As calls for reform swept through the nation, culminating in the fatal protests on September 8 and 9, which overthrew the incumbent government, the scale of problems facing Nepal has taken on a new dimension. Tragically, over 70 young people gave their lives to secure our future and create a corruption-free government. We owe them immensely.

While we grieve and express our condolences to their loved ones, concerns about our economy and livelihoods remain as daunting as ever. Many have lost their jobs, which will not be replaced anytime soon. The financial losses incurred are yet to be assessed. Closely tied to these concerns, and continuing unabated in the meantime, is the climate crisis. It rages on with an emerging and vital aspect of the changing weather system currently affecting every aspect of our economy, primarily agriculture, energy and connectivity.

A significant change in rainfall patterns is visible, with the monsoon becoming highly erratic. The July dry spell disrupted rice planting, while likely delayed withdrawal risks the loss of ready-to-harvest paddy like before. The low-intensity incessant rains (Jhari in Nepali) that helped with soil moisture augmentation have disappeared in recent decades. Instead, we now experience high-intensity short-duration rainfall that often leads to debris flow and floods. These altered rainfall characteristics are detrimental to agriculture, which is the economic base of a majority of the population. Consequently, farmers face increased agricultural risks in a sector already marred by uncertainty, making investment returns risky until the crops are harvested and stored safely.

This age-old hydrological stability is declining due to rapidly changing weather systems. Much focus has been given to the visible signs, such as retreating glaciers and expanding glacial lakes. However, we have overlooked the less obvious yet even more critical changes occurring at lower altitudes—land drying faster, with dried springs and shrinking rivulets affecting food production and, in the worst cases, causing displacement. This year’s delayed monsoon, which prompted the government to announce a plan to install 500 deep tube-wells in the Tarai, demonstrated the extent to which our farmland has dried.

Emissions down, warming up

Global warming is believed to have caused erratic monsoon behaviour and altered rainfall patterns. International efforts have focused on reducing carbon emissions and achieving net-zero emissions within a few decades. Contrarily, the rate of global warming has doubled in the last two decades. This is surprising considering global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have slowed emissions in major industrialised countries.

For instance, between 2000 and 2023, the European Union’s GHG emissions fell by 31 percent, while those of the US and Japan declined by 19 percent and 22 percent, respectively. These reductions resulted from a significant growth in solar and wind energy. And yet, the warming has doubled, which begs the question: Why has it increased so steeply despite the overall global GHG emissions rising by only about 35 percent during this period?

Recent studies provide clues to this puzzle. According to them, the rise in global temperatures is partly due to the reduction in cloud cover, previously underestimated in global warming analysis. Clouds acted as cooling agents until the turn of the century, but due to the reduction in aerosols in the atmosphere, particularly since 2005, cloud cover has dwindled—and this trend has become more pronounced after 2020. Aerosols serve as nuclei for water vapour to condense and form cloud droplets. Fewer aerosols acting as nuclei to initiate cloud formation decrease cloud cover, causing clouds to shrink.

Studies also revealed that, since 2000, cloud zones have been dwindling at a rate of 1.5 percent to 3 percent per decade, allowing more solar radiation to reach Earth’s surface. This is found to be the primary contributor to the observed increase in Earth’s solar absorption. As clouds become less extensive, reducing albedo, they reflect less sunlight, intensifying global warming. With fewer clouds, the warming effect of GHG emissions is amplified by as much as 71 percent more than previously understood. Albedo has fallen to the lowest levels since 1940, contributing about 0.2 degrees Celsius to record heat in 2023.

Real-world effects

We now understand why certain weather patterns have been more common and why they will continue to affect the hydrological stability to which we were adapted. The shift towards high-intensity, short-duration, localised rainfall patterns is occurring because there is more moisture in the atmosphere, leading to heavier rainfall when it does occur. Since a high concentration of aerosols leads to numerous cloud droplets, a decrease in aerosols leads to fewer but larger droplets. This explains the observed increase in the size of hailstones and even raindrops during intense rainfall events.

Given these developments, even after meeting emission targets as envisaged in the Nationally Determined Contributions to reduce emissions, warming will continue—so will cloud contraction, leading to manifestations that disrupt lives and economic activities, particularly those associated with water resources, primarily agriculture.

Additionally, the changes in water flow over and under the land caused by both natural and anthropogenic factors have led to a massive and irreversible decline in soil moisture and groundwater. Developing dry land and depleting groundwater are not just a pulse but a consequence of larger global changes that even researchers have had difficulty grappling with. These findings merely confirm that we are headed towards grievous water scarcity.

Reviving hydrological stability

Reviving hydrological stability must be prioritised more effectively to address the existing economic hardship, which is likely to deepen further with erratic monsoon rain and dry winters. While we have institutions to use available water for energy, or irrigation or drinking water, none address its comprehensive management. Landscape rehydration or flood control—two of the most critical aspects of disrupted hydrological stability that affect our agriculture and environment—are best done by adopting a decentralised approach where individuals and communities take responsibility. For this, the path to reviving hydrological stability must be simplified with less sophisticated equipment and structure.

And here is the entry point. As soon as the rain reaches the ground, water is regulated by the landscape, specifically watersheds, rather than human forces. Our aim should, therefore, be to slow down the flow of runoff during the intense rains, allowing more water to seep into the ground, targeting the revival of dry springs, which are invaluable sources of water for the local environment in the hills. Numerous examples show that slowing runoff also helps reduce the risk of floods. To achieve this, water must remain central to all our development actions for its focused stewardship.