the district. “Many Maoist Centre cadres in the district feel ‘suppressed’ by their Congress counterparts.”

“Joshi could play a crucial role. If he supports Wagle, the Congress votes could be divided between Govinda Bhattarai and Wagle, helping Khanal emerge victorious,” the Maoist Centre leader told the Post.

Sarbendra Khanal was defeated by Rastriya Swatantra Party’s Shishir Khanal in Kathmandu-6 in November polls last year.

The Congress is under pressure with its leader Wagle deciding to join the RSP and contest from Tanahun-1, as the party could lose one seat in the House of Representatives if it cannot secure its seat in the constituency.