Pushpa Kamal Dahal secured the vote of confidence in four consecutive tries after becoming the prime minister on December 25, 2022, but when he goes for his fifth on Friday, he is almost sure to fail.

After CPN-UML, the largest coalition partner, withdrew its support to the government on July 3, Prime Minister Dahal has been leading the minority government.

Soon after the UML withdrew its support, the Janata Samajbadi Party, led by Ashok Rai, also pulled the plug on the government. The CPN-UML has 77 seats and the newly formed Rai-led party has 7 seats in the House of Representatives.

Dahal on July 5 decided to go for the floor test after the UML’s withdrawal of the support.

Dahal opted for the floor test in accordance with Article 100(2) of the constitution which says, “If the political party which the prime minister represents is divided or a political party in coalition government withdraws its support, the prime minister shall table a motion in the House of Representatives for a vote of confidence within thirty days.”

Dahal, who had the support of 268 lawmakers in his first attempt at a floor test, is likely to see that vote slashed by almost 200 this time.

As things stood on Thursday, Dahal is most likely to get 32 votes from his CPN (Maoist Centre), 21 from the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and 10 from the CPN (Unified Socialist).

The parliamentary party meeting of Unified Socialist on Thursday decided to give Prime Minister Dahal the trust vote.

Though the RSP has called a meeting of its parliamentary party on Friday morning, a party lawmaker said, “Since we have been continuing in the government despite being in a minority, we are morally bound to give the vote of trust to Prime Minister Dahal.”

On July 4, RSP leaders had announced they’d quit the government but ministers from the party met the prime minister later that day and decided not to resign immediately. They said they backtracked on their plan after the prime minister sought their support until the floor test.

To secure a majority in the 275-strong House, one needs 138 votes.

The Congress and the UML, which have 88 and 77 House of Representatives seats, respectively, have already decided to vote against Prime Minister Dahal. Likewise, the Rastriya Prajantra Party, which has 14 seats, has also decided to vote against Dahal.

The Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal, led by Upendra Yadav, and the Janata Samajbadi Party, led by Ashok Rai, which have 5 and 7 seats, respectively, have said they will vote against Dahal.

The Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, which has four seats in the House, is also standing against Dahal during the floor test. “Our party is a member of the democratic alliance led by the Nepali Congress,” Ram Parkash Chaudhary, a lawmaker of the party, told the Post. “Therefore, we will vote against Prime Minister Dahal.”

Dahal also will not get the trust vote of the Nagarik Unmukti Party. “Since our party has already withdrawn support to the Dahal government, our party will stand against him during the floor test,” Ranjita Shrestha, a lawmaker of the party, told the Post.

The CK Raut-led Janamat Party, which has six seats in the lower house, will also stand against Prime Minister Dahal. “The party has already decided to stand against Prime Minister Dahal’s trust motion,” Abdul Khan, a lawmaker of the party, said.

After the November 2022 election, Dahal, chief of the third-largest party in the House, continuously led the government for over one-and-a-half years exploiting the support of both the Congress and the UML, by turn. During this period, the UML backed Dahal two times while the Congress supported him once to form the government.

Dahal first became the prime minister with the UML’s support. But the Congress was bent on breaking the UML-Maoist alliance and supported him in the vote of confidence after his swearing-in.

After that, Dahal and Deuba started hobnobbing. When Dahal decided to support Congress candidate Ramchandra Paudel in the presidential election, the UML withdrew its support to the Dahal government on February 26, 2023.

When Dahal faced the second floor test on March 20, he secured 172 votes in the House.

Dahal, during the second trust vote, was supported by the Congress, Rastriya Swatantra Party, Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal (before the party split), Unified Socialist, Janamat Party, Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party, three independent lawmakers and a lawmaker of Rastriya Janamorcha.

On March 4, Dahal broke its coalition with the Congress to join hands with the UML. He then went for the floor test for the third time on March 13.

In his third floor test, Dahal received 157 votes from the UML, RSP, Janata Samajbadi Party, Unified Socialist, and Nagarik Unmukti Party, in addition to his own party.

Meanwhile, Dahal again went for the floor test on May 20, for the fourth time, just two months after his third attempt. This time, he had to seek the parliament’s confidence after a group of seven lawmakers from his coalition partner Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal split the party and formed a new outfit under Ashok Rai’s leadership on May 5.

After the party split, JSP-Nepal chair Upendra Yadav withdrew its support to the government. In the subsequent floor test, Dahal garnered 157 votes.

Out of 12 political parties in the House of Representatives, along with the first and second largest parties—the Congress and the UML—other 10 parties and five independent lawmakers supported Dahal when he sought a vote of trust for the first time after the 2022 election.

In the hung parliament, there are only two scenarios to form the government. Either the Congress and the UML should come together, or one of them should build the majority with the support of other fringe parties to form the government.

This time, the Congress and the UML decided to forge a partnership despite the odds. As per the understanding between the two parties, UML chief KP Sharma Oli will lead a ‘national consensus government’ for a year and a half. After that, Sher Bahadur Deuba, the Congress president, will succeed him for the remaining term of the House.